Got it. Getting on base is so important that we don't even need to discuss it.
It's so obvious that you want to hand the major league CF job to a guy who couldn't even do it at AAA and won't consider that the Reds should get somebody else and wait until the AAA failure proves himself at that level before handing him the big league job. Because it doesn't matter that he couldn't get on base at AAA, he'll be successful anyway.
Are you sure you're not my wife? Her logic is exactly like this most of the time.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Tom Servo (09-02-2013)
I think Hamilton's poor season has too many hopers on here lowering their standards too much. If he has a .315 to .320 OBP (which is already a long shot since it would actually mean having a higher OBP in the big leagues than in AAA), we'll be hoping for a replacement ASAP. SS (and Pitcher) is the only position on the diamond where I'd be satisfied with that. The Reds need to get an acceptable stopgap and wait for Hamilton to take the job away. They shouldn't hand him the job and be left short if he crashes and burns (which is likely given his AAA results IMO).
Lets get him to.350 in AAA before considering him as the prime option in the big leagues.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Hamilton with a .320 OBP in the Majors would make him a 3 win player, without question. I certainly wouldn't want to see him leading off with a .320 OBP, and I know he will lead off regardless of his OBP, but I can't hold that against him as that is on the manager.
Now, whether he can .320 OBP is another question, but in my mind if he can do that, what he will bring with base running and defense will make him rather valuable.
Obviously the Reds should have a veteran CFer to start next season, and then split time with Hamilton when he first comes up. Reds certainly need some insurance for next year.
But any suggestion that the Reds invest in a longer term CFer IMO gives Hamilton too little credit. He did have an .830 OPS and .410 OBP last season at two levels. He's shown some offensive ability to go with his speed.
Old school 1983 (09-02-2013)
How many of those three wins are from his base running? How many steals are you assuming and at what success rate (don't forget to include times picked-off going back to the base which don't count as CS or impact his success rate). A .320 OBP over 600 PAs would have him reaching base 192 times, so I guess it's possible he could steal 60+ bases with a .320 OBP. I'm just not sure how many extra runs that would mean hitting in front of guys who might be able to knock him in anyway. I do think his raw speed will help. A guy with an OBP that low can't reduce it even more by getting thrown out (or picked off) much. If he's an Eric Davis like 50 steals in 55 attempts, I'd agree that he can make up for some of his lack of hitting. If he's more in the 50 steals in 70 attempts range, I'm not excited at all.
Last edited by mth123; 09-02-2013 at 02:09 PM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I figure he is a +45 steals guy (SB-CS). I think his overall base running will put him in the elite category of all of baseball, which going by the leaders of the past two seasons probably gives him a full win (Mike Trout territory) on the bases. I figure he probably picks up close to another win with his defense.
REDREAD (09-04-2013)
And votto. And Phillips. I love choo. His on base ability is not in question here. He is elite at getting on. I'd love to have both be and Hamilton next year but with the budget and what choo will be asking for couple with the fact that the reds top three non pitching prospects are outfielders, I doubt choo will be back. I really think the reds should focus on upgrading the offense at positions such as third or left where you may not have to pay so much of a premium price like you would for a center fielder and let billy have center. If he fails, someone could be brought in. Dejesus has already switched teams twice this year.
Where have I said anything about handing Hamilton the CF job next year? In this thread I said he doesn't seem ready yet, and that will cause problems for the Reds.
I have conceded that Hamilton needs to improve his OBP to succeed in the majors. I just think it's such an obvious point, since that is true of every prospect, that it's not worth talking about over and over again.
Hoping to change my username to 75769023
Granted Billy's AAA numbers are not great but they're not terrible. He has steadily improved throughout the year. Let's give the guy a little bit of breathing room and give the kid an honest shot before calling him a bust. See how he does in his cup of coffee and next spring training before passing such conclusive judgments on the guy.
REDREAD (09-04-2013),Revering4Blue (09-04-2013)
dougdirt (09-02-2013)
I don't think it is unfair at all to say he had a poor season this year. He did. Even his second half pretty much stunk. It was an improvement, but at no point in the entire year could he top .700 OPS in a single month. In August he had a .303 OBP. He didn't show steady improvement, he showed a few hot streaks of 2 weeks throughout the season and a whole bunch of being overmatched.
Now, does that have much to do with him moving forward in 2014? I don't think so. But his 2013 numbers are terrible and he really didn't show steady improvement throughout the year. Next year he will get to start over fresh.
In April, Hamilton went .205/.278/.307. Over the same stretch at the end of the year he went .284/.320/.358. I think that does show improvement. He had no other crappy stretch like he did in April. All accounts I've read on here also says his CF defense has been very good. I still think some are writing him off too early.
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |