Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 31 to 41 of 41

Thread: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

  1. #31
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,991

    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Of course the better defense helped, but to argue that that explains everything is overly simplistic. There was a lot more to it.

    1. Arroyo adjusted his pitching style to take advantage of the better defense, as mth123 has stated. Other Reds pitchers didn't benefit from that same defense, which supports this notion. Bailey underperformed his peripherals over those three seasons from 2009-2011. As did Harang his two years with the Reds during that period. Cueto didn't improve with the defense, until he adjusted his pitching style in 2011. And Volquez got much worse, despite the better defense. So it clearly wasn't just the defense, or else all the other starting pitchers would have benefited as well.

    2. If you look closer, except for 2008 and 2011, Arroyo really didn't improve all that much. He was very similar in terms of how he compared to the rest of the league. Meaning his ERA went down as scoring went down across the league. From 2007-now, Arroyo has produced between a 105-111 ERA+ every year except for 2008 and 2011. So he hasn't improved that much, compared to the league. Scoring has just gone down everywhere.

    So yeah, the Reds improved defense has helped Arroyo, but that's not the whole story, not even close.
    It gets one about 85-90% of the way there. That's very close.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #32
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,843

    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He adjusted to become more of a ground ball pitcher before the defense got better. It didn't impact his ERA until the defense got better. I think when a pitcher's game is predicated on inducing contact, the defense behind him matters a lot. And again, there is nothing slavish about that is there?
    I think it's incredibly slavish. You are looking at FIP and the components that go into it and nothing else. It's why I hate these calculations that create hypothetical results. People look at the number, do absolutely no actual thinking and ignore anything that the formula doesn't account for. So, following your logic, why was it that the year Arroyo had his best K-Rate was his worst ERA? He didn't have any worse defense in 2008 than in 2006 or 2007 (arguably better actually because Griffey was out of CF and a good defender in Patterson was playing there. By season's end, Griffey and Dunn were gone). Why didn't he have a better ERA in 2008 than 2007 when his K Rate was up over half a K per 9? Could it be that there are other things that the formula doesn't explain besides luck?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  4. #33
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,991

    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think it's incredibly slavish. You are looking at FIP and the components that go into it and nothing else.
    That's simply not true. One has to actually purposefully ignore parts of my posts to make that statement or one has to not understand the actual argument. I have looked at his peripherals, batted ball tendencies, luck metrics, and the quality of the defense behind him. You've on the other hand essentially ignored a lot of that list without any compelling justification.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    People look at the number, do absolutely no actual thinking and ignore anything that the formula doesn't account for.
    This is like the third time you've suggested that someone who holds a different view than you doesn't think. Please stop it.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    So, following your logic, why was it that the year Arroyo had his best K-Rate was his worst ERA?
    He posted his worst Krate of his career in 2011, the same year as he posted his worst ERA as a Red. His ERA had alot to do with the crazy number of homers he gave up-something his defense couldn't compensate for....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    He didn't have any worse defense in 2008 than in 2006 or 2007 (arguably better actually because Griffey was out of CF and a good defender in Patterson was playing there. By season's end, Griffey and Dunn were gone). Why didn't he have a better ERA in 2008 than 2007 when his K Rate was up over half a K per 9? Could it be that there are other things that the formula doesn't explain besides luck?
    His ERA in 2006 can be explained by looking at his luck metrics-unsustainably favorable LOB% and BABIP and some good old fashioned happy circumstance in 2006 helped him outperform his peripherals. They regressed in 2007 and 2008 and so too did his ERA.

    Look there...not a single slavish mention or reliance upon FIP.
    Last edited by jojo; 09-02-2013 at 07:45 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #34
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,843

    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    That's simply not true. One has to actually purposefully ignore parts of my posts to make that statement or one has to not understand the actual argument. I have looked at his peripherals, batted ball tendencies, luck metrics, and the quality of the defense behind him. You've on the other hand essentially ignored a lot of that list without any compelling justification.



    This is like the third time you've suggested that someone who holds a different view than you doesn't think. Please stop it.



    He posted his worst Krate of his career in 2011, the same year as he posted his worst ERA as a Red. His ERA had alot to do with the crazy number of homers he gave up-something his defense couldn't compensate for....



    His ERA in 2006 can be explained by looking at his luck metrics-unsustainably favorable LOB% and BABIP and some good old fashioned happy circumstance in 2006 helped him outperform his peripherals. They regressed in 2007 and 2008 and so too did his ERA.

