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Thread: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

  1. #1
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Leake innings pitched

    138.1
    167.2
    179.0

    He's now at 169.1 with a month to go

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  3. #2
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    Leake innings pitched

    138.1
    167.2
    179.0

    He's now at 169.1 with a month to go
    That makes sense.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

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    Member NebraskaRed's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    I'd have no problem with him skipping a start and having Reynolds replace him. If Cingrani's back is okay, of course.

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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    If that's the case, and Cingrani isn't healthy, it's going to become pretty scary, pretty fast. We don't really have anyone else ready to come up.

    I guess we could rest Chapman for 5-6 days and start him in the playoffs, but I don't see him making it past 4 innings.

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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    Leake innings pitched

    138.1
    167.2
    179.0

    He's now at 169.1 with a month to go
    He's at 173.2 right now. He has 5 more starts. If he averages 6 innings a start, that puts him at 203.2. That doesn't seem too much to me.

    Still, I have no problem skipping him. I actually would like to see every pitcher skipped once this month, but that's not such a good idea with the division still in sight.
    Last edited by 757690; 09-02-2013 at 05:22 AM.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #6
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Baseball-reference.com needs to update their numbers

  9. #7
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Leake is 25 (26 in November) a 50 inning jump shouldn't be too much at this point. He's not a 21 or 22 y/o whose body is still in its formative years. That is really where these seasonal innings jumps matter the most.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    There's an effect of innings....but it's sample size. I think we're seeing him regress toward the mean as his luck metrics move back into line with his career norms.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Leake's homer rate and line drive rate increased in July and August. July numbers showed him slipping. This would be before the innings really piled up.

    Leake seems to be throwing fewer fastballs and sliders this year, more curves and changes. According to Fangraphs charts. Probably the league figured this out.

  13. #10
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    There's an effect of innings....but it's sample size. I think we're seeing him regress toward the mean as his luck metrics move back into line with his career norms.
    I agree, but that's a still a very good thing. He's basically reverting back to Arroyo, who as been his comp since Leake started his career.

    If Leake can give the Reds a bunch of 200 IP, 3.50 ERA years, that would be great.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I agree, but that's a still a very good thing. He's basically reverting back to Arroyo, who as been his comp since Leake started his career.

    If Leake can give the Reds a bunch of 200 IP, 3.50 ERA years, that would be great.
    He's reverting back to a backend starter. BTW Arroyo has a career era of 4.20 and has had a single season of 3.5 or better era. Leake is heading toward his peripherals which suggests a >4.00 era, a below average starter by today's environment.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He's reverting back to a backend starter. BTW Arroyo has a career era of 4.20 and has had a single season of 3.5 or better era. Leake is heading toward his peripherals which suggests a >4.00 era, a below average starter by today's environment.
    Arroyo has put up around a 3.75 ERA four out of the last five years. His other year, he was sick. That's well above average.

    We'll see how those peripherals play out. The same was said of Arroyo and he's done okay.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #13
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Since he's began hitting....his pitching has dropped. In the past 3 games he sprinted around the bases and then stunk the next innings. I would hope a young athletic guy wouldn't be bothered by that....

    About 4 games ago he looked like he was sick and working insanely slow....hasn't been worth a darn since.

  17. #14
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Arroyo has put up around a 3.75 ERA four out of the last five years. His other year, he was sick. That's well above average.

    We'll see how those peripherals play out. The same was said of Arroyo and he's done okay.
    Not sure why you'd keep giving Arroyo credit due the defense behind him because you've certainly been shown multiple times so as to know better.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  18. #15
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Not sure why you'd keep giving Arroyo credit due the defense behind him because you've certainly been shown multiple times so as to know better.
    Because sometimes pitchers have a defense behind them


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