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Thread: Who plays CF in 2014?

  1. #76
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Hamilton with a .320 OBP in the Majors would make him a 3 win player, without question. I certainly wouldn't want to see him leading off with a .320 OBP, and I know he will lead off regardless of his OBP, but I can't hold that against him as that is on the manager.

    Now, whether he can .320 OBP is another question, but in my mind if he can do that, what he will bring with base running and defense will make him rather valuable.
    How many of those three wins are from his base running? How many steals are you assuming and at what success rate (don't forget to include times picked-off going back to the base which don't count as CS or impact his success rate). A .320 OBP over 600 PAs would have him reaching base 192 times, so I guess it's possible he could steal 60+ bases with a .320 OBP. I'm just not sure how many extra runs that would mean hitting in front of guys who might be able to knock him in anyway. I do think his raw speed will help. A guy with an OBP that low can't reduce it even more by getting thrown out (or picked off) much. If he's an Eric Davis like 50 steals in 55 attempts, I'd agree that he can make up for some of his lack of hitting. If he's more in the 50 steals in 70 attempts range, I'm not excited at all.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-02-2013 at 02:09 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  3. #77
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    How many of those three wins are from his base running? How many steals are you assuming and at what success rate (don't forget to include times picked-off going back to the base which don't count as CS is impact his success rate). A .320 OBP over 600 PAs would have him reaching base 192 times, so I guess it's possible he could steal 60+ bases with a .320 OBP. I'm just not sure how many extra runs that would mean hitting in front of guys who might be able to knock him in anyway. I do think his raw speed will help. A guy with an OBP that low can't reduce it even more by getting thrown out (or picked off) much. If he's an Eric Davis like 50 steals in 55 attempts, I'd agree that he can make up for some of his lack of hitting. If he's more in the 50 steals in 70 attempts range, I'm not excited at all.
    I figure he is a +45 steals guy (SB-CS). I think his overall base running will put him in the elite category of all of baseball, which going by the leaders of the past two seasons probably gives him a full win (Mike Trout territory) on the bases. I figure he probably picks up close to another win with his defense.

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  5. #78
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Chris Davis is hitting behind Adam Jones.
    Cozart, Frazier, Robinson and Heisey hitting behind Choo.
    And votto. And Phillips. I love choo. His on base ability is not in question here. He is elite at getting on. I'd love to have both be and Hamilton next year but with the budget and what choo will be asking for couple with the fact that the reds top three non pitching prospects are outfielders, I doubt choo will be back. I really think the reds should focus on upgrading the offense at positions such as third or left where you may not have to pay so much of a premium price like you would for a center fielder and let billy have center. If he fails, someone could be brought in. Dejesus has already switched teams twice this year.

  6. #79
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Got it. Getting on base is so important that we don't even need to discuss it.
    It's so obvious that you want to hand the major league CF job to a guy who couldn't even do it at AAA and won't consider that the Reds should get somebody else and wait until the AAA failure proves himself at that level before handing him the big league job. Because it doesn't matter that he couldn't get on base at AAA, he'll be successful anyway.

    Are you sure you're not my wife? Her logic is exactly like this most of the time.
    Where have I said anything about handing Hamilton the CF job next year? In this thread I said he doesn't seem ready yet, and that will cause problems for the Reds.

    I have conceded that Hamilton needs to improve his OBP to succeed in the majors. I just think it's such an obvious point, since that is true of every prospect, that it's not worth talking about over and over again.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Granted Billy's AAA numbers are not great but they're not terrible. He has steadily improved throughout the year. Let's give the guy a little bit of breathing room and give the kid an honest shot before calling him a bust. See how he does in his cup of coffee and next spring training before passing such conclusive judgments on the guy.

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  9. #81
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    This doesn't tell me much. Far too much data is missing.
    Adam Jones is taller.

    /hopethishelped

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  11. #82
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by herbdizzle View Post
    Granted Billy's AAA numbers are not great but they're not terrible. He has steadily improved throughout the year. Let's give the guy a little bit of breathing room and give the kid an honest shot before calling him a bust. See how he does in his cup of coffee and next spring training before passing such conclusive judgments on the guy.
    I don't think it is unfair at all to say he had a poor season this year. He did. Even his second half pretty much stunk. It was an improvement, but at no point in the entire year could he top .700 OPS in a single month. In August he had a .303 OBP. He didn't show steady improvement, he showed a few hot streaks of 2 weeks throughout the season and a whole bunch of being overmatched.

    Now, does that have much to do with him moving forward in 2014? I don't think so. But his 2013 numbers are terrible and he really didn't show steady improvement throughout the year. Next year he will get to start over fresh.

  12. #83
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    In April, Hamilton went .205/.278/.307. Over the same stretch at the end of the year he went .284/.320/.358. I think that does show improvement. He had no other crappy stretch like he did in April. All accounts I've read on here also says his CF defense has been very good. I still think some are writing him off too early.

  13. #84
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Re-sign Choo, please.

    Most think there's no shot. I am holding out hope.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  15. #85
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Re-sign Choo, please.

    Most think there's no shot. I am holding out hope.
    I hope Walt finds every cent available to pay Choo whatever it takes. Walt can roll pennies, nickles, and dimes. Walt can go door-to-door and ask for donations. Whatever it takes. Make the team pay for their own drinks out of a vending machine like the Oakland A's did. Whatever it takes. Sell ad space to the highest bidder. Even if their official name next year has to be "The Cincinnati Reds brought to you by LaRosa's Pizza and Fifth Third Bank." Whatever it takes.

  16. #86
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    It will be hard to go back to a typical leadoff hitter if Choo walks. No matter what the Reds do, the guy in the number one slot will drop off.

    That's not to denigrate Billy "White Shoes" Hamilton in any way; I think he could be decent next year, but I think that if Choo isn't there next year, just how much he meant to this team will become evident.

  17. #87
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by NebraskaRed View Post
    I hope Walt finds every cent available to pay Choo whatever it takes. Walt can roll pennies, nickles, and dimes. Walt can go door-to-door and ask for donations. Whatever it takes. Make the team pay for their own drinks out of a vending machine like the Oakland A's did. Whatever it takes. Sell ad space to the highest bidder. Even if their official name next year has to be "The Cincinnati Reds brought to you by LaRosa's Pizza and Fifth Third Bank." Whatever it takes.
    After this year's promotion, Fifth Third Bank may own Larosa's Pizza next year. . . .

  18. #88
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by NebraskaRed View Post
    I hope Walt finds every cent available to pay Choo whatever it takes. Walt can roll pennies, nickles, and dimes. Walt can go door-to-door and ask for donations. Whatever it takes. Make the team pay for their own drinks out of a vending machine like the Oakland A's did. Whatever it takes. Sell ad space to the highest bidder. Even if their official name next year has to be "The Cincinnati Reds brought to you by LaRosa's Pizza and Fifth Third Bank." Whatever it takes.
    I dreamt that the lack of moves this year was based on the stipulation that Walt would be given a realistic shot of paying Choo.

    Don't get mad at me, as I am not even 100 percent on board with the idea, it was just a dream. Can't be accountable for that!

  19. #89
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Hmmm. . . I dreamed that the Reds signed Chapman a week before they did. I also dreamed that Cesar Geronimo was invited to Spring Training and was the best hitter on the team.

  20. #90
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    The only way I re-sign Choo is if you move Phillips first.

    Otherwise you're going to be looking at a lot of bad money later in those contracts on top of Votto's 700 billion dollars.

    If you move Phillips, play Choo in CF next year and then slide him over to LF when Ludwick is gone/Hamilton is ready, I could go for that.
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    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.


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