Turn Off Ads?
Page 4 of 7 FirstFirst 1234567 LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 102

Thread: Who plays CF in 2014?

  1. #46
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    532

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Jon Jay.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #47
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,793

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990 View Post
    I would sign up for Billy being Otis Nixon right now. I don't think his bat will ever be much at the big league level. But his wheels will win games for us.
    Otis Nixon was a part time player until he was age 31. His high water mark was an OPS+ of 94 in 460 PAs at age 32. He had a long career as a spare part and that's OK and maybe Billy can do that, but this is a thread about who should be the Reds CF in 2014 not who should be the 5th OF. Nixon's career OPS+ was 77. I'd honestly rather just play Heisey out there than have a typical Otis Nixon year manning CF (and I think Heisey is clearly a 300 PA part timer who is probably going to make more money than he's worth starting in 2014).
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  4. #48
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    10,342

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Otis Nixon was a part time player until he was age 31. His high water mark was an OPS+ of 94 in 460 PAs at age 32. He had a long career as a spare part and that's OK and maybe Billy can do that, but this is a thread about who should be the Reds CF in 2014 not who should be the 5th OF. Nixon's career OPS+ was 77. I'd honestly rather just play Heisey out there than have a typical Otis Nixon year manning CF (and I think Heisey is clearly a 300 PA part timer who is probably going to make more money than he's worth starting in 2014).
    Again, you are fixated on OPS+ and not overall value.

    Otis Nixon was an league average CF from 1989-1993, and had a streak of nine straight seasons of an OBP over .330, 7 of which were .348 or higher. That's the value of speed. You can still be very valuable even if you don't put up a godd OPS.

    I would be very happy if Hamilton put together a career like that as a Red. The Reds would win many division titles if he did.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. Likes:

    REDREAD (09-04-2013)

  6. #49
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,793

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Again, you are fixated on OPS+ and not overall value.

    Otis Nixon was an league average CF from 1989-1993, and had a streak of nine straight seasons of an OBP over .330, 7 of which were .348 or higher. That's the value of speed. You can still be very valuable even if you don't put up a godd OPS.

    I would be very happy if Hamilton put together a career like that as a Red. The Reds would win many division titles if he did.
    Nixon was 30 years old and with his 3rd team by the time 1989 rolled around and still only had 293 PAs that season (have to wonder about Nixon's late career rise from fringe AAAA guy to regular table setter in his seasons that normally are declining years). If this was a thread about becoming a decent 5th OF in 2020, I might agree. Nixon didn't put up his first decent season with somewhat regular PT until 1991 at the age of 32 when he had a OPS+ of 94 with an OBP of .371 in 460 PAs. You may argue that he was a useful bench player before that, he only had one year with more than 300 PAs (305 in 1988 as a 29 YO). That might prove to be a useful role player, but the question is whether this player can be the starting CF in 2014 (at age 23).

    The answer, if Nixon is the comp, is clearly no and I think Billy would come close to reaching his max if he could become the 30 something Otis Nixon (his absolute max is still probably Willie Wilson IMO and that would be great if he could become that). Curtis Goodwin is the name that keeps coming to mind as a more likely outcome. Most players don't reach their max. Maybe Hamilton will be better than that (hope so), but probably not in 2014. His .308 AAA OBP says he probably needs another year in AAA. If he's ready sooner, great, but if the Reds plan on him as the starting CF in 2014 that is akin to punting the 2014 season IMO.

    BTW, Nixon had a .403 OBP as a minor leaguer. That is about 50 points higher than Hamilton's career OBP in the minors and Nixon's first AAA season was more than 100 OBP points higher than Billy's .308 this year. It still took Nixon 6 seasons or so before that translated to a decent OBP/starting role in the big leagues.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-02-2013 at 06:10 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  7. Likes:

    remdog (09-02-2013)

  8. #50
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    26,509

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by SporkLover View Post
    Jon Jay.
    cob Jingleheimer Schmidt...

  9. Likes:

    757690 (09-02-2013), Tom Servo (09-02-2013)

  10. #51
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    10,342

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Nixon was 30 years old and with his 3rd team by the time 1989 rolled around and still only had 293 PAs that season (have to wonder about Nixon's late career rise from fringe AAAA guy to regular table setter in his seasons that normally are declining years). If this was a thread about becoming a decent 5th OF in 2020, I might agree. Nixon didn't put up his first decent season with somewhat regular PT until 1991 at the age of 32 when he had a OPS+ of 94 with an OBP of .371 in 460 PAs. You may argue that he was a useful bench player before that, he only had one year with more than 300 PAs (305 in 1988 as a 29 YO). That might prove to be a useful role player, but the question is whether this player can be the starting CF in 2014 (at age 23).

    The answer, if Nixon is the comp, is clearly no and I think Billy would come close to reaching his max if he could become the 30 something Otis Nixon (his absolute max is still probably Willie Wilson IMO and that would be great if he could become that). Curtis Goodwin is the name that keeps coming to mind as a more likely outcome. Most players don't reach their max. Maybe Hamilton will be better than that (hope so), but probably not in 2014. His .308 AAA OBP says he probably needs another year in AAA. If he's ready sooner, great, but if the Reds plan on him as the starting CF in 2014 that is akin to punting the 2014 season IMO.

