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Thread: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    With the huge amounts of TV money flowing into the game today and in the near future, I think that contract will be no problem at all, unless Votto goes into Josh Hamilton mode right now.
    There has been quite a few articles written recently that the big TV money deals aren't going to be happening like expected..... I hope they are wrong because it will really hamstring those teams who haven't gotten theirs yet when compared to the teams who have, but that thought is out there right now.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron View Post
    I can recall that in 2012, before Joey was injured, at one point it appeared he might threaten the single season record for doubles (67). His power does seem to be diminshed.
    I feel like his comeback months dilute how unbelievably dominant he was last year before the knee injury. OPS pushing 1.150 in late June. I'm in the concerned camp to some degree. We're talking about relative expectations here, not whether or not Votto's been a good player. If Chapman was "only" striking out 12 per 9 it'd be worth raising a question about.

  4. #33
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    I sometimes wonder if Votto is attempting to turn himself into a player that is capable of producing at a high rate for the majority/duration of his contract...an OBP monster, rather than your typical slugger.

    I don't think that is the only thing at play here, but I just wonder about that sometimes.

  5. #34
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Jory's OBP more than makes up for the diminishing power
    Here's the only problem I have with that answer: his OBP has also gone down. It hasn't even remained steady... it's down 40 points. Now, it could just be a "down year" for him, certainly. But it's not like he's making up for the slugging with OBP. Both have gone down this season.

    I don't want to imply there's something wrong with Votto (inasmuch as there can be something "wrong" with a guy having a .401 wOBA), but it's certainly worth noting the difference.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  6. #35
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Here's the only problem I have with that answer: his OBP has also gone down. It hasn't even remained steady... it's down 40 points. Now, it could just be a "down year" for him, certainly. But it's not like he's making up for the slugging with OBP. Both have gone down this season.

    I don't want to imply there's something wrong with Votto (inasmuch as there can be something "wrong" with a guy having a .401 wOBA), but it's certainly worth noting the difference.
    Votto played just 111 games last year.
    .474 is not his real OBP.

  7. #36
    Hisssssssss Yachtzee's Avatar
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    I'm of the mind that it really takes 1 1/2 years for a player to come back to his prior form from a major injury. The player may not feel pain anymore, but your still dealing with issues of muscle atrophy and confidence in the injured body part. It's rare for a player to just come on like gangbusters after injury. I'd like to see how Votto does next year before raising alarms.
    Burn down the disco. Hang the blessed DJ. Because the music that he constantly plays, it says nothing to me about my life.

  8. #37
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Votto played just 111 games last year.
    .474 is not his real OBP.
    He's played 129 thus far this year. Not exactly an apples-to-oranges comparison.

    Nonetheless, should one choose to entirely ignore last year's 111 games, which they shouldn't, the minimal increase in OBP from year's past doesn't make up for a fairly significant drop in slugging.

    Put it this way: before the year, he had a .415 career OBP and a .553 career slugging. he's 18 points above his career OBP but 56 points below his career slugging. If we use the idea that one point of slugging is worth 1.8 points of OBP, then he's still at a net loss of 24 points in Gross Production Average.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  9. #38
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    He's played 129 thus far this year. Not exactly an apples-to-oranges comparison.

    Nonetheless, should one choose to entirely ignore last year's 111 games, which they shouldn't, the minimal increase in OBP from year's past doesn't make up for a fairly significant drop in slugging.

    Put it this way: before the year, he had a .415 career OBP and a .553 career slugging. he's 18 points above his career OBP but 56 points below his career slugging. If we use the idea that one point of slugging is worth 1.8 points of OBP, then he's still at a net loss of 24 points in Gross Production Average.
    You must concede that .474 OBP is simply unsustainable.
    And let's look at Votto's wRC+

    2011: 156
    Career: 156
    2013: 156(1st in NL)

    What's the problem?

  10. #39
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    You must concede that .474 OBP is simply unsustainable.
    And let's look at Votto's wRC+

    2011: 156
    Career: 156
    2013: 156(1st in NL)

    What's the problem?
    I just stated the issue. Forget his .474 OBP in 2012 for a moment. I already stopped focusing on that in my last post. He's a net 24 points of GPA below his career average right now. That in itself isn't an issue if it's merely an isolated case. But if it's indicative of something else, it could be problematic.

    It might just be randomness; a 'down' year for him. Then again, it might not be. It might be something else. No one is saying that the Joey Votto of 2013 isn't still productive. People are looking at the Joey Votto of 2013 and comparing him to the Joey Votto of before and noticing that for one reason or another, his power is down and wondering aloud if there is something more to that.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  12. #40
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    To my (untrained) eye, it just seems that he fouls off so many pitches that he should be driving.

    My concern is that his numbers...especially his OBP...could start to fall if opposing teams really begin to challenge him.

    IMO, they are far more careful with him than is warranted.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

  13. #41
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Joey Votto has been his same superstar self this year...on the road.

    .455/.556/1.011.

    Compared to .411/.435/.845 at home.

    Small samples, yada yada i know. Still weird. I hope his home performance has been the anomoly and corrects to his road (and career) norms, instead of vice versa.

    Edit: 31 EBH on the road to 16 at home in roughly equal PAs and ABs.
    Last edited by Fil3232; 08-24-2013 at 06:50 PM.

  14. #42
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Comparing JV against himself is one thing, but lets see how he compares with the rest of MLB:

    150 hitters have enough plate appearances to qualify for the "batting title"

    OBP 2nd
    SLG 24th
    OPS 7th
    RC/27 4th


    He's been amazing this year. Which is scary for the league as I have no doubt what's to come.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  16. #43
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Me thinks he's pressing at home. He's human after all. I think.

  17. #44
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Quote Originally Posted by Fil3232 View Post
    Me thinks he's pressing at home. He's human after all. I think.
    We've been through this. He's a Canadian cyborg killing machine from 2045 that was sent back in time to destroy America for winning 30 Stanley cups in a row starting in 2015.

    When he arrived, he threw off his programming and decided to use his abilities to become the greatest athlete Canada has ever produced. However, even in 2045, Canadian killer cyborgs can't skate, so he chose baseball.

    Obviously.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  19. #45
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Joey Votto and his magically shrinking SLG%

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Comparing JV against himself is one thing, but lets see how he compares with the rest of MLB:

    150 hitters have enough plate appearances to qualify for the "batting title"

    OBP 2nd
    SLG 24th
    OPS 7th
    RC/27 4th


    He's been amazing this year. Which is scary for the league as I have no doubt what's to come.
    Undoubtedly he's still extremely effective. That's not in dispute. I am only comparing to himself because it could [emphasis] be indicative of something more problematic that his power is vanishing.

    The Reds are on the hook for a ton of money. I applaud them for having the courage to sign him. But if the loss in power turns out to be a trend, the Reds could find themselves dishing out a lot of money later for not nearly enough production.

    For now, I am assuming it's just noise. But I don't think it's fair to be dismissive of the potential for something else.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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