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Thread: Hamilton Called Up

  1. #76
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Posted this on a Cards board and thought I'd share with Reds fans:

    I had the privledge of seeing Hamilton last June in the Carolina-California All-star game. He led off and bunted to get on first. I thought that it was a cheesy way to start an all-star game, him bunting and the manager coaching third while clapping and laughing about him being on base.


    Four pitches later (yes I did say 4 pitches ) Hamilton was standing on third base high fiving the manager! I thought "Who is this kid?" so the next time he came up to bat I was more attentive to his stats & was educated. I wondered why he was in high A ball with a .300BA & something like 60+ stolen bases in June. His 3rd at-bat told the tale - he was playing SS and had 20+ errors in 2 months. CIN moved him to AA after that game and put him in the OF and worked with him. It seems he can make it to the show soon but he can't play infield worth a hoot IMO.

    Earlier in this thread it was asked if he should be put back in the infield, I would say "ABSOLUTELY NOT!" but that is just my opinion (maybe only against the Cards )

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  4. #77
    Pimpin...literally!!! dubc47834's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by Old NDN View Post
    Pretty well sums up the entire call-up list. Nothing there to help a team trending downward when they need help the most. While other playoff contenders are making moves looking for some spark, the Reds are content to give out merit badges (call-ups) to deserving young men and hope the underachievers can hang on.
    Dude, that's not what my post was about. Nice job of turning what was said and twisting it to what you want it to. My post was just saying that people are probably expecting to much from BH.

  5. #78
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by NCCardfan View Post
    Posted this on a Cards board and thought I'd share with Reds fans:

    I had the privledge of seeing Hamilton last June in the Carolina-California All-star game. He led off and bunted to get on first. I thought that it was a cheesy way to start an all-star game, him bunting and the manager coaching third while clapping and laughing about him being on base.


    Four pitches later (yes I did say 4 pitches ) Hamilton was standing on third base high fiving the manager! I thought "Who is this kid?" so the next time he came up to bat I was more attentive to his stats & was educated. I wondered why he was in high A ball with a .300BA & something like 60+ stolen bases in June. His 3rd at-bat told the tale - he was playing SS and had 20+ errors in 2 months. CIN moved him to AA after that game and put him in the OF and worked with him. It seems he can make it to the show soon but he can't play infield worth a hoot IMO.

    Earlier in this thread it was asked if he should be put back in the infield, I would say "ABSOLUTELY NOT!" but that is just my opinion (maybe only against the Cards )
    I told you he was fast, congrats to Billy for his MLB debut tonight.

  6. #79
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Kudos to Dusty for the way he used Hamilton tonight. That was exciting!
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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  8. #80
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    No spark tonight.....unless you think Ryan Ludwick definitely scores from 1st on Frazier's double.

  9. #81
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    So, what does this team look like next year with Billy filling the role he was given last night?

    Is this not a great fit with a player like Ludwick? Late inning defensive replacement candidate to begin with...but now you can throw Hamilton into the mix during the prior inning.

    I don't know how many starts he'll get (or that I want him to get) in CF as the primary plan. Nonetheless, using last night as a snap shot of how he can be used to turbo charge run scoring in the middle of a game, does it make you feel good about next year?

  10. #82
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    So, what does this team look like next year with Billy filling the role he was given last night?

    Is this not a great fit with a player like Ludwick? Late inning defensive replacement candidate to begin with...but now you can throw Hamilton into the mix during the prior inning.

    I don't know how many starts he'll get (or that I want him to get) in CF as the primary plan. Nonetheless, using last night as a snap shot of how he can be used to turbo charge run scoring in the middle of a game, does it make you feel good about next year?
    I would like to see the Reds sign Choo next year and use Billy as a PR and as a 4th or 5th OF.

    Depending on what in the market has in terms of power lefty or righty bats, then decide who to keep between Paul and Heisey for the other OF position.
    2014 Attendance 0-3
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  11. #83
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    As great as the SB was.....I wish he hadn't stolen it and was on 1st for Frazier's double.
    Last edited by Ironman92; 09-04-2013 at 10:57 AM.

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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Hamilton is averaging 162 stolen bases per 162 games in his career. That is with 0 at bats. Ratio can only go down from here

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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    I would like to see the Reds sign Choo next year and use Billy as a PR and as a 4th or 5th OF.

    Depending on what in the market has in terms of power lefty or righty bats, then decide who to keep between Paul and Heisey for the other OF position.
    They aren't going to keep Hamilton to PR and be a 5th of. And they shouldn't.

  16. #86
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    I would like to see the Reds sign Choo next year and use Billy as a PR and as a 4th or 5th OF.

    Depending on what in the market has in terms of power lefty or righty bats, then decide who to keep between Paul and Heisey for the other OF position.
    No, no, no. This will become Hamilton's career if the worst case plays out and he can't hit enough to play everyday.

