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Thread: Hamilton Called Up

  1. #91
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    No spark tonight.....unless you think Ryan Ludwick definitely scores from 1st on Frazier's double.
    What if you think Dusty would have bunted Ludwick over, and Frazier never would have doubled?

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  3. #92
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    SB by leadoff hitters in NL this year:

    Code:
                                                                                       
            PA   AB    R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS BAbip
    
    NYM    643  583   73  138  28  5   4  40  32   5  48  111 .237 .298 .322 .621  .285
    MIA    618  570   57  132  20  4   8  27  29   9  40   94 .232 .287 .323 .609  .265
    PHI    633  591   58  154  26  5   5  42  22   8  33   89 .261 .300 .347 .647  .298
    Using these 3 teams for comparison for Billy if he is outmatched, it doesn't look that promising, but is that where having BP, Votto and Bruce can make a difference over these poorer lineups? Plus the fact Billy would track for many more SB's and less CS's than the teams above?

  4. #93
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Man, Choo's .341 BABIP this year had me worried about him, but then I saw his career BABIP is .351.
    For superior opposite field hitters such as Votto, Choo and Mauer, High BABIP rate is perfectly natural.

  5. #94
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by UCBrownsfan View Post
    What if you think Dusty would have bunted Ludwick over, and Frazier never would have doubled?
    I think I actually got to see Frazier TRY to bunt twice.....threw up in my mouth a little.

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  7. #95
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Nice Fangraphs Article on BH.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-o...illy-hamilton/

    “I didn’t send him out there to paint,” Dusty Baker would say. “It was no secret.”
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

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  8. #96
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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  10. #97
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    I don't know exactly what it is, but when I watch Hamilton run, my brain simply can't quite process how fast he is. I still see it, but it's like I have to interpret events in some other way. It's like I can't appreciate how fast he is while he's running, I just notice that he arrives at his destination a few steps before he's supposed to.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  12. #98
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Excluding only HR, Billy scores 43% of the time he's on base and Choo scores 31% of the time he's on base. With a significant advantage in XBH and talent hitting behind him Choo still does not score as frequently as Billy.

    Using Rick's conversion of 1% of likelihood of scoring = 10 points of OBP, does Billy need to OBP .297 next year to score the 93 runs in 133 games that Choo has? (.417 OBP-(12 points difference in scoring frequency*10) = .297 OBP) Is that the correct use of your numbers Rick?

    2012 Billy scored 45% of the time
    Minors career it is 42% of the time
    Majors career is an astounding 100% of the time.

    Choo has scored 29% of the time in his career in various places in the lineup.

    All these numbers are minus home runs.

    And Jose Reyes has scored 39% in his mlb career, while also score 47% of the time in the minors. Perhaps we should adjust downward for Billy to the 37-40% range for a reasonable outcome in the majors. Reyes was a stealer in the minors but only reached 58 sb in a full season one time, so I don't know if Billy should be adjusted too far down as he's even faster and better on the bases than Reyes.
    Yes, that's a correct use of my conversion.

    You ended up in the same place I did, with the question of what reasonable assumptions we can make about the likelihood of each player scoring.

    However, I wouldn't forget to add the HR back in to the equation at the end of the whole thing. If we're talking about a roughly equal trade-off in terms of runs scoring from the bases, slugging isn't completely wasted at the top of the lineup, especially considering it comes with more plate appearances.

    Personally, I'd bat Billy Hamilton 9th. Give him more value on the bases by batting him ahead of the team's best hitters without the cost of giving so many PA to a guy who will likely slug under .400.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #99
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Yes, that's a correct use of my conversion.

    You ended up in the same place I did, with the question of what reasonable assumptions we can make about the likelihood of each player scoring.

    However, I wouldn't forget to add the HR back in to the equation at the end of the whole thing. If we're talking about a roughly equal trade-off in terms of runs scoring from the bases, slugging isn't completely wasted at the top of the lineup, especially considering it comes with more plate appearances.

    Personally, I'd bat Billy Hamilton 9th. Give him more value on the bases by batting him ahead of the team's best hitters without the cost of giving so many PA to a guy who will likely slug under .400.
    True. I am leaving the slugging out just to see how many runs he can score without it. So, the next question is, since Billy will never hit more than 10 home runs in a season (in all likelihood), what does Billy need to reach in OBP to equal the run production from Choo that results from his better power? Just looking at Choo's 48 RBIs you can't imagine Billy getting to that by this point, maybe more like 20-30?

  14. #100
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Billy Hamilton has been on base 10 times in his MLB career.

    He has 9 stolen bases and 6 runs scored.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  16. #101
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Billy is hitting .429 with a .556 OBp and .571 SLG. He also has 9 stolen bases. If he keeps this up he will be pretty good.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  17. #102
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Hamilton's 9 steals is tied for 37th in the NL

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  19. #103
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    I'd take the Choo, Hamilton and Bruce outfield that we saw last night for the next 3-4 years.

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  21. #104
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    I'd take the Choo, Hamilton and Bruce outfield that we saw last night for the next 3-4 years.
    Hamilton
    Choo
    Votto
    Phillips
    Bruce
    Frazier
    Mes
    Cozart

    Last edited by Dan; 09-19-2013 at 08:16 AM. Reason: Switched Bruce and Phillips in the order
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

  22. #105
    Member OesterPoster's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton Called Up

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    I'd take the Choo, Hamilton and Bruce outfield that we saw last night for the next 3-4 years.
    I'd commit to a partial season ticket package if that happens.


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