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Thread: Questions about the power shortage

  1. #1
    Haunted by walks
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    Questions about the power shortage

    The conventional wisdom is that power is down across the majors. The only explanation I've seen is that it's due to the post-PEDs era. Have any other explanations emerged?

    Are the current leaders, Chris Davis, Cabrera, Encarnacion(!), Alvarez and Goldschmidt, hangers-on from the previous era or the true talent that shows when the others drop away in the post-PEDs era?

    If you're looking at a player who all evidence indicates is a good citizen, and his power numbers are down, and you say, don't worry, power numbers are down across the leagues in the post-PEDs era, what are the implications of that?

    I wonder if there are other explanations as well.

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  3. #2
    Member Kiko's Avatar
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    Re: Questions about the power shortage

    Another explanation I have heard is that there are more K's due to more power pitchers. I haven't compared the numbers to the steroid era so that could be another contribution to why HR's are down.

  4. #3
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Questions about the power shortage

    This is the first year that blood is being tested for PEDs.
    Much more effective than urine testing.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

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  5. #4
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Questions about the power shortage

    Quote Originally Posted by Kiko View Post
    Another explanation I have heard is that there are more K's due to more power pitchers. I haven't compared the numbers to the steroid era so that could be another contribution to why HR's are down.
    And, with medical techniques improving, you're seeing a lot fewer guys turn into Paul Wilson on their way to the majors.
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  6. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Questions about the power shortage

    I wonder if the power pitching surge is less about getting more strikeouts (and thus fewer balls in play) than it is having more at bats reach 2 strikes. I'd be curious in those numbers.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #6
    Member Beltway's Avatar
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    Re: Questions about the power shortage

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I wonder if the power pitching surge is less about getting more strikeouts (and thus fewer balls in play) than it is having more at bats reach 2 strikes. I'd be curious in those numbers.
    I wouldn't be surprised if this is true. There has been a trend over the last 20+ years where hitters have been seeing more pitches per plate appearance. It used to be that most hitters would take a swing at the first good pitch they saw. Now many (if not most) have this "work the count" philosophy which makes them more likely to strike out. You can't strike out on a 0-0 count.

    What's interesting about this trend is that pitchers are now throwing more first pitch strikes than in the past. You'd think more hitters would be aware of this and jump on the first pitch, and there are some players in the league who do, but not enough to alter the trend.

  8. #7
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Questions about the power shortage

    Better pitching. Look around the league and the kinds of arms that almost everyone has. How many relievers are coming out of the bullpen who aren't throwing 93+? The Reds have LeCure and well, that is it. Everyone else is bringing the heat. Everyone has a bullpen like that, perhaps not as good across the board as ours is, but with arms that have the fastball velocities like that.

    There is something to the guys working the count too much theory and leading to pitchers counts.

    I also believe that pitchers have the advantage with scouting reports over hitters today with Pitch F/X and video being available to both the players and to the guys who are creating scouting reports for the team.

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  10. #8
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: Questions about the power shortage

    I've seen a few articles attributing it to the tablet/ipad. Software that lets pitchers see every swing a batter has had on a 0-2 slider to a 2-0 fastball. So far it is helping the pitchers mote than the hitters. Sorry typing on phone or would give a more lengthy response/breakdown.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  11. #9
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: Questions about the power shortage

    I think it could "possibly" be due to the cooler summer we have had this year. It seems like the ball carries better in hot weather and this year in many areas of the country the weather has been far cooler than normal..... Just a thought.
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