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Thread: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

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    Member NorCal Reds Fan's Avatar
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    Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    Okay, so the Reds currently sit at 73-55 with 34 games remaining.

    Of those 34:
    • 15 away
    • 19 home


    Against the NL Central big boys they're fighting, they have (# of home games in parentheses):
    • 7 games vs. STL (4), Reds are 4-8 so far this year,
    • 6 vs. PIT (3), including final 3 games of the season at GABP, Reds are 6-7.



    Remaining 21 games, with # home games in parentheses and Cincy's record vs. opponent:

    • MIL, 6 games (3), 8-5.
    • @ COL, 3 games, 1-2
    • LAD, 3 games (3), 1-3
    • CHC, 3 games (3), 13-3
    • @ HOU, 3 games, 0-0
    • NYM, 3 games (3), 3-0

    So for the 21 "non-STL and PIT" games, 18 will be vs. sub-.500 teams.

    Unless they pull a colossal choke, the Reds are a lock for at least a wildcard, and with 13 games vs. STL/PIT they certainly have a chance to make a run at the division.
    Last edited by NorCal Reds Fan; 08-23-2013 at 03:02 PM.

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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    They've got to step it up against those division foes. They can either take the division or get buried, honestly.

    Let's say they go an optimistic 8-5 vs PIT and STL and go, say, 13-8 the w/the other series. That's 21-13 over the last 34 games, which would put their record at 94-68. I think that'd be a lock for at least a WC.
    "I had a cigar in my back pocket...I didn't wanna break it." - Bartholomew "Bump" Bailey

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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    Quote Originally Posted by KYBatsFan View Post
    They've got to step it up against those division foes. They can either take the division or get buried, honestly.

    Let's say they go an optimistic 8-5 vs PIT and STL and go, say, 13-8 the w/the other series. That's 21-13 over the last 34 games, which would put their record at 94-68. I think that'd be a lock for at least a WC.
    The NL isn't deep with good teams this year, so I think even 90 wins gets a wildcard. But personally, even though it could benefit the Reds this year, I hate this second wildcard with just a 1-game "playoff". Should be best-of-3, but I'd prefer just one w/c team.

    The Cards have a bit of an odd remaining schedule...on the front end, it's BRUTAL...including tonight, they play 16 straight vs. ATL, CIN, and PIT, although 10 are @ STL.

    But then it's pretty cupcake for them on back end, all 19 games vs. sub-.500 teams (3 games vs. Nats, currently 63-64). And 12 of those will be at home.

    Pirates' schedule is a bit more "balanced" in that they oscillate between games vs. good teams and a few vs. not-so-good. They have 18 road, 17 home.

    But they also get to finish up with a fairly soft schedule, as final 17 they have 6 vs. Reds, but then 7 vs. Cubs and 4 vs. Padres.

    If I had to bet, I'd say Cards pull it out and win the division, Reds vs. Pirates in the 1-gamer.

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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    I was bitterly disappointed in Homer's game last night. When one of your "aces" gets beat by the wrong Kris Davis and the Brewers at home and lose ground as the Cards beat the Braves and the Pirates beat the Giants...it was like seeing this season in a microcosm of one game. Every time they gain a bit of ground they promptly lose it back. They don't let themselves get buried 6 or 7 back - they get hot and pull close but then they go back to lose one win one or two lose one. They get an injured player back for a week or two then lose them again or lose someone else. It's been a snakebit season in a lot of ways but despite the inference of some that they aren't that deep they keep within a couple games despite the spate of injuries that keep occurring. It's fun/It's frustrating/It's a freakin' darn rollercoaster ride emotionally. I map out these schedule threads with the solemn intent of a general planning battle strategy, looking for single days of advantage where the Reds might gain a single game of ground. Problem is - they confound me by gaining where I see a loss and losing where I see a gain! I am going to call this the "Summer of Tums"

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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I was bitterly disappointed in Homer's game last night. When one of your "aces" gets beat by the wrong Kris Davis and the Brewers at home and lose ground as the Cards beat the Braves and the Pirates beat the Giants...it was like seeing this season in a microcosm of one game. Every time they gain a bit of ground they promptly lose it back. They don't let themselves get buried 6 or 7 back - they get hot and pull close but then they go back to lose one win one or two lose one. They get an injured player back for a week or two then lose them again or lose someone else. It's been a snakebit season in a lot of ways but despite the inference of some that they aren't that deep they keep within a couple games despite the spate of injuries that keep occurring. It's fun/It's frustrating/It's a freakin' darn rollercoaster ride emotionally. I map out these schedule threads with the solemn intent of a general planning battle strategy, looking for single days of advantage where the Reds might gain a single game of ground. Problem is - they confound me by gaining where I see a loss and losing where I see a gain! I am going to call this the "Summer of Tums"
    Yeah, the Reds are my "1A" team, A's are "1B"....and Giants "2". As hard as the Giants have fallen this year, was HOPING they might suck it up and help the Reds out with the Pirates, but no such luck, Pirates are going to sweep.