    Look there...not a single slavish mention or reliance upon FIP.
    Again, forgetting 2011, which was a year under completely different conditions than the others, 2008 was Arroyo's worst ERA with his best K-Rate (over 10% better than in 2007) . His BABIP vs 2007 was basically the same. The Defense was the same except for the 2 months where Dunn and Griffey were gone in 2008 which made 2008 better. Why was Arroyo's ERA a half a run higher in 2008 vs. 2007? He was transitioning to more ground balls and in fact did make those statistical changes in 2008. However, in the process, his walks went up 13.7% and his HR/FB rate went up 36% from 2007. He was making mistakes during his transition that was getting him tattooed occasionally. Once the adjustment was complete, that HR rate and walk rate dropped. His defense absolutely improved, but Arroyo did too and ignoring that fact is absolutely being a slave to the stat.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #35
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,991

    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    His defense absolutely improved, but Arroyo did too and ignoring that fact is absolutely being a slave to the stat.
    Again, which stat is the "master" in your argument that those not agreeing with you can't think? What exactly is slavish about considering Arroyo's peripherals, batted ball tendencies, luck metrics, and the quality of the defense behind him in totality? It's a strange argument to accuse others of ignoring something while telling them to ignore seasons....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Again, forgetting 2011, which was a year under completely different conditions than the others, 2008 was Arroyo's worst ERA with his best K-Rate (over 10% better than in 2007) . His BABIP vs 2007 was basically the same. The Defense was the same except for the 2 months where Dunn and Griffey were gone in 2008 which made 2008 better. Why was Arroyo's ERA a half a run higher in 2008 vs. 2007?
    There is a thing called randomness. Look at Volquez's pre- and post ASB in 2008. he was almost the same pitcher based upon what he could control but his ERA was over 2 runs higher after the all-star break.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    He was transitioning to more ground balls and in fact did make those statistical changes in 2008. However, in the process, his walks went up 13.7% and his HR/FB rate went up 36% from 2007. He was making mistakes during his transition that was getting him tattooed occasionally. Once the adjustment was complete, that HR rate and walk rate dropped.
    This is a narrative that fits your preconceived view of pitching. That's fine and all but there is no compelling reason for someone to claim this is fact and those who disagree are slavish or unable to reason.

    Why might someone reason that it is not a compelling narrative?

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=721

    My take on Arroyo?

    His ERA has been driven by his BABIP both of which have dramatically improved with the significant improvement of the defense behind him. In other words, significant interaction between his performance and the Reds defense is a large reason why he's outperformed his peripherals so dramatically (i.e. his ERA has been better than his FIP would predict) over the last several seasons. Or to say it another way, put him in front of the Reds defense of 2006-2008 and his ERA would be much closer to his FIP.

    Why do I argue this?

    Here is a breakdown of Arroyo by year showing his ERA, FIP and BABIP. When the FIP-ERA is positive, it means his ERA was lower than his peripherals would predict (i.e. his ERA outperformed his FIP):

    Code:
    Arroyo				
    Season	ERA	FIP	FIP-ERA	BABIP
    2006	3.29	4.15	0.86	0.271
    2007	4.23	4.57	0.34	0.309
    2008	4.77	4.5	-0.27	0.314
    2009	3.84	4.78	0.94	0.265
    2010	3.88	4.61	0.73	0.239
    2011	5.07	5.71	0.64	0.278
    It's important to note that Arroyo's ERA has outperformed his FIP in 5 of the 6 seasons he's been a Red. But many would agree his 2006 ERA was an anomaly that was unsustainble. Certainly the magnitude of difference between his FIP and ERA spanning the 2009-2011 seasons would not have been expected based upon his prior performance or legitimately ascribed to a skillset. Realizing some may argue this point, below follow a few tables that hopefully demonstrate why one might make the above statement.

    Here's the same breakdown for the Reds' pitching staff over the same years:

    Code:
    Reds				
    Season	ERA	FIP	FIP-ERA	BABIP
    2006	4.51	4.63	0.12	0.31
    2007	4.94	4.55	-0.39	0.31
    2008	4.55	4.53	-0.02	0.312
    2009	4.18	4.66	0.48	0.283
    2010	4.01	4.18	0.17	0.288
    2011	4.16	4.45	0.29	0.282
    Here are the BABIP for the Reds staff and Arroyo for the two periods of his tenure as a Red (2006-2008 where the Reds had one of the worst defenses in the league and 2009-2011 where the Reds had one of the best defenses in the league):

    Code:
    BABIP by defensive performance
    	         Reds	  Arroyo
    2006-08	         0.311	  0.298
    2009-11	         0.284	  0.261
    Decrease	-0.026	 -0.037
    The data above indicates that for the period of 2009-2011 when Arroyo's ERA has significantly outperformed his FIP despite declining peripherals, the Red's staff as a whole has consistently out tperformed it's FIP as well. The third table suggests the reason why-the dramatically improved defense has driven a large part of this outcome. So he did not outperform his FIP independent of significant influence by his defense.

