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Thread: Who plays CF in 2014?

  1. #16
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    All right. Let's bring back Stubbs.
    I deserved that. (and knew it was coming)

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  3. #17
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    My first choice is for the Reds to find a way to sign Choo. Choo would slide to LF in 2015 when Ludwick leaves and BHam or Ervin are ready.


    Barring that, DeJesus is an option, but really I would expect this Reds administration to hand BHam the keys.
    Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

  4. #18
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Yeah, I think the Reds brass knew it was unlikely to keep Choo after a year and expected Hamilton to be the replacement in 2014. The fact he hasn't developed into a MLB-ready player has left them in a quandry. They're not going to spend to get one, there's none ready in the pipeline, so it'll be BHam by default. If they go the stop-gap route they're in trouble.....if they want to remain playoff contenders.

  5. #19
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Old NDN View Post
    Yeah, I think the Reds brass knew it was unlikely to keep Choo after a year and expected Hamilton to be the replacement in 2014. The fact he hasn't developed into a MLB-ready player has left them in a quandry. They're not going to spend to get one, there's none ready in the pipeline, so it'll be BHam by default. If they go the stop-gap route they're in trouble.....if they want to remain playoff contenders.
    I still think Rasmus would be a good stopgap. Plus if you have to trade a good prospect for him and need to get more value out of him, he could be further resigned to be the LF after Billy is up for good.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
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    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  6. #20
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    If BHam isn't deemed ready I expect them to go stop gap with a guy on a one year deal similar to Choo but much cheaper and much less satisfactory to RZ. A platoon guy with Heisey maybe and hoping BHam is ready by midway at least.

  7. #21
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    I think the Reds need to consider CF a spot that they not only need a stopgap for a year, but maybe two or three until Ervin is ready. Hamilton may step-up, but his brand of weak offense supplemented by speed is usually a longer shot to pan out than a player who is based upon better hitting skills (getting on base and having extra base power). The "get somebody for a couple years and slide him to LF if Hamilton works out" strategy makes sense. If Hamilton doesn't work out, others (Y-Rod, Lutz, maybe one of the high A guys) might be ready to assume the role in LF in 2015 while the stopgap continues to man Center. They can always keep Ludwick for 2015 if he's still hitting. Invoking his option isn't really that pricey when you consider it saves the cost of the buy-out.

    Just don't know if they have the money to get a guy like that.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  9. #22
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    If BHam isn't deemed ready I expect them to go stop gap with a guy on a one year deal similar to Choo but much cheaper and much less satisfactory to RZ. A platoon guy with Heisey maybe and hoping BHam is ready by midway at least.
    I could see that as well. Dejesus or Will Venable might make sense as a platoon partner with Heisey.

    From the Right side, a guy like Chris Young might bring back visions of Stubbs. He'd cover defensively, provide some power and hit against LHP. GABP may bring him back to a mid-.700s OPS instead of the guy he's been in Oakland's cavern. He's not terrible if he's not real expensive, but at $7 or $8 Million per season like the last couple years, has been a bad deal. He's not bad against LHP, I just wouldn't go much over $3 Million for a season of him.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #23
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I could see that as well. Dejesus or Will Venable might make sense as a platoon partner with Heisey.

    From the Right side, a guy like Chris Young might bring back visions of Stubbs. He'd cover defensively, provide some power and hit against LHP. GABP may bring him back to a mid-.700s OPS instead of the guy he's been in Oakland's cavern. He's not terrible if he's not real expensive, but at $7 or $8 Million per season like the last couple years, has been a bad deal. He's not bad against LHP, I just wouldn't go much over $3 Million for a season of him.
    That much more the scenario I expect if the Reds think they need a plan to ensure they are covered if BH isn't ready opening day.

  11. #24
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    I see them letting Choo walk but offering him a contract at a huge discount...I truly dont think they want him back. we have a few OF's in the minors who are really only 1-3 years away and Choo is going to demand a 5 year deal IMO.....Jay Bruce is here for the long haul so that leaves 2 OF spots to fill and we have Hamilton and Ervin that are knocking on the door....Choo would look great in our OF for one more year but that is not happening, he will get a 5 year deal....

    The only other option I can see if they sign Choo is to deal Jay Bruce after next year....not so sure that will happen but we have all seen wilder things happen in baseball. I really like what I see from Ervin....Winker is 3 years away and he is young and looks like he is figuring it out....Keeping Choo means Bruce goes in my opinion. As mad as Jay makes me sometimes, I like his production and I like the way he is learning to hit backside and stay off the curveball in the dirt.....Jay would be a hard pill for me to swallow if they dealt him in order to keep choo.....I would not hate it, but it would be tough......Jay brings alot to the table.