    As for Reds and A's, very similar in that both teams can just never seem to get on those nice win-12-of-15 tears. Seems like their 'Last 10' in the standings are always 6-4, 5-5. Fortunately for the Reds, by default they'll get one of the w/c slots because the NL is just so weak this year.

    But for as much as the Reds sputter, A's a bit worse and they're at the start of a brutal 13-game stretch, after which winning the NL West will be out of the question, and they'll be in a dogfight with 5-6 other teams for a w/c.

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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    Quote Originally Posted by NorCal Reds Fan View Post
    As for Reds and A's, very similar in that both teams can just never seem to get on those nice win-12-of-15 tears. Seems like their 'Last 10' in the standings are always 6-4, 5-5.
    I'm glad you mentioned the "Last 10" thing because I've thought that the entire season. With the Reds, it seems they're always in the 7-3. 6-4, 5-5, 4-6 range, or at least since late May when they reached 15 games over .500 for the first time. They've basically been a .500 team since then, because they just don't have the consistency on offense to go on an extended tear. They will go as far as their pitching and defense will take them.

    Good thread, by the way.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    June 1-present: .533 winning percentage (40-35) +24 run differential (300-276)
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    The Reds are now two games over .500 since they first hit the 15-over mark in late May. Spin it any way you want, but that's basically .500 baseball since then. The OP is right on the money. This team apparently doesn't have what it takes to go on an extended hot streak. Hopefully it eventually happens in October.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    The Reds are now two games over .500 since they first hit the 15-over mark in late May. Spin it any way you want, but that's basically .500 baseball since then. The OP is right on the money. This team apparently doesn't have what it takes to go on an extended hot streak. Hopefully it eventually happens in October.
    How did I spin anything?

    I posted their record.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    How did I spin anything?

    I posted their record.
    Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.

    jvs

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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    I'm glad you mentioned the "Last 10" thing because I've thought that the entire season. With the Reds, it seems they're always in the 7-3. 6-4, 5-5, 4-6 range, or at least since late May when they reached 15 games over .500 for the first time. They've basically been a .500 team since then, because they just don't have the consistency on offense to go on an extended tear. They will go as far as their pitching and defense will take them.

    Good thread, by the way.
    Thanks. And yeah, part of what I was driving at is that the Reds remaining schedule does set up rather nicely for them to finally get on one of those nice hot streaks. But of course they promptly go out and lose 2 out of 3 to the friggin Brewers at home. Now for 3 @ StL....confidence is not high.

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    It just seems like they get going and then they squelch it all on a series like this one. But all along the Pirates and Cards seem to lose and win at the same time too. These games between each other may be the deciding factor in the end.

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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    Reds: 28 games left – 3 of 9 series left are vs. teams that have winning record, Reds wrap up at home vs. Pirates

    16 home game
    12 road games

    Reds play @ Denver, Milwaukee, Houston and Pitts
    Reds have Cards, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets and Pirates at home

    Pirates: 30 games left – 5 of 10 series left are vs. winning teams, Pirates finish on road at Cincy

    15 home games
    15 road games

    Pirates play @ Milwaukee, Cards, Rangers, Cubs and Reds
    Pirates have Milwukee, Cards, Cubs, Padres, Reds at home

    Cards: 29 games left – 4 of 9 series left are against winning teams, Cards wrap up at home vs. Cubs

    15 home games
    14 road games

    Cards play @ Pitts, Cincy, Denver, Milwukee
    Cards have Pirates,Brewers, Mariners, Nationals and Cubs at home

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    Re: Remaining Schedule (34 games)...

    Odd that w/all the "quality wins" of the past week or so, circumstances have prevented them from making a more dramatic move. Should be interesting seeing how it all shakes out w/no more games vs STL and 6 of the last 9 vs PIT
    "I had a cigar in my back pocket...I didn't wanna break it." - Bartholomew "Bump" Bailey


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