    If he's not playing everyday in Cincinnati (and I think he'll be the OD CFer), then send him to the minors and let him play everyday. He's far from a finished product and needs regular playing time.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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  18. #87
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    Hamilton is averaging 162 stolen bases per 162 games in his career. That is with 0 at bats. Ratio can only go down from here
    He's also the all-time leader in MLB SB% for a single season and career. Nice!
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  19. #88
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    I'm pulling some excellent quotes by RMR and RR (not chronological) from the minors thread about Billy for discussion here as well. My math is probably off a bit at the bottom, but the question is still out there - can Billy replace Choo? Seems like an exciting possibility that Billy's OBP may not need to be as high as we think in order for him to score a lot of runs at leadoff. RBI production and power are another thing for another topic...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Doug, I've run the numbers with some assumptions too and the difference of the effect of speed can be pretty significant on run scoring -- enough to offset a bigger OBP gap than you might think.

    I recognize your point that having the pitcher hit after you makes it much less like you'll score. So I'm not sure what Cozart/Hanigan's real rates are, but go with me for the sake of discussion.

    It's actually really simple math. Likelihood of scoring a run in a PA = (Chance you get on base * Chance you score).

    OBP is the first. 10 points of OBP = 1% difference in likelihood of getting base.

    Since we're multiplying the two together, they trade off essentially equally. A 1% increase in the likelihood of scoring due to your power and/or base-running ability offsets a 10 point difference in OBP.

    So if Cozart is 10% more likely to score than Hanigan because he both hits for more power and runs better, than he can have a 100 point disadvantage in OBP and will end up scoring the same number of runs he personally scores.

    For example:

    Cozart: .280 OBP, 40% chance of scoring when batting 2nd
    Hanigan: .360 OBP, 30% chance of scoring when batting 2nd

    Cozart would have 67 runs in 600 PA. Hanigan would have 65 runs.

    The question really is, what's the real scale of differences in likelihood of run scoring from a given spot in the lineup as a function of speed and power?

    Just intuitively speaking, 10% doesn't strike me as completely unrealistic at at the extremes. While I've advocated for Hanigan in the past, the problem with him is that he's slow AND he doesn't hit for power; it's the epitome of "clogging the bases" in Dusty speak. I don't think it prevents the guys behind you from scoring much as Dusty's phrase suggests, but it's quite reasonable to suggest that it affects your chance of scoring.
    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I think the factors other than OBP are vastly underestimated though.
    Case in point, last year, the lobbying for Hanigan to hit #2.
    Dusty and others are mocked for "Fast guy has to hit leadoff"

    In my example, Cozart scores dramatically more often, despite being in a LESS favorable lineup slot.
    Stubbs scored at a nice percentage clip last year too.

    Even straight OPS is misleading. It's a nice quick evaluation stat. I know everyone knows that, but it is often used as the gospel stat.

    There's a reason why Cozart and Stubbs score a heck of a lot more often than Hannigan, and it's not luck. Even when Hannigan's OBP was high, he was not scoring much, thus his OBP was not particularly useful. Not saying it is 100% his fault, but he doesn't have the skills that Cozart and Stubbs have to help himself score.

    Cozart has 37 extra base hits this year. So 27% of the time he got on base, it was either a HR or he was in scoring position.
    Hannigan only has 9 extra base hits this year. So he was only in scoring position or a HR "automatically" 15% of the time. I want to go back to last year since it was a bigger sample.. 2012 Hannigan 16 extra base hits, which is 12% of the time.
    That tells me more than OPS. That's not even factoring in speed.

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I'm talking about % of times those "on base events" are converted into runs.

    Here's a another example
    Zach Cozart this year..
    when he bats 7th or 8th.
    7th: 20 runs, 37 hits, 6 BB..
    8th: 5 runs, 9 hits, 3
    total: 25 runs on 55 times on base = Zach scored 45% of the time he's on base.

    Interestingly, when Zach batted #2, he was on base 80 times and scored 39 runs, which is
    48%, which is pretty darn close to the rate he scored as a #7 / #8 hitter.

    Now Hanigan..
    For 2013: batting 8th.. 33 hits, 22 BB = 55 times on base. He only scored 15 runs.
    That's only 27%.
    Since Hanigan has been hurt this year, let's look at 2012:
    76 hits, 40 walks, 22 runs. That means he scored 18% of the time.


    Let's compare them to other major league teams:
    I am going to pick a few good teams and bad teams from mlb.com
    Not cherry picking, I just don't want to do the complete list.

    For 7th hitters, percentage of time an "on base event" converts to a run:
    Mets: 24%
    Brewers: 36%
    Giants: 26%
    Braves: 26%
    Cardinals: 32%

    For 8th hitters:
    Mets: 29%
    Brewers: 34%
    Giants: 29%
    Braves: 27%
    Cardinals: 36%

    Again, these were not cherry picked. I did not want to do the entire league.
    Just grabbed 5 teams.
    Seems like, based on these 5 teams, there's not a huge gap in the percentage a guy
    scores whether he bats 7th or 8th. Now granted, maybe if we ran the entire league, and
    did it for multiple years, a different conclusion would be reached.

