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Thread: Who plays CF in 2014?

  1. #61
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Adam Jones: .324 OBP, 90 Runs
    Shin-Soo Choo: .415 OBP, 91 Runs
    Joey Votto: .431 OBP, 88 Runs
    This doesn't tell me much. Far too much data is missing.

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  3. #62
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    1. You can't hold the fact that Nixon couldn't beat out Brett Butler for CF against him. Nixon was putting up decent numbers as a fourth outfielder, he just wasn't as good as Butler at that time. It's like holding it against Mesoraco that he hasn't won the full time catching job yet. The point is that he had the talent to be a productive MLB player, with speed and no power. It doesn't matter when teams noticed that.

    2. Curtis Goodwin was never good. Never in the minors, never in the majors. There is nothing that Goodwin did that Hamilton isn't already better at.

    But regardless, the point is that there are a plethora of players who have been successful major leaguers with speed as their main weapons and very little power. There have been more with that skillset who didn't amount to much, but that's true of every player with specific skillsets, even the so called "five tool players."

    You're right that the key is that Hamilton needs to be able to get on base. But that's the key to every prospect position player. If Hamilton can't get on base at a decent rate, he will never be a solid MLB starter. Duh! Take away Miguel Cabrera's ability to get on base, and he's probably not even making a major league roster. Pointing out that Hamilton needs to have a decent OBP to succeed is like pointing out that ice cream needs to be cold. It's true, but a waste of time.
    Got it. Getting on base is so important that we don't even need to discuss it.
    It's so obvious that you want to hand the major league CF job to a guy who couldn't even do it at AAA and won't consider that the Reds should get somebody else and wait until the AAA failure proves himself at that level before handing him the big league job. Because it doesn't matter that he couldn't get on base at AAA, he'll be successful anyway.

    Are you sure you're not my wife? Her logic is exactly like this most of the time.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  4. #63
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Curtis Goodwin?

    Do you guys mean Tom Goodwin?
    Does it make a difference? Neither one is a guy I'd want playing CF on my team.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Tom Servo (09-02-2013)

  6. #64
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    I think Hamilton's poor season has too many hopers on here lowering their standards too much. If he has a .315 to .320 OBP (which is already a long shot since it would actually mean having a higher OBP in the big leagues than in AAA), we'll be hoping for a replacement ASAP. SS (and Pitcher) is the only position on the diamond where I'd be satisfied with that. The Reds need to get an acceptable stopgap and wait for Hamilton to take the job away. They shouldn't hand him the job and be left short if he crashes and burns (which is likely given his AAA results IMO).

    Lets get him to.350 in AAA before considering him as the prime option in the big leagues.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  7. #65
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think Hamilton's poor season has too many hopers on here lowering their standards too much. If he has a .315 to .320 OBP (which is already a long shot since it would actually mean having a higher OBP in the big leagues than in AAA), we'll be hoping for a replacement ASAP. SS (and Pitcher) is the only position on the diamond where I'd be satisfied with that. The Reds need to get an acceptable stopgap and wait for Hamilton to take the job away. They shouldn't hand him the job and be left short if he crashes and burns (which is likely given his AAA results IMO).

    Lets get him to.350 in AAA before considering him as the prime option in the big leagues.
    Hamilton with a .320 OBP in the Majors would make him a 3 win player, without question. I certainly wouldn't want to see him leading off with a .320 OBP, and I know he will lead off regardless of his OBP, but I can't hold that against him as that is on the manager.

    Now, whether he can .320 OBP is another question, but in my mind if he can do that, what he will bring with base running and defense will make him rather valuable.

  8. #66
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Hamilton with a .320 OBP in the Majors would make him a 3 win player, without question. I certainly wouldn't want to see him leading off with a .320 OBP, and I know he will lead off regardless of his OBP, but I can't hold that against him as that is on the manager.

    Now, whether he can .320 OBP is another question, but in my mind if he can do that, what he will bring with base running and defense will make him rather valuable.
    If I'm not mistaken, BP had him as a potential .310 OBP this season, and had him as over a 2 win player, so that sounds about right.

  9. #67
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Obviously the Reds should have a veteran CFer to start next season, and then split time with Hamilton when he first comes up. Reds certainly need some insurance for next year.

    But any suggestion that the Reds invest in a longer term CFer IMO gives Hamilton too little credit. He did have an .830 OPS and .410 OBP last season at two levels. He's shown some offensive ability to go with his speed.

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    Old school 1983 (09-02-2013)

  11. #68
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Hamilton with a .320 OBP in the Majors would make him a 3 win player, without question. I certainly wouldn't want to see him leading off with a .320 OBP, and I know he will lead off regardless of his OBP, but I can't hold that against him as that is on the manager.