    So in other words, if the Reds were to pay market value for Arroyo's production over the last several seasons, they'd essentially be "paying double" for the cost associated with building their defense. This also can explain why Arroyo does not have a great deal of trade value despite his ERA's.

    All of that said, a look at Arroyo as a Reds does seem to suggest he has outperformed his peripherals to a greater degree than can solely be explained by the impact of the defense behind him. So there may be room to poke at something interesting here, albeit a minor effect. However, when looking at his time as a Pirate and BoSock, he displayed no discernible ability to consistently outperform his peripherals.

    The ultimate take home? If they can get a legit arm for their rotation, they should. At least Arroyo should not be a rationale for preventing such a trade.
    Many of these same lessons can be applied to Leake.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #36
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    10,684

    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Again, which stat is the "master" in your argument that those not agreeing with you can't think? What exactly is slavish about considering Arroyo's peripherals, batted ball tendencies, luck metrics, and the quality of the defense behind him in totality? It's a strange argument to accuse others of ignoring something while telling them to ignore seasons....



    There is a thing called randomness. Look at Volquez's pre- and post ASB in 2008. he was almost the same pitcher based upon what he could control but his ERA was over 2 runs higher after the all-star break.



    This is a narrative that fits your preconceived view of pitching. That's fine and all but there is no compelling reason for someone to claim this is fact and those who disagree are slavish or unable to reason.

    Why might someone reason that it is not a compelling narrative?

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=721



    Many of these same lessons can be applied to Leake.
    Your analysis is flawed.

    Overall the Reds pitching staff improved similarly to Arroyo, but that includes Arroyo's improvement. Which means that the rest of the staff didn't improve similarly to Arroyo. In fact, when you break it down, he was the only starter who capitalized on the improved defense. Which means that only Arroyo and the bullpen improved. Why did the bullpen improve? Could it have been because it added Rhodes and Massett?

    Looking at the years you are presenting, it's clear that it was much more than just the Reds defense that accounts for Arroyo's improved ERA.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #37
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,991

    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Your analysis is flawed.

    Overall the Reds pitching staff improved similarly to Arroyo, but that includes Arroyo's improvement. Which means that the rest of the staff didn't improve similarly to Arroyo. In fact, when you break it down, he was the only starter who capitalized on the improved defense. Which means that only Arroyo and the bullpen improved. Why did the bullpen improve? Could it have been because it added Rhodes and Massett?

    Looking at the years you are presenting, it's clear that it was much more than just the Reds defense that accounts for Arroyo's improved ERA.
    Not really so much.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #38
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,843

    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    If it doesn't fit, pull out the randomness card. Slave.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #39
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,991

    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If it doesn't fit, pull out the randomness card. Slave.
    And when your case is invalidated, pull out the name calling.....

    I'll pull out the ignore function.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #40
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,843

    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    And when your case is invalidated, pull out the name calling.....

    I'll pull out the ignore function.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #41
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Hamilton, OH
    Posts
    2,745

    Re: Mike Leake may be running on fumes...

    Bronson Arroyo doesn't have any superhuman skills. He has no special sauce. He is governed by the same laws of physics that control other beings in the universe. ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA apply to Bronson Arroyo just as much as they apply to all other pitchers. The notion that Arroyo's "veteran savvy" has allowed him to outperform his peripherals doesn't hold any water when you take an objective look at the full picture.

    Take a look at his stats below and see if anything stands out as unusual or unexpected:

    Bronson Arroyo's Statistics Since Joining Reds in 2006:
    104 Wins
    92 Losses
    260 Games Started
    1660.1 Innings Pitched
    5.94 K/9
    2.31 BB/9
    1.31 HR/9
    .279 BABIP
    74.9 LOB%
    40.8 GB%
    11.7% HR/FB
    4.04 ERA
    4.55 FIP
    4.31 xFIP
    4.38 SIERA
    15.6 WAR
    96 ERA-

    I don't see anything out of the ordinary there given the fact the Reds have had a better than average defense during most of his tenure, which would lead us to expect he would slightly outperform his peripherals, and he has. He has outperformed his peripherals by approximately the same range as most Reds pitchers have. Cueto, Ondrusek and Cordero outperformed their peripherals much better over the same period, while Volquez and Harang underperformed their peripherals.

    Arroyo has been a league average starting pitcher throughout his Reds career. Like any pitcher he has seen his ERA swing up and down based on fluctuations in his BABIP and LOB%. When all is said and done it doesn't appear that Arroyo has any special savvy or ability to get better results than his peripherals would predict. If anybody does it is Johnny Cueto, probably due in large part to his ability to pick off runners and control the running game.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25