    But compare that to the discrepancy we see between Hanigan and Cozart.
    Cozart is actually similiar to Stubbs. Nice speed, decent power.
    When Cozart actually gets on base, he scores at a high frequency.
    In contrast, when Hannigan gets on base, he has little power and a lot of his
    OBP comes from walks. So he starts off at first most of the time. Hannigan has
    poor speed, thus he is purely a station to station guy.. That means it takes more
    hits or smallball tactics to get him home.

    This is the entire point. Not all players are created equal when they get on base.
    OBP is important. The guys behind you influence how many times you score.
    But some guys (like Hannigan) lack power and speed to such a degree that their OBP
    is less valuable. Hannigan was healthy in 2012, had 334 plate appearances in the 8 hole and only
    scored 22 runs.. Doesn't that stick out like a sore thumb?
    If you want to blame the other hitters for his poor rate in 2012, Choo was added this year and his scoring percentage
    only creeped up to 27%, compared to Cozart's rate of 45% out of the 7 hole.
    Other teams do not have this large discrepancy based on batting order.

    This is why Hannigan would be a horrible #2 hitter. There's more to scoring runs than OBP, although
    OBP is certainly important. If Stubbs or Cozart could muster a 330-350 OBP, they'd be offensive stars.
    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    We all value the importance of OBP.
    But to say that basestealing is not relevant because the 2,3, 4 hitters should not have to need to rely on small ball is just an absurd statement. (the author you sited, not you)
    Just like OBP is common sense, it's also common sense that it's easier to score from 2nd than it is from 1st..

    Speed plays a value in scoring runs once the batter has reached base.
    We went through this exercise last year.
    Stubbs scored at a much higher frequency than Hannigan when they reached base.
    Putting yourself in scoring position through extra base hits and successful steals is valuable.
    Obviously, there's also a minimum success rate necessary to make steals worthwhile.
    To dismiss the stolen base as the author of that quote did, really doesn't make sense.

    Which is better.. A leadoff guy with a .330 OBP that scores 50% of the time
    Or a leadoff guy with a .350 OBP that scores 33% of the time.
    All other hitters and their outcomes in the lineup are the same.
    Excluding only HR, Billy scores 43% of the time he's on base and Choo scores 31% of the time he's on base. With a significant advantage in XBH and talent hitting behind him Choo still does not score as frequently as Billy.

    Using Rick's conversion of 1% of likelihood of scoring = 10 points of OBP, does Billy need to OBP .297 next year to score the 93 runs in 133 games that Choo has? (.417 OBP-(12 points difference in scoring frequency*10) = .297 OBP) Is that the correct use of your numbers Rick?

    2012 Billy scored 45% of the time
    Minors career it is 42% of the time
    Majors career is an astounding 100% of the time.

    Choo has scored 29% of the time in his career in various places in the lineup.

    All these numbers are minus home runs.

    And Jose Reyes has scored 39% in his mlb career, while also score 47% of the time in the minors. Perhaps we should adjust downward for Billy to the 37-40% range for a reasonable outcome in the majors. Reyes was a stealer in the minors but only reached 58 sb in a full season one time, so I don't know if Billy should be adjusted too far down as he's even faster and better on the bases than Reyes.
    Last edited by mdccclxix; 09-04-2013 at 12:12 PM.

  20. #89
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    SB by leadoff hitters in NL this year:

    Code:
                                                                                       
            PA   AB    R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS BAbip
    PIT    649  593   96  166  30 11  12  42  34  13  28  150 .280 .333 .428 .762  .356
    SDP    639  575   81  163  27  7  11  46  34  12  56  114 .283 .349 .412 .761  .337
    NYM    643  583   73  138  28  5   4  40  32   5  48  111 .237 .298 .322 .621  .285
    MIA    618  570   57  132  20  4   8  27  29   9  40   94 .232 .287 .323 .609  .265
    COL    647  565   84  141  27  8  13  51  22  14  73  126 .250 .337 .395 .732  .298
    PHI    633  591   58  154  26  5   5  42  22   8  33   89 .261 .300 .347 .647  .298
    ATL    646  589   90  151  26  5  15  52  21   8  47  101 .256 .313 .394 .707  .286
    LAD    634  580   77  172  33  4  11  56  17   6  44   93 .297 .348 .424 .772  .337
    MIL    633  566   67  163  25  1   6  32  17  12  49   50 .288 .355 .367 .723  .307
    SFG    639  584   79  145  29  4   4  45  16  11  46  102 .248 .304 .332 .636  .292
    CIN    654  536   98  154  36  3  19  48  15  13  95  121 .287 .414 .472 .886  .341
    WSN    632  571   61  153  26 10   5  39  12   7  51   84 .268 .333 .375 .708  .307
    ARI    653  588   95  162  39  8  11  46  11  12  50  114 .276 .336 .425 .762  .323
    CHC    635  575   72  148  34  4  14  54   9   7  53   95 .257 .326 .403 .729  .287
    STL    645  565  108  166  38  6  10  67   3   3  59   85 .294 .368 .435 .803  .327
    TOT   9600 8631 1196 2308 444 85 148 687 294 140 772 1529 .267 .334 .390 .724  .309

  21. #90
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Man, Choo's .341 BABIP this year had me worried about him, but then I saw his career BABIP is .351.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.


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