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Thread: Dusty on pitch counts

  1. #1
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Dusty on pitch counts

    It may be lost in the mayhem of players arguing with reporters but I saw this tidbit from Dusty in the St. Louis paper and thought it interesting. I am glad to see he was thinking ahead to Homer's next start last night.

    http://www.stltoday.com/sports/colum...b52777dc5.html
    Baker wasn't shy about mentioning this angle after the game. The Reds manager helpfully explained that he'd limited his Wednesday starter, Homer Bailey, to a lower pitch count in his most recent start because he wanted his righthander to be fresh against the Cardinals.

    As for the Reds' advance assessment of Waino...

    “We knew we had a chance," Baker told reporters after the win. "Wainwright had gone 128 pitches the time before, that’s quite a strain on him. That’s why I took Homer out at that point, about 115 pitches. He’s pitching next week against the Cardinals. I didn’t want to be in same situation.”

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    Member OesterPoster's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty on pitch counts

    I thought that was nice, but I don't necessarily agree with him. With an off-day today, it didn't make much sense to send Homer back out for the 8th last night when he had a 9 run lead.

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    Re: Dusty on pitch counts

    I don't see the difference between 128 and 115 as so great that 128 would be "too long, ruined him for the next outing", while 115 would be "good decision, get him out for some rest." It's 13 dang pitches.

    So, I didn't understand the point of Dusty's comment in the first place.

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    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty on pitch counts

    I liked the sentiment Baker expressed. I may disagree with how it was executed as I agree that using Bailey in the 8th was as unnecessary (if not more so) than using him in the 9th vs Miami back in May. At least it was something Baker was cognizant of and didn't keep him there longer.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/bo...01305140.shtml

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    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty on pitch counts

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    I liked the sentiment Baker expressed. I may disagree with how it was executed as I agree that using Bailey in the 8th was as unnecessary (if not more so) than using him in the 9th vs Miami back in May. [/url]
    Totally agree. Especially considering his next start is also against St. Louis.

    Matheny and Wainwright can say his previous start (128 pitches?) didn't affect him last night, but I think it may have.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

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    Re: Dusty on pitch counts

    115-120 pitches for Bailey is about what he does when he's pitching deep into games.

    I think Baker wanted to keep Bailey in his normal range.

    It also largely depends on whether the pitches were stressful or not. Bailey had zero sressful pitches last night. His 117 pitches were likely a walk in the park for him.

    Wainwright last time out, IIRC, threw 128 pitches and everyone was done at a time when the game was close. 128 stressful pitches with the game continually on the line is far greater than 117 non-stressful pitches.

    Not all pitches are created equal.

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    Re: Dusty on pitch counts

    One thing I think Dusty was doing was giving Homer a chance at finishing the complete game shut-out. Had Homer come out and had an easy first batter in the 8th, Dusty probably would have let him go another hitter.

    What should not be lost in this is that Homer came up huge in a huge game against one team the Reds have to beat. To me, that is the definition of a staff ace.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

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    Re: Dusty on pitch counts

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    One thing I think Dusty was doing was giving Homer a chance at finishing the complete game shut-out. Had Homer come out and had an easy first batter in the 8th, Dusty probably would have let him go another hitter.

    What should not be lost in this is that Homer came up huge in a huge game against one team the Reds have to beat. To me, that is the definition of a staff ace.
    It was a good performance by Homer. That said, when you toe the rubber for the first time in a game up 6-0 the dynamics of pressure have changed slightly, IMO.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

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    Re: Dusty on pitch counts

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    It was a good performance by Homer. That said, when you toe the rubber for the first time in a game up 6-0 the dynamics of pressure have changed slightly, IMO.
    True, but the Reds seem to have a knack for losing games to the Cards where they were up 6-0.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

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    Re: Dusty on pitch counts

    Quote Originally Posted by redssince75 View Post
    I don't see the difference between 128 and 115 as so great that 128 would be "too long, ruined him for the next outing", while 115 would be "good decision, get him out for some rest." It's 13 dang pitches.

    So, I didn't understand the point of Dusty's comment in the first place.
    That represents over a 12% difference in number of pitches, a not insignificant amount for a major league pitcher.
    Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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    Re: Dusty on pitch counts

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    Matheny and Wainwright can say his previous start (128 pitches?) didn't affect him last night, but I think it may have.
    Yeah they are certainly toeing that line......

    Wainwrights ego will never allow him to admit it if it did affect him negatively. As it's his ego that keeps him in the game longer. It's already been shown a few times this year that Waino has pushed back against Matheny when trying to pull him or after pulling him.

    I think this is an area that Matheny still needs maturing... He wears the daddy pants, he can tell wainwright to sit down for the betterment of the ball club.

    He has a big expensive contract with the Cards.... unless they want him to turn into another Chris Carpenter they should really keep that guy in check. Don't want to keep putting him in situations where he can possibly overthrow his arm, and 4 days rest isn't long enough so he keeps doing cumulative damage.

    Waino is not a bad guy, but his ego bothers me.


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