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Thread: Who plays CF in 2014?

  1. #61
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    junkhead - your analysis simply does not hold up under scrutiny. Drew Stubbs last season is a perfect example. As frustrating as he was he scored a ton of runs with a low obp because his speed and running skill made him a high percentage scorer when he did get on base. Speedy runners routinely score more as often as hitters with higher obp averages - there is a break even point there somewhere but I don't know what it is or even if it has been studied but I believe it exists. I'm not saying speed is more important than OBP or that I'd swap high OBP for speed but I do believe a lower OBP than normally would be considered acceptable would work with Billy in his first couple season as he learns and adjusts at the plate. His speed is such that he can compensate with higher than normal scoring percentages when he does get on. Dismissing speed for a leadoff hitter is misleading, especially in a new era where pitching is the dominating aspect. Your claim was likely true in the hitting dominated era of the 90s and aughts. The game changes, though, as tides roll in and out.

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  4. #62
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Speed is nice, but it is and always has been a complimentary part of offense, not one you can build your offense around like hitting, power or the ability to draw a walk.

    That isn't to say Hamilton can't or won't have success. I am of the mind that the pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction after the 2013 season in terms of his prospect value.

    But speed is still a secondary skill to being able to hit (for average or power) and the ability to get on via the walk.

  5. #63
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    junkhead - your analysis simply does not hold up under scrutiny. Drew Stubbs last season is a perfect example. As frustrating as he was he scored a ton of runs with a low obp because his speed and running skill made him a high percentage scorer when he did get on base. Speedy runners routinely score more as often as hitters with higher obp averages - there is a break even point there somewhere but I don't know what it is or even if it has been studied but I believe it exists. I'm not saying speed is more important than OBP or that I'd swap high OBP for speed but I do believe a lower OBP than normally would be considered acceptable would work with Billy in his first couple season as he learns and adjusts at the plate. His speed is such that he can compensate with higher than normal scoring percentages when he does get on. Dismissing speed for a leadoff hitter is misleading, especially in a new era where pitching is the dominating aspect. Your claim was likely true in the hitting dominated era of the 90s and aughts. The game changes, though, as tides roll in and out.
    Firstly, I don't consider 75 runs as a ton of runs.
    Secondly, Stubbs scored 75 runs mainly because of Votto's superior hitting with Men On and RISP rather than his speed and running skill.

    Code:
                                                         
    Split     PA  AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
    RISP     109  73 27  9  0  7  41 .370 .560 .781 1.340
    Men On   210 156 55 23  0  9  51 .353 .510 .673 1.183

  6. #64
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Firstly, I don't consider 75 runs as a ton of runs.
    Secondly, Stubbs scored 75 runs mainly because of Votto's superior hitting with Men On and RISP rather than his speed and running skill.

    Code:
                                                         
    Split     PA  AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
    RISP     109  73 27  9  0  7  41 .370 .560 .781 1.340
    Men On   210 156 55 23  0  9  51 .353 .510 .673 1.183
    Do you also consider 90 runs a ton of runs? Stubbs scored 90 runs from 2010-11 with a subpar OBP around .320, and he dropped to 75 only because his OBP dropped from around .320. Speed can be a factor.

    Also, if anyone can score runs in front of Votto, why isn't Cozart on pace for 90 runs?

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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Adam Jones: .324 OBP, 90 Runs
    Shin-Soo Choo: .415 OBP, 91 Runs
    Joey Votto: .431 OBP, 88 Runs

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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Don't get me wrong - If BH OBP's .285 he'll be a failure. But at about .315-.320 he becomes a viable weapon. Every point above that he becomes more dangerous and effective. I think that it is completely reasonable to expect that level of production at minimum. That level, long term, would not be acceptable for a leadoff man, but I'd accept it in the beginning, given his speed (although Choo in left leading off and BH in CF hitting 8th would be the ideal - but ain't gonna happen). I agree with Doug that speed is secondary to OBP - to getting hits and walks - but premier speed is a very high level secondary weapon. And when I say speed can offset OBP to some degree I mean it only to a minor degree and only for those players who possess really elite speed. In other words - it only works for a handful of players.

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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Do you also consider 90 runs a ton of runs? Stubbs scored 90 runs from 2010-11 with a subpar OBP around .320, and he dropped to 75 only because his OBP dropped from around .320. Speed can be a factor.

    Also, if anyone can score runs in front of Votto, why isn't Cozart on pace for 90 runs?
    Votto is hitting .284 with Men On and .304 with RISP this season.

