The Reds win the trade...

[oregonred]

You think another team is going to give us value for a free-agent-to-be with a history of inconsistency and a mercurial nature? Doubt it. If we want to solve other issues we have by trading a pitcher, you have to trade guys that are team-controlled for a while yet...so, Cingrani.

So trade a cheap, above average, lefty rotation fixture under club control until after the 2019 season to fill a gap in the rotation??

Bailey and Chapman are very tradeable commodities. Bailey's offseason value will be higher in the winter than on July 31st. They may well let him ride, but If they can't ink out an extension then I give it 50/50 that he is gone - which might necessitate offering Arroyo a 2/25 type deal.

Chapman is a complete WC. He may no longer break the bank by opting out of his contract.

[mth123]

So trade a cheap, above average, lefty rotation fixture under club control until after the 2019 season to fill a gap in the rotation??

Bailey and Chapman are very tradeable commodities. Bailey's offseason value will be higher in the winter than on July 31st. They may well let him ride, but If they can't ink out an extension then I give it 50/50 that he is gone - which might necessitate offering Arroyo a 2/25 type deal.

Chapman is a complete WC. He may no longer break the bank by opting out of his contract.

He doesn't opt out. He get's the same guaranteed money that was in his contract in the form of a bonus, then he goes to arb to get what the market will pay for a first time arb eligible guy. My guess is that his 2014 compensation will be a $3 Million bonus which was the salary under his contract originally, $1.25 Million bonus payable in November which will be paid every year until 2020 and whatever his arb award turns out to be as a two time All Star closer. My guess is around $7 Million for a total cost of 11.25 Million. This season his compensation is a $2 Million Salary and a $1.5 Million bonus payable in November. If the Reds can find a taker it would create salary space as well as bring back at least one young building block player and two or three young cheap guys who can contribute. It's the right move to make IMO, but Broxton's prognosis, Marshall's health and the ability to bring Parra back on a reasonable deal may have some impact on the decision. I imagine they'll have a better idea about all of that by the winter meetings.