    Now, whether he can .320 OBP is another question, but in my mind if he can do that, what he will bring with base running and defense will make him rather valuable.
    How many of those three wins are from his base running? How many steals are you assuming and at what success rate (don't forget to include times picked-off going back to the base which don't count as CS or impact his success rate). A .320 OBP over 600 PAs would have him reaching base 192 times, so I guess it's possible he could steal 60+ bases with a .320 OBP. I'm just not sure how many extra runs that would mean hitting in front of guys who might be able to knock him in anyway. I do think his raw speed will help. A guy with an OBP that low can't reduce it even more by getting thrown out (or picked off) much. If he's an Eric Davis like 50 steals in 55 attempts, I'd agree that he can make up for some of his lack of hitting. If he's more in the 50 steals in 70 attempts range, I'm not excited at all.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-02-2013 at 02:09 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #69
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    How many of those three wins are from his base running? How many steals are you assuming and at what success rate (don't forget to include times picked-off going back to the base which don't count as CS is impact his success rate). A .320 OBP over 600 PAs would have him reaching base 192 times, so I guess it's possible he could steal 60+ bases with a .320 OBP. I'm just not sure how many extra runs that would mean hitting in front of guys who might be able to knock him in anyway. I do think his raw speed will help. A guy with an OBP that low can't reduce it even more by getting thrown out (or picked off) much. If he's an Eric Davis like 50 steals in 55 attempts, I'd agree that he can make up for some of his lack of hitting. If he's more in the 50 steals in 70 attempts range, I'm not excited at all.
    I figure he is a +45 steals guy (SB-CS). I think his overall base running will put him in the elite category of all of baseball, which going by the leaders of the past two seasons probably gives him a full win (Mike Trout territory) on the bases. I figure he probably picks up close to another win with his defense.

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    REDREAD (09-04-2013)

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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Chris Davis is hitting behind Adam Jones.
    Cozart, Frazier, Robinson and Heisey hitting behind Choo.
    And votto. And Phillips. I love choo. His on base ability is not in question here. He is elite at getting on. I'd love to have both be and Hamilton next year but with the budget and what choo will be asking for couple with the fact that the reds top three non pitching prospects are outfielders, I doubt choo will be back. I really think the reds should focus on upgrading the offense at positions such as third or left where you may not have to pay so much of a premium price like you would for a center fielder and let billy have center. If he fails, someone could be brought in. Dejesus has already switched teams twice this year.

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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Got it. Getting on base is so important that we don't even need to discuss it.
    It's so obvious that you want to hand the major league CF job to a guy who couldn't even do it at AAA and won't consider that the Reds should get somebody else and wait until the AAA failure proves himself at that level before handing him the big league job. Because it doesn't matter that he couldn't get on base at AAA, he'll be successful anyway.

    Are you sure you're not my wife? Her logic is exactly like this most of the time.
    Where have I said anything about handing Hamilton the CF job next year? In this thread I said he doesn't seem ready yet, and that will cause problems for the Reds.

    I have conceded that Hamilton needs to improve his OBP to succeed in the majors. I just think it's such an obvious point, since that is true of every prospect, that it's not worth talking about over and over again.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Granted Billy's AAA numbers are not great but they're not terrible. He has steadily improved throughout the year. Let's give the guy a little bit of breathing room and give the kid an honest shot before calling him a bust. See how he does in his cup of coffee and next spring training before passing such conclusive judgments on the guy.

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    REDREAD (09-04-2013),Revering4Blue (09-04-2013)

  18. #73
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    This doesn't tell me much. Far too much data is missing.
    Adam Jones is taller.

    /hopethishelped

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    dougdirt (09-02-2013)

  20. #74
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by herbdizzle View Post
    Granted Billy's AAA numbers are not great but they're not terrible. He has steadily improved throughout the year. Let's give the guy a little bit of breathing room and give the kid an honest shot before calling him a bust. See how he does in his cup of coffee and next spring training before passing such conclusive judgments on the guy.
    I don't think it is unfair at all to say he had a poor season this year. He did. Even his second half pretty much stunk. It was an improvement, but at no point in the entire year could he top .700 OPS in a single month. In August he had a .303 OBP. He didn't show steady improvement, he showed a few hot streaks of 2 weeks throughout the season and a whole bunch of being overmatched.

    Now, does that have much to do with him moving forward in 2014? I don't think so. But his 2013 numbers are terrible and he really didn't show steady improvement throughout the year. Next year he will get to start over fresh.

  21. #75
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    In April, Hamilton went .205/.278/.307. Over the same stretch at the end of the year he went .284/.320/.358. I think that does show improvement. He had no other crappy stretch like he did in April. All accounts I've read on here also says his CF defense has been very good. I still think some are writing him off too early.


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