  12. #68
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Adam Jones: .324 OBP, 90 Runs
    Shin-Soo Choo: .415 OBP, 91 Runs
    Joey Votto: .431 OBP, 88 Runs
    This doesn't tell me much. Far too much data is missing.

  13. #69
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    This doesn't tell me much. Far too much data is missing.
    Chris Davis is hitting behind Adam Jones.
    Cozart, Frazier, Robinson and Heisey hitting behind Choo.

  14. #70
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    1. You can't hold the fact that Nixon couldn't beat out Brett Butler for CF against him. Nixon was putting up decent numbers as a fourth outfielder, he just wasn't as good as Butler at that time. It's like holding it against Mesoraco that he hasn't won the full time catching job yet. The point is that he had the talent to be a productive MLB player, with speed and no power. It doesn't matter when teams noticed that.

    2. Curtis Goodwin was never good. Never in the minors, never in the majors. There is nothing that Goodwin did that Hamilton isn't already better at.

    But regardless, the point is that there are a plethora of players who have been successful major leaguers with speed as their main weapons and very little power. There have been more with that skillset who didn't amount to much, but that's true of every player with specific skillsets, even the so called "five tool players."

    You're right that the key is that Hamilton needs to be able to get on base. But that's the key to every prospect position player. If Hamilton can't get on base at a decent rate, he will never be a solid MLB starter. Duh! Take away Miguel Cabrera's ability to get on base, and he's probably not even making a major league roster. Pointing out that Hamilton needs to have a decent OBP to succeed is like pointing out that ice cream needs to be cold. It's true, but a waste of time.
    Got it. Getting on base is so important that we don't even need to discuss it.
    It's so obvious that you want to hand the major league CF job to a guy who couldn't even do it at AAA and won't consider that the Reds should get somebody else and wait until the AAA failure proves himself at that level before handing him the big league job. Because it doesn't matter that he couldn't get on base at AAA, he'll be successful anyway.

    Are you sure you're not my wife? Her logic is exactly like this most of the time.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #71
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Curtis Goodwin?

    Do you guys mean Tom Goodwin?
    Does it make a difference? Neither one is a guy I'd want playing CF on my team.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  17. #72
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    I think Hamilton's poor season has too many hopers on here lowering their standards too much. If he has a .315 to .320 OBP (which is already a long shot since it would actually mean having a higher OBP in the big leagues than in AAA), we'll be hoping for a replacement ASAP. SS (and Pitcher) is the only position on the diamond where I'd be satisfied with that. The Reds need to get an acceptable stopgap and wait for Hamilton to take the job away. They shouldn't hand him the job and be left short if he crashes and burns (which is likely given his AAA results IMO).

    Lets get him to.350 in AAA before considering him as the prime option in the big leagues.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  18. #73
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think Hamilton's poor season has too many hopers on here lowering their standards too much. If he has a .315 to .320 OBP (which is already a long shot since it would actually mean having a higher OBP in the big leagues than in AAA), we'll be hoping for a replacement ASAP. SS (and Pitcher) is the only position on the diamond where I'd be satisfied with that. The Reds need to get an acceptable stopgap and wait for Hamilton to take the job away. They shouldn't hand him the job and be left short if he crashes and burns (which is likely given his AAA results IMO).

    Lets get him to.350 in AAA before considering him as the prime option in the big leagues.
    Hamilton with a .320 OBP in the Majors would make him a 3 win player, without question. I certainly wouldn't want to see him leading off with a .320 OBP, and I know he will lead off regardless of his OBP, but I can't hold that against him as that is on the manager.

    Now, whether he can .320 OBP is another question, but in my mind if he can do that, what he will bring with base running and defense will make him rather valuable.

  19. #74
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Hamilton with a .320 OBP in the Majors would make him a 3 win player, without question. I certainly wouldn't want to see him leading off with a .320 OBP, and I know he will lead off regardless of his OBP, but I can't hold that against him as that is on the manager.

    Now, whether he can .320 OBP is another question, but in my mind if he can do that, what he will bring with base running and defense will make him rather valuable.
    If I'm not mistaken, BP had him as a potential .310 OBP this season, and had him as over a 2 win player, so that sounds about right.

  20. #75
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Obviously the Reds should have a veteran CFer to start next season, and then split time with Hamilton when he first comes up. Reds certainly need some insurance for next year.

    But any suggestion that the Reds invest in a longer term CFer IMO gives Hamilton too little credit. He did have an .830 OPS and .410 OBP last season at two levels. He's shown some offensive ability to go with his speed.

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