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Thread: Second Half Surges

  1. #1
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Second Half Surges

    Lately we've seen guys who really struggled most of the season step forward. Ryan Lamarre, Billy Hamilton, Ismael Guillon, Juan Duran, Kyle Waldrop, Henry Rodriguez and others are seemingly performing much better in the second half than they were for most of the year.

    So, is this a reason for hope or a mirage? I wonder if these guys are just performing against more watered down competition than earlier in the year. Most of the guys making the improvements are guys who have stayed at their level all season. Could it be that the better players who they were struggling against have all advanced to the next level and now they are just faring better against guys making a jump from a level that these guys have already mastered? I tend to view these late season minor league surges in a similar light as I view September numbers in the big leagues. It's good that they've gotten better results, but I take the idea that they've actually improved with a huge grain of salt. It's possible some adjustments have been made to explain the change, but I haven't really heard any discussion of any adjustments that these guys have made.

    Anyone know if there is anything that any of these guys have specifically done to lead to the improvement? I'm pretty skeptical and hope that these guys have raised their value a bit and the team cashes a few of them in to help fill holes on the big league roster. I'd wager that most will revert to struggles next year.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #2
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Second Half Surges

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Lately we've seen guys who really struggled most of the season step forward. Ryan Lamarre, Billy Hamilton, Ismael Guillon, Juan Duran, Kyle Waldrop, Henry Rodriguez and others are seemingly performing much better in the second half than they were for most of the year.

    So, is this a reason for hope or a mirage? I wonder if these guys are just performing against more watered down competition than earlier in the year. Most of the guys making the improvements are guys who have stayed at their level all season. Could it be that the better players who they were struggling against have all advanced to the next level and now they are just faring better against guys making a jump from a level that these guys have already mastered? I tend to view these late season minor league surges in a similar light as I view September numbers in the big leagues. It's good that they've gotten better results, but I take the idea that they've actually improved with a huge grain of salt. It's possible some adjustments have been made to explain the change, but I haven't really heard any discussion of any adjustments that these guys have made.

    Anyone know if there is anything that any of these guys have specifically done to lead to the improvement? I'm pretty skeptical and hope that these guys have raised their value a bit and the team cashes a few of them in to help fill holes on the big league roster. I'd wager that most will revert to struggles next year.
    I'd love to hear others opinion on this, but I wouldn't expect the overall talent at AAA to significantly shift until September. Until then I imagine the inflow/outflow of talent has a marginal overall effect.

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    Re: Second Half Surges

    Good article on Guillon at milb.com.

    Legit SP prospect, IMO. 3 quality pitches. At some point he'll have to move quickly since he's on the 40-man. Good sign that he worked through significant issues this year to finish strong. He's got the stuff.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Second Half Surges

    I don't think that there would be a huge change in the day to day AAA talent level to account for the improvement in the mentioned Reds players. I would think improved performance comes from getting acclimating to their team role and learning how to maximize performance. Hamilton has increased his SB rate, guys like Soto/Rodriguez/etc. are playing everyday instead of the occasional platoon during roster turnover. The later in the minor league year the more defined players' roles become through attrition and fighting for playoff spots.

  6. #5
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Second Half Surges

    AAA is a roster depth league, so I kind of buy the argument that the talent level stays roughly the same. So what about lower level guys like Lamarre? Lower levels seem to be prospect levels and not a roster depth level. Good players move quickly through only to be replaced by younger ones who aren't as advanced. Is that why we're seeing some guys come on in the late season?

    Still really skeptical of guys like Duran, Lamarre and even Waldrop.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Member powersackers's Avatar
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    Re: Second Half Surges

    I was ready to write Lamarre off at the All Star break. I was wrong about that. .845 OPS for him Post ASG. Juan Duran has had a slight second half power surge, but still stinks and pretty much has at every level his entire career. Waldrop still seems like a future major league on the rise to me; as does Billy, Ismael and Henry.
    Last edited by powersackers; 08-25-2013 at 12:07 PM.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

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    Re: Second Half Surges

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I'd love to hear others opinion on this, but I wouldn't expect the overall talent at AAA to significantly shift until September. Until then I imagine the inflow/outflow of talent has a marginal overall effect.
    Minor league regular season ends around September 1. Unless you're referring to the playoffs, which go a bit deeper.

    It's very hard to know why minor leaguers improve at the end of the season. Can't really speculate. Somehow I'd guess that Billy Hamilton's improved hitting is due to a season getting used to AAA pitching. Lamarre, no idea. We'll find out next season, for those who remain with the Reds.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-25-2013 at 03:17 PM.

  9. #8
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Second Half Surges

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Minor league regular season ends around September 1. Unless you're referring to the playoffs, which go a bit deeper.
    Wasn't even considering that.


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