  12. #25
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think the Reds need to consider CF a spot that they not only need a stopgap for a year, but maybe two or three until Ervin is ready. Hamilton may step-up, but his brand of weak offense supplemented by speed is usually a longer shot to pan out than a player who is based upon better hitting skills (getting on base and having extra base power). The "get somebody for a couple years and slide him to LF if Hamilton works out" strategy makes sense. If Hamilton doesn't work out, others (Y-Rod, Lutz, maybe one of the high A guys) might be ready to assume the role in LF in 2015 while the stopgap continues to man Center. They can always keep Ludwick for 2015 if he's still hitting. Invoking his option isn't really that pricey when you consider it saves the cost of the buy-out.

    Just don't know if they have the money to get a guy like that.
    Hamilton right now would be at least a league average CF defensively in the bigs, probably above average. Add in his value on the basepaths, and he doesn't have to do much offensively to be a league average CF overall. Last year, Stubbs, with a .610 OPS was still a 1 win player.

    This is why speed is actually more valuable than power. It helps you produce in other areas.

    Every MLB hitter needs to get on base at a solid rate to be a starter. If you can't, but you have power, all you add are a few homers every now and then. But if you can't get on base well enough to start, you at least provide value on defense and on the basepaths.

    Guys with nothing but power go to Japan. Guys with nothing but speed become valuable role players.

    I will add that power hitters who can get in base are usually more valuable than guys with speed who get on base.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

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  14. #26
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Hamilton right now would be at least a league average CF defensively in the bigs, probably above average. Add in his value on the basepaths, and he doesn't have to do much offensively to be a league average CF overall. Last year, Stubbs, with a .610 OPS was still a 1 win player.

    This is why speed is actually more valuable than power. It helps you produce in other areas.

    Every MLB hitter needs to get on base at a solid rate to be a starter. If you can't, but you have power, all you add are a few homers every now and then. But if you can't get on base well enough to start, you at least provide value on defense and on the basepaths.

    Guys with nothing but power go to Japan. Guys with nothing but speed become valuable role players.

    I will add that power hitters who can get in base are usually more valuable than guys with speed who get on base.
    A 1 win player is a back-up player or potential minor leaguer (though I really don't care what the score of some screwed-up formula says) and Drew Stubbs hit 14 HR to help him to that .610 OPS. What will Hamilton do without any power at all? How does Hamilton's .308 AAA OBP project to be any kind of improvement over what Stubbs did? Seems like he'll be Stubbs without the occasional HR. Curtis Goodwin or Willy Taveras seem like likely comps at this point. Get excited all you want. To have any value at all, he needs to not only figure out how to keep the opposition from getting him out, but then on the rare occasion he does get on, he gives them another shot at him by trying to steal. Valuable base stealers in the history of the game are valuable because the get on base and have some pop. Those are still the primary skills.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #27
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by armybrat45103 View Post
    Hamilton will open in 2014. If he falters, we may see Ervin faster than we though.
    Everything I have heard says that BHam will not open up with the Reds. I personally don't think he is an everyday answer tho.

  16. #28
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Since Stubbs was brought up earlier in the thread, he's got a .678 OPS this year with Cleveland. I checked the Indians board and they think that's just fine for the #9 slot.I really expect him to do .670-.700 for the near future.

    Although-he will be entering his arbitration years soon. That had to be a calculation the Reds made when they made the trade. That-and his terrible year in 2012.

  17. #29
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Hamilton right now would be at least a league average CF defensively in the bigs, probably above average. Add in his value on the basepaths, and he doesn't have to do much offensively to be a league average CF overall. Last year, Stubbs, with a .610 OPS was still a 1 win player.

    This is why speed is actually more valuable than power. It helps you produce in other areas.

    Every MLB hitter needs to get on base at a solid rate to be a starter. If you can't, but you have power, all you add are a few homers every now and then. But if you can't get on base well enough to start, you at least provide value on defense and on the basepaths.

    Guys with nothing but power go to Japan. Guys with nothing but speed become valuable role players.

    I will add that power hitters who can get in base are usually more valuable than guys with speed who get on base.
    Power isn't just about hitting home runs. If outfielders know you can't hit it over their heads, they're going to play way in, taking away even more of the field. Thus line drives that might have fallen in had the outfielder been playing normal depth become outs. BHam is going to have to show something in terms of power or he's going to have a very short major league career.
    Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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  19. #30
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Power isn't just about hitting home runs. If outfielders know you can't hit it over their heads, they're going to play way in, taking away even more of the field. Thus line drives that might have fallen in had the outfielder been playing normal depth become outs. BHam is going to have to show something in terms of power or he's going to have a very short major league career.
    Good point. But Hamilton already and that power, especially from for right side. If you've ever seen him, he's not a slap hitter, he drives the ball. That actually is part of his problem. He's hitting too many fly balls, not enough ground balls. He has six HR's this year, btw.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
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