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Thread: Who plays CF in 2014?

  1. #91
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Re-sign Choo, please.

    Most think there's no shot. I am holding out hope.
    A lot's going to depend on how much of a increase Choo wants from his 7 million this year.

    Cot's has 79 million in contracts already for 2014. Hanigan and Bailey are due for their third arbitration raise, Leake his 2nd. That'll give us roughly 25 million to handle arbitration and handle any other contracts.

    It's not impossible, but the numbers dictate it will be very hard to do.

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  3. #92
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    I probably would not re-sign Choo to more than a 2 year deal with an option.

    Between Hamilton, Yorman, Winker and Ervin, it doesn't make much sense to carry an inflated salary for Choo past 2015. One or more of those guys will (hopefully) step in and be ready to takeover starting duties for much, MUCH cheaper by that point. I might consider a backloaded 3rd year, especially if it were in the form of an option.

    Otherwise, I think this deal will hamstring the team too much come 2016 and 2017, especially with Votto/Bruce/Phillips and hopefully Latos and one or two other pitchers making a lot of dough during those years. Choo will certainly not be able to handle CF by then, and the Reds have enough in the pipeline to comfortably take care of LF by then.

    What we likely WON'T have by 2016 is a capable, younger cheaper solution at SS or 3B, and Cozart and Frazier could start to get expensive in those arbitration years. If they're worth it, great, but if they are just league average guys that are getting expensive, I'd rather use chips (or currency) to acquire an ABOVE average solution at either or both positions by then.

    Therefore, the big exception to all of this would be if we could pull off a trade of Aroldis Chapman or Homer Bailey for a guy like Jurickson Profar or Xander Bogaerts - because that would both free up some payroll and potentially solve SS for the forseeable future, and for not a lot of money. In that scenario, I'd probably offer Choo something like 3/$35M or maybe even 4/$40M. Until then, my offer would be 2/$25M, with an option for 2016. Whatever you do in any scenario, make sure it doesn't preclude you financially from extending Latos and probably one other pitcher.
    Last edited by Benihana; 09-03-2013 at 04:06 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  4. #93
    Public Enemy #1 Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    I feel like I look at the breakdown of BP's contract every few weeks, shudder, and then after a few weeks tell myself "Well, maybe it wasn't really that bad. I should check again..."
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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  6. #94
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Another former Indian Grady Sizemore who was a teammate with Choo.

    http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/8/1...tract-comeback

  7. #95
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Another former Indian Grady Sizemore who was a teammate with Choo.

    http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/8/1...tract-comeback
    And has not been good since 2008

  8. #96
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Since Stubbs was brought up earlier in the thread, he's got a .678 OPS this year with Cleveland. I checked the Indians board and they think that's just fine for the #9 slot.I really expect him to do .670-.700 for the near future.

    Although-he will be entering his arbitration years soon. That had to be a calculation the Reds made when they made the trade. That-and his terrible year in 2012.
    Yes. Stubbs is not a horrible complimentary player. I think the Reds had to move him to Cleveland to get the $$ to work for Choo.

    For example, if Stubbs was a FA, he'd be a nice stop gap to play CF next year until BHam is deemed ready.

    I have the feeling that BHam's first year is going to require some patience from the fans and the media. The guy was promoted aggressively. He struggled the first half in AAA, but then did much better in the second half.
    I worry a bit about when he's promoted. Is extra time in AAA going to lessen his adjustment period in the major leagues? I honestly don't know, but I can see lots of people turning on him when he struggles the first 6-8 weeks in the bigs.
    Heck, Parra didn't get much of a grace period when he started the year.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  9. #97
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Yes. Stubbs is not a horrible complimentary player. I think the Reds had to move him to Cleveland to get the $$ to work for Choo.

    For example, if Stubbs was a FA, he'd be a nice stop gap to play CF next year until BHam is deemed ready.

