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Thread: Sabermetric Question

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  1. #1
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Sabermetric Question

    Many on here have said how overrated or unproductive Jacoby Ellsbury is.

    I'll use him for my question.

    Ellsbury's OB% is at .354 (pretty good) but his slugging is a powerless .416 which results in a pedestrian .770 OBS....my question is how are his SB figured in and how is that computed?

    This year he has 47 SB and only 4 CS....that is very significant....I know some of those followed a walk but could you not adjust his Slug % (not entirely accurately but a good idea of how much)...he has been thrown out 4x....so minus 4 total bases....but has moved up a base 47 times so add 47 to the total base total. Doing this takes his .416 and turns it into a .501 slugging....which pumps him up to a .855 OPS

    I know one of the flaws is that off of some of his walks that the runners on 3rd never moved and a SB wouldn't be the same importance as the slug % I added because the runner didn't advance or score. Also if he had a runner on 1st or a slow one on 2nd and he singled, again adding a single and a SB or a BB and a SB takes away from the accurate measurement of the slugging % stat. Of course every player has some SB to add to it so for me to add his that way would have to also do everyone else's.

    Anyways....what metric does this for me and a brief description of how it's figured. Pointing out flaws within it are welcome also.

    Thanks
    Last edited by Ironman92; 08-25-2013 at 09:46 PM.

  2. #2
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    SteelSD used something he called speed adjusted OPS.

    Do a search and take a look.

    Runs Created has a stolen base function also



    About your stat: if you're adding total bases to slugging, you have to take away OBP and bases for caught stealing
    Last edited by Raisor; 08-25-2013 at 10:01 PM.
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  3. #3
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    SteelSD used something he called speed adjusted OPS.

    Do a search and take a look.

    Runs Created has a stolen base function also



    About your stat: if you're adding total bases to slugging, you have to take away OBP and bases for caught stealing
    I took away his CS in total bases

  4. #4
    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by raisor View Post
    steelsd used something he called speed adjusted ops.
    (h+bb+hbp-cs)/(ab+bb+hbp+s)=saobp
    (tb+sb-cs)/(ab)=saslg
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  6. #5
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenlord View Post
    (h+bb+hbp-cs)/(ab+bb+hbp+s)=saobp
    (tb+sb-cs)/(ab)=saslg
    That's the formula. I had a lengthy discussion with Steel on this. He actually did want to make the penalty for being thrown out at 3rd bigger than a CS of 2B. He also wanted to add pick-offs, but left it at that due to ease of gathering the data IIRC.
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  7. #6
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    DatDude's OPS would be sunk if CS and baserunning blunders were deducted.

  8. #7
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Can't just add them to SLG because the reason SLG is valuable is because it not only accounts for your bases, but it also accounts in how many bases you move runners who are on base when you get a hit.

  9. #8
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Can't just add them to SLG because the reason SLG is valuable is because it not only accounts for your bases, but it also accounts in how many bases you move runners who are on base when you get a hit.
    I said that as one of my flaws. I guess deducting the CS from Slug and OB% would give a truer formula for figuring...though like the flaw in adding to slug % as it doesn't figure in the moving of runners to create runs....deducting from OB% seems flawed if he is on with a double and gets thrown out stealing....or if he was walked with bases loaded and forced in a run then was CS as a base opened....anyways rare I know but so is him getting thrown out once every 35 games.

    I guess I just don't see why the CS has to be deducted twice.....but agree it's more accurate when adding SB to Slug %

  10. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    I said that as one of my flaws. I guess deducting the CS from Slug and OB% would give a truer formula for figuring...though like the flaw in adding to slug % as it doesn't figure in the moving of runners to create runs....deducting from OB% seems flawed if he is on with a double and gets thrown out stealing....or if he was walked with bases loaded and forced in a run then was CS as a base opened....anyways rare I know but so is him getting thrown out once every 35 games.

    I guess I just don't see why the CS has to be deducted twice.....but agree it's more accurate when adding SB to Slug %
    Don't try to add or subtract it to either. They are all measuring very different things.

    OBP and SLG have value because of what they are measuring and steals/caught stealing isn't it.

  11. #10
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    I said that as one of my flaws. I guess deducting the CS from Slug and OB% would give a truer formula for figuring...though like the flaw in adding to slug % as it doesn't figure in the moving of runners to create runs....deducting from OB% seems flawed if he is on with a double and gets thrown out stealing....or if he was walked with bases loaded and forced in a run then was CS as a base opened....anyways rare I know but so is him getting thrown out once every 35 games.

    I guess I just don't see why the CS has to be deducted twice.....but agree it's more accurate when adding SB to Slug %
    Because not only does it eliminate a time on base (deducting from OBP) but it eliminates the bases acquired. If you had the data, you should really deduct 2 if caught stealing 3B (since the runner was already at 2B) and 3 if Caught Stealing home. The farther along on the bases the runner is, the more damaging the CS is. Now if there was just a way to deduct for other times thrown out on the bases. Times picked-off when going back to the base occupied do not count as a caught stealing and need to be deducted as well. Times thrown out stretching should also be deducted. And something like we saw with Choo at home plate today should also carry a big deduction.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  12. #11
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Because not only does it eliminate a time on base (deducting from OBP) but it eliminates the bases acquired. If you had the data, you should really deduct 2 if caught stealing 3B (since the runner was already at 2B) and 3 if Caught Stealing home. The farther along on the bases the runner is, the more damaging the CS is. Now if there was just a way to deduct for other times thrown out on the bases. Times picked-off when going back to the base occupied do not count as a caught stealing and need to be deducted as well. Times thrown out stretching should also be deducted. And something like we saw with Choo at home plate today should also carry a big deduction.
    By that thought would you not get more credit for stealing 3rd and especially home?

  13. #12
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    By that thought would you not get more credit for stealing 3rd and especially home?
    No, because you still only added one base to what you already had. You got credit for 1st and 2nd when you got there. When you are caught at 3rd, you are losing the two bases previously acquired.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #13
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Interesting Raisor

    On the RC stat....how does it use it?

  15. #14
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Interesting Raisor

    On the RC stat....how does it use it?
    Runs created
    [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[BB - IBB + HBP] + .52[SH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)
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  16. #15
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Runs created
    [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[BB - IBB + HBP] + .52[SH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)
    Lol thanks

    Why the subtraction of IBB from BB?

    And where did the .26 and .52 come from?


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