Bailey and Chapman are very tradeable commodities. Bailey's offseason value will be higher in the winter than on July 31st. They may well let him ride, but If they can't ink out an extension then I give it 50/50 that he is gone - which might necessitate offering Arroyo a 2/25 type deal.
Chapman is a complete WC. He may no longer break the bank by opting out of his contract.