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Thread: Sabermetric Question

  1. #16
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    SBs are more flash than substance. I don't care if the Reds ever steal another base. Just stop getting thrown out so much.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    mdccclxix (08-26-2013)

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  4. #17
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Because not only does it eliminate a time on base (deducting from OBP) but it eliminates the bases acquired. If you had the data, you should really deduct 2 if caught stealing 3B (since the runner was already at 2B) and 3 if Caught Stealing home. The farther along on the bases the runner is, the more damaging the CS is. Now if there was just a way to deduct for other times thrown out on the bases. Times picked-off when going back to the base occupied do not count as a caught stealing and need to be deducted as well. Times thrown out stretching should also be deducted. And something like we saw with Choo at home plate today should also carry a big deduction.
    By that thought would you not get more credit for stealing 3rd and especially home?

  5. #18
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    SBs are more flash than substance. I don't care if the Reds ever steal another base. Just stop getting thrown out so much.
    I feel 75% or better is worthwhile....but with the Reds players available I agree mostly, but believe there are obvious times.

  6. #19
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    By that thought would you not get more credit for stealing 3rd and especially home?
    No, because you still only added one base to what you already had. You got credit for 1st and 2nd when you got there. When you are caught at 3rd, you are losing the two bases previously acquired.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  7. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    I like to look at the active and all-time stats and glance for red flags....RC looks pretty solid but guys like Pete Rose and Yaz seem too high as to a few others that played forever...but Yaz and Rose had a ton of walks....it doesn't seem they should be right next to Rickey Henderson as he has their longevity, more walks and his net SB is insane.
    I just looked at WAR. Henderson has about 50% more WAR than Rose. I didn't look at Yaz.

  8. #21
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    No, because you still only added one base to what you already had. You got credit for 1st and 2nd when you got there. When you are caught at 3rd, you are losing the two bases previously acquired.
    Is stealing 3rd more valuable to a team trying to win than a steal of 2nd? What about the steal of home?

  9. #22
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I just looked at WAR. Henderson has about 50% more WAR than Rose. I didn't look at Yaz.
    I don't particularly like WAR as it's too positional.

  10. #23
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    I feel 75% or better is worthwhile....but with the Reds players available I agree mostly, but believe there are obvious times.
    Maybe if you add the times picked-off going back to the base occupied to the equation. It doesn't count as an attempt or as a CS, but it's still a negative consequence of the running game.

    There are a handful of guys who really impact the game with SBs. Hamilton may yet be one. Eric Davis did as well. Actually, young Brandon Phillips had a good success rate. He has really stunk the last few years. I was never keen on Freel or many of the other reds runners the last 15 years or so. Morgan and Davis were the ones who really mattered. Bobby Tolan had a couple good years running. Dave Collins had one awesome year. Guys like Tolan, Phillips and Collins also had years where they were thrown out too much. Unless its a real special threat, I just think guys should stay put. Give me guy who can hit with reasonable defense and you can have the guys who can run real fast.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #24
    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by raisor View Post
    steelsd used something he called speed adjusted ops.
    (h+bb+hbp-cs)/(ab+bb+hbp+s)=saobp
    (tb+sb-cs)/(ab)=saslg
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    Raisor (08-25-2013)

  13. #25
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Is stealing 3rd more valuable to a team trying to win than a steal of 2nd? What about the steal of home?
    If you are already on second, stealing third just adds one base. If you hit a double and are caught stealing 3rd, your two bases acquired for the double were given back as if they never happened (though I acknowledge that the double may have advanced other runners, so maybe deducting the entire two is too much). Still getting thrown out at 3B removes a runner from scoring position. Stealing third, adds a lot less value than stealing second IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #26
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Maybe if you add the times picked-off going back to the base occupied to the equation. It doesn't count as an attempt or as a CS, but it's still a negative consequence of the running game.

    There are a handful of guys who really impact the game with SBs. Hamilton may yet be one. Eric Davis did as well. Actually, young Brandon Phillips had a good success rate. He has really stunk the last few years. I was never keen on Freel or many of the other reds runners the last 15 years or so. Morgan and Davis were the ones who really mattered. Bobby Tolan had a couple good years running. Dave Collins had one awesome year. Guys like Tolan, Phillips and Collins also had years where they were thrown out too much. Unless its a real special threat, I just think guys should stay put. Give me guy who can hit with reasonable defense and you can have the guys who can run real fast.
    Morgan, Davis and Larkin were the only ones I thought to be real effective

  15. #27
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenlord View Post
    (h+bb+hbp-cs)/(ab+bb+hbp+s)=saobp
    (tb+sb-cs)/(ab)=saslg
    That's the formula. I had a lengthy discussion with Steel on this. He actually did want to make the penalty for being thrown out at 3rd bigger than a CS of 2B. He also wanted to add pick-offs, but left it at that due to ease of gathering the data IIRC.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #28
    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    you would be correct. before banning, we had concluded something to the affect that getting thrown out at 3rd was about 1.91 times worse; we just couldn't figure out if he should weigh if it was with 0, 1, or 2 outs into the equation.
    the store for all your blade, costuming (in any regard), leather (also in any regard), and steel craft needs.www.facebook.com/tdhshop


    yes, this really is how we make our living.

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    mth123 (08-25-2013)

  18. #29
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Morgan, Davis and Larkin were the only ones I thought to be real effective
    Yeah, I'd add Larkin to the effective list. Funny the guys who are the most valuable base stealers are guys who do other things that are even more valuable. Guys whose entire game is stealing bases just seem to be pretty poor players overall. Tom Goodwin anyone? Gary Pettis? Willy T?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  19. #30
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sabermetric Question

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Yeah, I'd add Larkin to the effective list. Funny the guys who are the most valuable base stealers are guys who do other things that are even more valuable. Guys whose entire game is stealing bases just seem to be pretty poor players overall. Tom Goodwin anyone? Gary Pettis? Willy T?
    Stop....you're going to get Dusty all excited.

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    Ravenlord (08-25-2013)


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