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Thread: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    For the most part I've been able to "see" major league talent in Dayton. I just didn't see it with Yorman. Fwiw, I liked Duran better and I don't see much in him either.

    It will not disappoint me at all if I'm wrong.
    A few problems with this IMO.

    First, In Dayton it was well documented that Yorman, the 18-year-old, had some major stuff going on in his life and that he had an "effort" problem.

    That is the guy that you saw. That however wasn't the guy when he was 19 or now that he is 20. Talking to people who are in and around the organization, it has been night and day.

    As for the whole part where you have been able to see Major League talent in Dayton and didn't see it with Yorman, I guess I have to ask about your baseline. Were you comparing him to other 18 and 19 year olds or just the league in general? It makes a pretty big difference. Realistically, the amount of 18 or 19 year olds that have come through Dayton is very limited. In the last 8 years it has been Bruce, Soto, Torreyes, Duran and now this year with Winker and Rahier. With Yorman, that makes 1 teenager per year.

    I will also say that I saw Yorman both years in Dayton. The tools were there. The execution wasn't. What I have seen this year is such a large jump forward in execution is incredible.

    I will echo something that redsof72 will bring up from time to time though, not all scouts are in agreement on players and some times you will get big variances in evaluations.

    A scout I talked to who saw Yorman in Bakersfield this year absolutely raved about him. We were talking about him for a minute and he asked me about my thoughts. At the time I told him that I hadn't seen him this season, but that I loved the tools but his plate discipline (based on what I had seen coming into 2013) was a big drawback. He quickly corrected me in that it was no longer a problem, then went on to rave more about the tools.

    A few weeks ago when I was in Pensacola I talked with another scout who wasn't so impressed with him. He said he didn't really care how young he was, that if you are in AA he wants to see results and .270 without home runs didn't do it for him.

    Clearly different strokes for different folks I guess, but the tools stand out for me when I watch him play and always have. The difference for me is that now, the production and execution is starting to show up too.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    A few weeks ago when I was in Pensacola I talked with another scout who wasn't so impressed with him. He said he didn't really care how young he was, that if you are in AA he wants to see results and .270 without home runs didn't do it for him.
    Yeah. There comes a time where results are what matter and looking at what I saw on the field and the results and the fact that he's already on the 40 man roster....It's just tough for me to see that player bloom in the near future.

    As I said before...it won't bother me a bit if I'm wrong.

    (and...yes to all those teens with the caveat that Rahier would be a lot more interesting if they would push him back to second. Pena was a teen here as well and I would back off Duran given Wily Mo's eventual fate. Votto was a teen here, but I didn't see him till he was a lookout and he was a beast by then.)
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    I think Winker a tad overrated. I like him, even a lot. But I'm not over-the-moon about a slugging leftfielder in A ball.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    I think Winker a tad overrated. I like him, even a lot. But I'm not over-the-moon about a slugging leftfielder in A ball.
    I can almost get on board with this, but the overall production is good to great. I think he's rated appropriately within the Reds system.

  7. #35
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    I think Winker a tad overrated. I like him, even a lot. But I'm not over-the-moon about a slugging leftfielder in A ball.
    Agree and one of the reasons I think Mejias-Brean should be rated higher in most pre-season lists.

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    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    I think Winker a tad overrated. I like him, even a lot. But I'm not over-the-moon about a slugging leftfielder in A ball.
    Do you (and the others who liked this post) believe he is overrated because of his defensive position? I agree that he isn't an ultra-elite prospect like Stephenson because of this, but I can't think of a better #2 prospect in the Reds' system. All the guy does is hit and I think he will be able to play a pretty average defensive leftfield in the majors, especially when he is young.

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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Agree and one of the reasons I think Mejias-Brean should be rated higher in most pre-season lists.
    I guess it depends on how large of a premium you place on a glove. Apparently SMB could be an above average defensive third baseman, but he has pretty much only played first this year.

    Winker has SMB beat in BB rate, ISO and they have similar K rates. Plus, Winker has shown more speed using the only quantifiable evidence I have in 6 SB for Winker and 3 for SMB. Offensively, Winker appears better than SMB. Plus, Winker is younger.

    I wouldn't trade a Winker for a SMB. Winker has more value to me.

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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    Do you (and the others who liked this post) believe he is overrated because of his defensive position?
    Partially, for two reasons. First it's obviously not a premium defensive position. Second, it doesn't speak very well about his atheleticism that he's a DH/LF as young man. I could be off base on this, I'm just going by B-R.

    Also, a lot of his OPS is walks. While I love walks and don't care much about BA in the Bigs, for projecting farmsters I like to see higher BA.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Winker appears to be a better pure hitter than SMB. Better ISO and walk rate and I am learning those are huge in assessing young hitters. But, SMB has Winker beat hands down athletically. SMB is a beast athlete. But baseball is more a game of skill where you apply learned/innate skills to athletic talent than vice versa. Not sure SMB's trump card will ever outplay Winker's innate hitting skill. SMB may well show up on a few more highlight reel plays, pulling amazing one off feats.

    I like them both - Winker as the steadier productive hitter, SMB as the flashier more inconsistent performer.
    Last edited by RedlegJake; 08-30-2013 at 02:23 PM.

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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    I like both. Winker, however, is not just younger--he's 28 months younger. That gives him, IMHO, a large edge over SMB.

  13. #41
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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    FTR - It seems that the Reds have told SMB that they want to work on him moving to catcher this offseason.

    It may not work, but if it does, it would certainly boost his value.

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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    I think I heard SMB is a pretty good defensive 3B, they must really like Tanner Rahier over at 3B to make this move, correct?

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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Partially, for two reasons. First it's obviously not a premium defensive position. Second, it doesn't speak very well about his atheleticism that he's a DH/LF as young man. I could be off base on this, I'm just going by B-R.

    Also, a lot of his OPS is walks. While I love walks and don't care much about BA in the Bigs, for projecting farmsters I like to see higher BA.
    I have seen Winker play and he by no means looked like a Yonder Alonso in LF. He isn't the most athletic guy on the Dragons, but he certainly is not the least athletic. Don't worry too much about that.

    As for the walks, I don't know what to say. Walks are good and he is good at taking them. Plus, a .281 BA behind a .308 BABIP is nothing to sneeze at. By cutting down his K rate just a bit more and/or getting just a little more BABIP "luck"," Winker could easily be a .290-.300 hitter. Add a double digit walk rate on top of that with a .180+ ISO and we are talking about a premium bat.

    Stephenson is the only guy on the farm with more value than Winker.

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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Winker is still my #2 right now mainly due to his performance at his age. I think he probably has some things to work on mentally to grind and I am not sure about his opposite field power.

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    Re: Who is the Most overrated Reds Minor Leaguer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    FTR - It seems that the Reds have told SMB that they want to work on him moving to catcher this offseason.

    It may not work, but if it does, it would certainly boost his value.
    Wow. How does that work with him moving up to A+ and AA? I hope this doesn't slow his hitting progress. Very interesting move, though.


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