    BTW, Nixon had a .403 OBP as a minor leaguer. That is about 50 points higher than Hamilton's career OBP in the minors and Nixon's first AAA season was more than 100 OBP points higher than Billy's .308 this year. It still took Nixon 6 seasons or so before that translated to a decent OBP/starting role in the big leagues.
    1. You can't hold the fact that Nixon couldn't beat out Brett Butler for CF against him. Nixon was putting up decent numbers as a fourth outfielder, he just wasn't as good as Butler at that time. It's like holding it against Mesoraco that he hasn't won the full time catching job yet. The point is that he had the talent to be a productive MLB player, with speed and no power. It doesn't matter when teams noticed that.

    2. Curtis Goodwin was never good. Never in the minors, never in the majors. There is nothing that Goodwin did that Hamilton isn't already better at.

    But regardless, the point is that there are a plethora of players who have been successful major leaguers with speed as their main weapons and very little power. There have been more with that skillset who didn't amount to much, but that's true of every player with specific skillsets, even the so called "five tool players."

    You're right that the key is that Hamilton needs to be able to get on base. But that's the key to every prospect position player. If Hamilton can't get on base at a decent rate, he will never be a solid MLB starter. Duh! Take away Miguel Cabrera's ability to get on base, and he's probably not even making a major league roster. Pointing out that Hamilton needs to have a decent OBP to succeed is like pointing out that ice cream needs to be cold. It's true, but a waste of time.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #52
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    155

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    I think that Billy Hamilton will start Opening Day in CF in 2014 and that's how it should be. A lot of posters are down on Billy's OBP in AAA this year and his yearly stats of .256/.306/.651 don't scream confidence I know. However, before this year he never had a full season with lower than a .340 OBP or .278 BA. The fact that he hit 30 points higher over the second half of year shows improvement and adjusting to the better competition.

    There's a lot of player comparisons to Hamilton that I don't think are fair at this point. He's got world class speed, has shown the ability to adjust seamlessly from SS to CF, has several years of showing adaptability and being receptive to instruction. Those are traits not of journeymen like Taveras, Patterson, Stubbs, etc. These are elements of a future successful big leaguer. FWIW, I think he'll be a hybrid of Vince Coleman & Michael Bourn; a player I'm fully happy to roll with next year.

  12. Likes:

    Old school 1983 (09-02-2013)

  13. #53
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    1,756

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    I think a lot of hamiltons value will not only be in his numbers, but what he does for the numbers of other players. This season I've seen votto pitched around with balls outside or in the dirt it's crazy. If Hamilton is on first base and this happens he could easily end up on second or third with obviously the best hitter in the league at the plate. Plus votto and any other reds hitter will probably see more fastballs with billy in base just because if his speed alone. This could lead to way more hits and offense.

    I don't expect Hamilton to come up and instantly be a world beater, but give the dude a shot in center. It seems like a lot of people are writing him off before we even see him in the bigs. Good center fielders are expensive. Use the money to replace choos offensive production at another spot (it'd be cheaper than in center) and give billy a chance to showcase his speed. If he doesn't workout get one of the marginal names that get mentioned here all the time at the 2014 deadline.

  14. #54
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    814

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    I think a lot of hamiltons value will not only be in his numbers, but what he does for the numbers of other players. This season I've seen votto pitched around with balls outside or in the dirt it's crazy. If Hamilton is on first base and this happens he could easily end up on second or third with obviously the best hitter in the league at the plate. Plus votto and any other reds hitter will probably see more fastballs with billy in base just because if his speed alone. This could lead to way more hits and offense.

    I don't expect Hamilton to come up and instantly be a world beater, but give the dude a shot in center. It seems like a lot of people are writing him off before we even see him in the bigs. Good center fielders are expensive. Use the money to replace choos offensive production at another spot (it'd be cheaper than in center) and give billy a chance to showcase his speed. If he doesn't workout get one of the marginal names that get mentioned here all the time at the 2014 deadline.
    The speed which baseball fans usually think of as an important skill for a leadoff hitter is actually not that important.
    http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/0...-so-fast/?_r=0

    Generally regarded as the greatest leadoff hitter ever, Rickey Henderson thrilled baseball fans for a quarter century by stealing a major league-record 1,406 bases. Along the way, his feats on the base paths fueled the stereotype that speed is the leadoff man’s defining tool. But it wasn’t his base stealing that made him so effective in the leadoff spot; rather, it was his ability to get on base to begin with.
    “The Book” lays out the most efficient strategy for the top of the lineup: a team’s three best hitters should bat in the Nos. 1, 2 and 4 spots, with the No. 1 hitter emphasizing walks and on-base percentage and the No. 4 hitter emphasizing slugging percentage. If anything, base stealing should be one of the least relevant skills for the leadoff hitter because the hitters behind him are generally the best on the team — meaning they do not need to rely on small-ball tactics to move runners into scoring position.

