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Thread: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

  1. #16
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Hamilton. He has only 1 plus skill and it's one that peaks around age 22.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Hamilton. He has only 1 plus skill and it's one that peaks around age 22.
    Yes, but that one plus skill shows up in three different parts of his game. It makes him a better hitter. It makes him a better defender. It makes him a better base runner.

    Now, how long the speed lasts at the point that it currently is at and makes him just incredibly elite can be debated, but that one plus skill he does have, running faster than just about everyone, improves several parts of his game.

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  5. #18
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    So much of internet/publication minor league ratings are based on current stats. I doubt (Doug will correct me) that major league front offices and scouts put very much importance on current stats as do fans and some writers.

    Hamilton is a young player, rushed to AAA, very young for that level, who is hitting better in the second half and whose major skill is speed and stealing ability. I don't know how anyone can judge his ultimate major league career from this 2013 season.

    He's hitting around .260 at AAA as a 22 year old. I can't see how we can say he is overrated based on that.

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  7. #19
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes, but that one plus skill shows up in three different parts of his game. It makes him a better hitter. It makes him a better defender. It makes him a better base runner.

    Now, how long the speed lasts at the point that it currently is at and makes him just incredibly elite can be debated, but that one plus skill he does have, running faster than just about everyone, improves several parts of his game.
    I agree that his speed shows up in multiple places. But what room does he have to improve?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I agree that his speed shows up in multiple places. But what room does he have to improve?
    Improving his contact rate. Improving his power (Doubt he is ever a HR type of guy, but he has solid gap power that he simply doesn't use enough because of other flaws in his swing).

    I think that the pendulum has swung back a little bit too far on Hamilton for some people. I thought he was a little overrated coming into the year, but think he may now be underrated by some (fans at least). I still think the ultimate upside for Hamilton could be MVP caliber production (not that I ever think he will contend for actual MVP's, but he could be a 6 WAR type of player if things go perfect).

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  10. #21
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    HRod. I was really a fan until he hit AAA. Through AA he looked like a hitting machine - not a ton of power but a line drive stroking .300 hitting machine. Thought sure he would find a role (because his defense was always gonna be a bugaboo) as a utility guy/pinch hitter/maybe DH in the AL. I expected him to be traded actually, a key piece in a deal with an AL team where his bat could play. Then his bat went poof. Actually his BABIP has fallen from pretty lofty levels to a more normal .311 and his walk pct is the same blah 5-6% with the resulting .273 BA and .316 OBP being the expected result. His BABIP in his best years? .372 (.340 BA)/.361 (.327 BA)/.386 (.348 BA). Lesson. Always pay attention to the numbers within the numbers.

  11. #22
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Yeah, I find it pretty hilarious how we get calls for H-Rod to become the regular 3B everytime Frazier has a bad game. He really can't do anything.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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  13. #23
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    How about players that are currently doing well enough not to be a disappointment but are still actually overrated? It's one thing to call out Hamilton or H rod or whomever now, but who's heading for a fall? My pick at the moment is Junior Arias. He's not getting enough criticism for his walk rate. I think he's just not going to hold up as he advances and his ceiling is pretty low.

    Hamilton's troubles weren't really completely foreseeable other than the lack of power leading to poor results against better pitching. Same thing for H Rod. He's never had a lot of power. These conclusions should lead me to Mejias-Brean, as well, although he's still developing power a la Drew Stubbs perhaps. I'm not overly thrilled with him still being in Dayton, so I'll say he's a tad overrated. It's a down year for the farm and he's gotten a lot of attention like Bryson Smith or Steven Selsky did last year.

  14. #24
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Mejias-Brean would still be a surprise for me, though, if he really broke out and became a regular player. He has some nice projectable athleticism but it doesn't translate to the field much of the time. Arias has gotten some helium for a guy with pretty pedestrian numbers. He would need to really step up his actual production before I'd get excited. Low OBP, slugging is just okay not great. Runs really well. 476 PAs this season in 2 levels - 18 BBs that is worrisome.

  15. #25
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Phil Ervin

    Not basing this off of scouting reports or numbers, but a general feeling I have gotten from redszoners. He barely has any time at rookie ball and low A and he is being talked about like he is a for sure thing. To me, for a top pick out of college to do anything but play well in Billings and Dayton is a disappointment, he is doing what he should at this point, the real indicators will come in high A and double A.

    I am not saying that he will not reach his potential and be a very good pick, but for the time being I believe he is being overrated by reds fans.

  16. #26
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    I cannot remember being less impressed with a big money signeee than I was with Yorman.
    I know...young for his league and all....but it won't shock me at all if he turns into a pumpkin.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  17. #27
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    I cannot remember being less impressed with a big money signeee than I was with Yorman.
    I know...young for his league and all....but it won't shock me at all if he turns into a pumpkin.
    I really think people underestimate just how young he has been. Until 2012, he had never faced a pitcher that was younger than he was. This season, he has faced one pitcher all year younger than he is. In his career, he has all of 22 plate appearances against pitchers younger than him.

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  19. #28
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Amir Garrett, Lutz, Rogers, Henry Rodriguez (by Redszone)

    Travieso

    Josh Ravin (by Reds)

  20. #29
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I really think people underestimate just how young he has been. Until 2012, he had never faced a pitcher that was younger than he was. This season, he has faced one pitcher all year younger than he is. In his career, he has all of 22 plate appearances against pitchers younger than him.
    Jose Guillen is always my comp. Guillen was a full time player in the majors at 21 which would be the equivalent of Yorman manning left field for the reds next year. I don't think Yorman will get there, but I think he's a valid comp.

    Now, Guillen had 6000 major league at bats which is a career anybody would be proud of, but.....
    While he was in the majors he wasn't really any good till he was 27 years old.
    While I don't believe in "winning player cardinal voodoo," in Guillen's 14 year career he sniffed the playoff's once.
    It's unfair to characterize a young man as a head case, but the young Guillen sounded a LOT like the young Yorman.
    Even as an established player, there were a lot of teams that couldn't wait to get rid of Jose Guillen.
    For the most part Guillen's career can be summed up as the second or third best player on pretty terrible teams.

    ....It's my opinion and I've certainly been wrong before, but if Yorman has more than one productive season in the next six years I will be surprised and with his contract situation that's as much as the reds will get out of him.

    The reds have done remarkable work keeping guys in the minors as long as they possibly could and then ending up creaming off the peak seasons of marginal talents... Yorman goes entirely against that grain of thought.

    I know eyeball evaluations are prone to all kinds of bias, but Yorman just never managed to impress me. For the most part I've been able to "see" major league talent in Dayton. I just didn't see it with Yorman. Fwiw, I liked Duran better and I don't see much in him either.

    It will not disappoint me at all if I'm wrong.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  21. #30
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Add in the fact Guillen was a ped user.


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