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Thread: Matt Harvey - torn UCL in his elbow

  1. #31
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Matt Harvey - torn UCL in his elbow

    Verducci put Harvey in the list because he threw four more pitches in a season than his formula allows. That's why it's bunk.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  3. #32
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Matt Harvey - torn UCL in his elbow

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    And as much as Baseball Prospectus criticizes Verducci, they have yet to implement their own scientifically sound way to rate the risk of injury to pitchers, other than to harshly condemn ever letting a pitcher exceed 130 pitches in a single outing.
    That's because there is no way to do so, and never will be, imo.

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    Brutus (08-26-2013), The Operator (08-27-2013)

  5. #33
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Matt Harvey - torn UCL in his elbow

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Verducci put Harvey in the list because he threw four more pitches in a season than his formula allows. That's why it's bunk.
    Well, it's four more innings in 2012, and Harvey's workload also increased by 45 innings from 2010 to 2011. Harvey was clearly 'at risk' under the Verducci rule of thumb.

    I understand the criticism of Verducci. His rule is arbitrary, and unscientific. Yet if I owned a MLB team, I'd aim to keep my top young prospects year to year inning increases at about 20 per year, at least until a more scientific method is developed to try to protect these pitchers, and the multi-million dollar investments made in them.

    Although some on here are very critical of Verducci, does anyone here really think it is a good idea to take a 23 year old pitcher who threw 120 inning in one season, and allow him to top 200 IP the next year? Of course not: we all recognize that there is at least a chance that at some point the fatigue a pitcher gets in his arm can lead to injury. The idea that you build up strength and endurance year to year is at least somewhat logical.
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  6. #34
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Matt Harvey - torn UCL in his elbow

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    That's because there is no way to do so, and never will be, imo.
    Precisely. There is no set way. Each person is completely different with a utterly different set of circumstances.

    There is no magic number to follow. Each case must be treated individually (which teams do) rather than holistically. Verducci's idea that young pitchers should be treated with caution is sound advice. Assigning, or attempting to assign, some arbitrary number to every single pitcher in baseball is an absurd exercise in futility.

    No one is criticizing Verducci for the idea. They're criticizing the random, worthless cutoff that he imposes for potential injury. There is none and will never be. Each pitcher comes from a different background with different medical history and is pitching in a different environment.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  7. #35
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Matt Harvey - torn UCL in his elbow

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    In the FWIW category, I looked Harvey's number of innings up to see if he had a "Verducci effect' issue:

    2010 North Carolina as a Junior: 90 IP.
    2011 Minors: 135 innings pitched
    2012 Minors 110 IP, MLB 59 IP, total of 169 IP.
    2013 MLB 178.1 IP

    Although this year's usage was only a little above last years to date, he was arguably over-used last year. This is why Tom Verducci named his as one of the top pitchers at risk for problems before this year started. (See HERE).
    He looks to have been handled just fine.

    How does this effect the Reds? Do you try to get Stephenson to pitch with 95% effort rather than 100%? He fits the mold of one of these young fireballers who gets derailed a season or two into their big league career.

  8. #36
    Moderator The Operator's Avatar
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    Re: Matt Harvey - torn UCL in his elbow

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    I pitched through my high school years. Not at the MLB level obviously, but still there was rarely a day I didn't have some kind of aches or pain in my pitching arm. I don't know how these guys who regularly throw 95+ mph can ever be completely healthy arm-wise.
    I'm right there with you. I pitched up thru high school and during baseball season there was never a day where my arm didn't hurt. Even now, 8 years after high school - if I play catch with someone my arm is sore for at least a day.

    Granted, I threw hard (or fairly hard for high school, got clocked as high as 90 once, although I lived around 85), and my mechanics were pretty bad (probably why I walked so many guys); but the act of throwing a baseball overhand is just sooooooo violent to an arm.

    And while we're on the topic of high school, there is some definite pitcher abuse that goes on at that level. I asked my dad to count my pitches one game - ended being a 7-inning CG. I asked him how many pitches I threw and he said "I stopped counting at 150 during the 5th inning." That was my sophomore (!) season.

    It happens at every high school, too. Coaches pick about 2 or 3 guys and ride them like Seattle Slew.

    Didn't Devin Mesoraco have to have TJ surgery in high school?
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  9. #37
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Matt Harvey - torn UCL in his elbow

    See you in 2015, Matt.

  10. #38
    Public Enemy #1 Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Matt Harvey - torn UCL in his elbow

    Took the doofus long enough.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."


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