  15. #55
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,570

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    The speed which baseball fans usually think of as an important skill for a leadoff hitter is actually not that important.
    http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/0...-so-fast/?_r=0
    A lot of these kinds of analyses assume perfection throughout the lineup.

    Here, the statement is that speed in a lead off hitter isn't that important because the hitters coming up behind him are the most proficient on the team.

    We've seen, however, that this kind of text book analysis doesn't necessarily translate. Every team doesn't have great middle of the order hitters. And even very good ones can leave a bunch of runners on base.

    On the Reds this year we've seen a plethora of men left on base in key situations. and so many baserunning errors. Sometimes, that extra speed, that stolen base, that successful extra base, would make a difference.

    The Reds need better team speed, not only Hamilton. But he would be a big first step. The key with Hamilton will be teaching him to use his speed by hitting grounders, slapping the ball, drawing walks, making contact. He will not have to be a great hitter if he can master these skills.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-02-2013 at 10:26 AM.

  16. Likes:

    Old school 1983 (09-02-2013)

  17. #56
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    814

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    A lot of these kinds of analyses assume perfection throughout the lineup.

    Here, the statement is that speed in a lead off hitter isn't that important because the hitters coming up behind him are the most proficient on the team.

    We've seen, however, that this kind of text book analysis doesn't necessarily translate. Every team doesn't have great middle of the order hitters. And even very good ones can leave a bunch of runners on base.

    On the Reds this year we've seen a plethora of men left on base in key situations. and so many baserunning errors. Sometimes, that extra speed, that stolen base, that successful extra base, would make a difference.

    The Reds need better team speed, not only Hamilton. But he would be a big first step. The key with Hamilton will be teaching him to use his speed by hitting grounders, slapping the ball, drawing walks, making contact. He will not have to be a great hitter if he can master these skills.
    Cardinals: #1 in RUN, #15(The last) in SB
    Reds: #3 in RUN, #14 in SB
    Braves: #4 in RUN, #12 in SB
    Dbacks: #5 in RUN, #13 in SB

  18. #57
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    1,756

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Speed also translate into more ground covered in the outfield. Choo has improved in center as the year has gone in but he really is a corner outfielder playing center. Hamilton has prototypical CF speed and beyond. I don't expect billy to be choo. That's unrealistic, but I expect his skillet to help the reds. Sure I'd love to see a huge OBP out of him, but people act like speed is a useless tool. It pays dividends defensively in saving runs and on the bath paths when he does get on. To want to replace choos production straight up with another center fielder in my eyes us short sided as well and not looking at the bigger picture. Baseball is a team game. The goal should be to increase the teams overall productivity at the right cost especially in a mid market like the Cincinnati. Centerfields, good ones anyway, are costly in the open market. Lets take CF LF 3b and SS on the reds this year. Choo/the platoon in left/Frazier/cozart. Honestly the only player out of that bunch that has been consistently productive is choo, and while he has decent on base skills vs lefties he hits, as in bat to ball, poorly against them. If the reds can find a way to replace choos production at third short or in left field, they should do so and go with Hamilton in center. Hamilton/ludwick/an upgrade at third/and cozart, in my mind anyway, be an improvement in production over this year.

  19. Likes:

    REDREAD (09-04-2013)

  20. #58
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,570

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Cardinals: #1 in RUN, #15(The last) in SB
    Reds: #3 in RUN, #14 in SB
    Braves: #4 in RUN, #12 in SB
    Dbacks: #5 in RUN, #13 in SB
    Left out the Rockies, second in runs with a lot of steals.

    This tells us nothing about whether team speed and SBs help an offense. All it tells us is that you can score a lot of runs without steals, which is obvious. Yes, you can have a good offense without steals.

    Ask the Cards, Reds, Braves and DBacks if they wish they had more team speed and SB ability.

  21. #59
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    10,342

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Left out the Rockies, second in runs with a lot of steals.

    This tells us nothing about whether team speed and SBs help an offense. All it tells us is that you can score a lot of runs without steals, which is obvious. Yes, you can have a good offense without steals.

    Ask the Cards, Reds, Braves and DBacks if they wish they had more team speed and SB ability.
    More importantly, lets look at the Reds likely lineup with Hamilton.

    Hamilton
    Phillips
    Votto
    Ludwick
    Bruce
    Etc.

    When Hamilton gets on base, I think it's clear that having him on second instead of first, will result in significantly more runs. Phillips and Votto aren't power guys, and Votto is the only one of the first five with above average on base skills.

    The theory that Junkhead quotes, was originally written during the steroid era, when teams had plenty of big bats to plug up and down the lineup. Not so much these days for most teams, including the Reds.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  22. Likes:

    REDREAD (09-04-2013)

  23. #60
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    3,939

    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Curtis Goodwin?

    Do you guys mean Tom Goodwin?


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25