Hamilton Called Up

[UCBrownsfan]

No spark tonight.....unless you think Ryan Ludwick definitely scores from 1st on Frazier's double.

What if you think Dusty would have bunted Ludwick over, and Frazier never would have doubled?

[mdccclxix]

SB by leadoff hitters in NL this year:

                                                                                   
        PA   AB    R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS BAbip

NYM    643  583   73  138  28  5   4  40  32   5  48  111 .237 .298 .322 .621  .285
MIA    618  570   57  132  20  4   8  27  29   9  40   94 .232 .287 .323 .609  .265
PHI    633  591   58  154  26  5   5  42  22   8  33   89 .261 .300 .347 .647  .298

Using these 3 teams for comparison for Billy if he is outmatched, it doesn't look that promising, but is that where having BP, Votto and Bruce can make a difference over these poorer lineups? Plus the fact Billy would track for many more SB's and less CS's than the teams above?

[Ironman92]

What if you think Dusty would have bunted Ludwick over, and Frazier never would have doubled?

I think I actually got to see Frazier TRY to bunt twice.....threw up in my mouth a little.

[TSJ55]

Nice Fangraphs Article on BH.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-o...illy-hamilton/

“I didn’t send him out there to paint,” Dusty Baker would say. “It was no secret.”

[Chip R]

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...billy-hamilton

[RedsManRick]

I don't know exactly what it is, but when I watch Hamilton run, my brain simply can't quite process how fast he is. I still see it, but it's like I have to interpret events in some other way. It's like I can't appreciate how fast he is while he's running, I just notice that he arrives at his destination a few steps before he's supposed to.

[RedsManRick]

Excluding only HR, Billy scores 43% of the time he's on base and Choo scores 31% of the time he's on base. With a significant advantage in XBH and talent hitting behind him Choo still does not score as frequently as Billy.

Using Rick's conversion of 1% of likelihood of scoring = 10 points of OBP, does Billy need to OBP .297 next year to score the 93 runs in 133 games that Choo has? (.417 OBP-(12 points difference in scoring frequency*10) = .297 OBP) Is that the correct use of your numbers Rick?

2012 Billy scored 45% of the time
Minors career it is 42% of the time
Majors career is an astounding 100% of the time.

Choo has scored 29% of the time in his career in various places in the lineup.

All these numbers are minus home runs.

And Jose Reyes has scored 39% in his mlb career, while also score 47% of the time in the minors. Perhaps we should adjust downward for Billy to the 37-40% range for a reasonable outcome in the majors. Reyes was a stealer in the minors but only reached 58 sb in a full season one time, so I don't know if Billy should be adjusted too far down as he's even faster and better on the bases than Reyes.

Yes, that's a correct use of my conversion.

You ended up in the same place I did, with the question of what reasonable assumptions we can make about the likelihood of each player scoring.

However, I wouldn't forget to add the HR back in to the equation at the end of the whole thing. If we're talking about a roughly equal trade-off in terms of runs scoring from the bases, slugging isn't completely wasted at the top of the lineup, especially considering it comes with more plate appearances.

Personally, I'd bat Billy Hamilton 9th. Give him more value on the bases by batting him ahead of the team's best hitters without the cost of giving so many PA to a guy who will likely slug under .400.

[mdccclxix]

Yes, that's a correct use of my conversion.

You ended up in the same place I did, with the question of what reasonable assumptions we can make about the likelihood of each player scoring.

However, I wouldn't forget to add the HR back in to the equation at the end of the whole thing. If we're talking about a roughly equal trade-off in terms of runs scoring from the bases, slugging isn't completely wasted at the top of the lineup, especially considering it comes with more plate appearances.

Personally, I'd bat Billy Hamilton 9th. Give him more value on the bases by batting him ahead of the team's best hitters without the cost of giving so many PA to a guy who will likely slug under .400.

True. I am leaving the slugging out just to see how many runs he can score without it. So, the next question is, since Billy will never hit more than 10 home runs in a season (in all likelihood), what does Billy need to reach in OBP to equal the run production from Choo that results from his better power? Just looking at Choo's 48 RBIs you can't imagine Billy getting to that by this point, maybe more like 20-30?

[757690]

Billy Hamilton has been on base 10 times in his MLB career.

He has 9 stolen bases and 6 runs scored.

[RedsBaron]

Billy is hitting .429 with a .556 OBp and .571 SLG. He also has 9 stolen bases. If he keeps this up he will be pretty good.

[klw]

Hamilton's 9 steals is tied for 37th in the NL

[RiverRat13]

I'd take the Choo, Hamilton and Bruce outfield that we saw last night for the next 3-4 years.

[WrongVerb]

I'd take the Choo, Hamilton and Bruce outfield that we saw last night for the next 3-4 years.

Hamilton
Choo
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Frazier
Mes
Cozart

[OesterPoster]

I'd take the Choo, Hamilton and Bruce outfield that we saw last night for the next 3-4 years.

I'd commit to a partial season ticket package if that happens.

[REDREAD]

I thought the Astros had him on the last steal attempt. That pitchout really looked good (Even Welsh said that it's hard to do a pitch out better than that).
My jaw dropped when Billy made it pretty easily. I think Billy's stomach was on the base from sliding when the tag was applied?

I wonder if Dusty is going to let Hamilton steal 3rd. I know that's way out of Dusty's normal comfort zone, but maybe next year.