Okay, so the Reds currently sit at 73-55 with 34 games remaining.
Of those 34:
- 15 away
- 19 home
Against the NL Central big boys they're fighting, they have (# of home games in parentheses):
- 7 games vs. STL (4), Reds are 4-8 so far this year,
- 6 vs. PIT (3), including final 3 games of the season at GABP, Reds are 6-7.
Remaining 21 games, with # home games in parentheses and Cincy's record vs. opponent:
- MIL, 6 games (3), 8-5.
- @ COL, 3 games, 1-2
- LAD, 3 games (3), 1-3
- CHC, 3 games (3), 13-3
- @ HOU, 3 games, 0-0
- NYM, 3 games (3), 3-0
So for the 21 "non-STL and PIT" games, 18 will be vs. sub-.500 teams.
Unless they pull a colossal choke, the Reds are a lock for at least a wildcard, and with 13 games vs. STL/PIT they certainly have a chance to make a run at the division.