    I have the feeling that BHam's first year is going to require some patience from the fans and the media. The guy was promoted aggressively. He struggled the first half in AAA, but then did much better in the second half.
    I worry a bit about when he's promoted. Is extra time in AAA going to lessen his adjustment period in the major leagues? I honestly don't know, but I can see lots of people turning on him when he struggles the first 6-8 weeks in the bigs.
    Heck, Parra didn't get much of a grace period when he started the year.
    Good God no.....Dusty batting Stubbs lead off and in CF 70 consecutive games, while waiting on Hamilton?

    I'd rather Hamilton imitate Corey Patterson but steal 70 than watch Stubbs refuse to dive for a ball.

  10. #98
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    .286/.406/.383/.789 Billy Hamilton, AA age 21
    .335/.402/.386/.788 Willy Taveras, AA, Age 22
    Tavaras wasn't a horrible player in his first three years in the majors though

    age 23, OBP 325, 34 steals, WAR 1.9
    age 24 OBP 333, 33 steals, WAR 2.6
    age 35 OBP 367, 33 steals WAR 1.1 (only 372 AB)

    That's obviously not a star player, but let's say Hamilton replicates that.
    He will have more steals if Dusty lets him run. (I realize the value of steals is controversial)
    Hamilton also projects to be a fantastic defensive CF.

    If Bill H can OBP around the 333 mark like Wily T did for his first three seasons and provide great defense in CF, I'd call that a success for a 2nd round draft pick.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  12. #99
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think Hamilton's poor season has too many hopers on here lowering their standards too much. If he has a .315 to .320 OBP (which is already a long shot since it would actually mean having a higher OBP in the big leagues than in AAA), we'll be hoping for a replacement ASAP.
    But the reality is that there's not many CF that are OBP monsters.

    There's only 13 CF with at least 300 at bats that have been able to OBP 330 or better this year. Lower the bar to your unacceptable 320, and you have 21 qualifiers. Even Span, one of our big wish list items last year, is only OBPing 329 this year.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting...ePct/minpa/300

    That's why I think if BillyH gives us elite defense in CF and OBP 315-320, he's going to be adequate. Not an allstar, but definitely adequate.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  13. #100
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    But the reality is that there's not many CF that are OBP monsters.

    There's only 13 CF with at least 300 at bats that have been able to OBP 330 or better this year. Lower the bar to your unacceptable 320, and you have 21 qualifiers. Even Span, one of our big wish list items last year, is only OBPing 329 this year.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting...ePct/minpa/300

    That's why I think if BillyH gives us elite defense in CF and OBP 315-320, he's going to be adequate. Not an allstar, but definitely adequate.
    I'm coming around to the argument that .315 to .320 might be livable. What I can't get past is that he was at .308 in AAA this year. I just refuse to assume he'll do even a point better in the big leagues. I'm guessing .250 to .275. I'd say for me to have some confidence that he'll reach .315 to .320 in the big leagues, I want to see .350 in AAA. Until then, he's a last resort, not a guy to plan on.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #101
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Why does everybody ignore the obvious comp? Vince Coleman. His minor league numbers look a lot like Hamiltons....

    Coleman:
    A (21) - .350/.431/.399 - 145 steals
    AAA (22) - .257/.323/.334 - 101 steals

    Hamilton:
    A-AA (21) - .311/.411/.420 - 155 steals
    AAA (22) - .256/.308/.343 - 75 steals

    I'll take a pre-(fire)crack Vince Coleman with better D on a rookie contract. Let him steal 100 bases a year, it'll be fun to watch.

  15. #102
    Member NebraskaRed's Avatar
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    Re: Who plays CF in 2014?

    Joel Luckhaupt‏@jluckhaupt7m
    Total Zone credits Shin-Soo Choo with the most runs saved in the NL (27). DRS has him giving up the most runs in the NL (-17).
    Are defensive metrics wacky, or is it that defensive metrics are very wacky? Discuss.

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