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Thread: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Woulda coulda shoulda trade deadline has come & gone. I was thinking about how the team might do in October.

    The Reds could still win the division but its more likely that we end up playing Pittsburgh or St Louis in the wild card game.

    If its the Cards then facing them & Wainwright in a one game must win isn't very appealing. Bailey & Latos are good but Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in baseball. I know the Reds lit him up last week but I read that he came off of a game where he threw 140 pitches (I'm not sure why). Assuming he is healthy then I wouldn't want to face him. A healthy Cueto could even the matchup but I am not counting on it. Plus it would be the Cards. Call me a pessimist but I don't like the Reds chances against them.

    The Pirates would throw Liriano or Burnett. Both are good but in the same class as guys like Bailey & Latos. Bailey has owned the Pirates in recent years. I'd give him the ball & I would like our chances here.
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    1st pick 2022 B.B. draft George Foster's Avatar
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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    You are assuming that Dusty will have the freedom the last 4-6 games of the season to manipulate the rotation so he can pick his starter. If the wild card race comes down to the wire he will not have that option. The wildcard game I believe is the very next day after the season is over. Latos, or Bailey might have to pitch that saturday or sunday to secure the wildcard spot.

    Assuming Dusty does have the freedom, I think he picks Latos no matter if it's the Pirates or Cards. You have to throw your ace.
    Not this year...maybe a Wild Card

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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    The Reds have a 5 game lead in the wild card but are 3.5 games back of both teams tied for 1rst in the NL Central. So should this situation hold then the Reds may have the chance to adjust their rotation for the wild card game whereas the Cards & Pirates might not (they would want to win every game to the end to try and win the division). Obviously if the Reds had a shot to win the division then they would go all out to the end of the regular season but I think it is unlikely they will win the division (I think the odds right give them about an 8% chance)

    For me I'd like to see Bailey rather than Latos pitch the wild card game. Latos pitched well in relief in game 1 last year but did not get the job done in game 5. Bailey was very good in game 3.
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    Pitcairn Islander Red Buckeye's Avatar
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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    The Reds have a 5 game lead in the wild card but are 3.5 games back of both teams tied for 1rst in the NL Central. So should this situation hold then the Reds may have the chance to adjust their rotation for the wild card game whereas the Cards & Pirates might not (they would want to win every game to the end to try and win the division). Obviously if the Reds had a shot to win the division then they would go all out to the end of the regular season but I think it is unlikely they will win the division (I think the odds right give them about an 8% chance)

    For me I'd like to see Bailey rather than Latos pitch the wild card game. Latos pitched well in relief in game 1 last year but did not get the job done in game 5. Bailey was very good in game 3.
    It's a tough call. Ideally I'd prefer to have a veteran in there who might have better poise. But the only option for that is Arroyo and he doesn't have dominant enough stuff to be called on in a 1 game playoff situation. And I think Latos and Bailey are both a toss up. I do know it'd have to be Homer or Mat. Leake and Arroyo wouldn't even be options.
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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Adam Wainwright is 5-8 with 4.78 ERA against the Reds career wise. This year, he's 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA. I imagine he'd be tough in a playoff game, but he has never been a Reds killer.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Logic tells me to root for the Cardinals to win the division, if not the Reds.

    Things could change, but right now, the Cards would play the Dodgers in the forst round, and the Braves would play the winner of the Reds/Pirates playoff game.

    I think the Dodgers can knock off the Cards, especially with a rotation lead by Keeshaw, Grienke and Ryu. I think the Reds match up best against the Braves, if they get that far. The Braves don't have a great rotation, although the Reds rotation after Latos is a little shaky.

    All that can change and probably will, but as it stands right now, I think the Reds best shot if they don't win the division, is for the Cardinals to win it. However dirty that makes me feel.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Personally I don't throw Cueto until he has a few starts under his belt. He's also not been great in past playoff games.

    Latos all the way. He has the "cojones" that Cueto seems to lack in big games.

    If it's down to one game, Mat is the guy I trust.

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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Quote Originally Posted by George Foster View Post
    You are assuming that Dusty will have the freedom the last 4-6 games of the season to manipulate the rotation so he can pick his starter.
    If Dusty still has a brain in his head, he'll switch the rotation. If it comes down to having to win to make the WC, well... pitch Bailey in that one.

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    Old school 1983 (09-02-2013)

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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Pretty sure I read yesterday that the with the way the rotation is set right now it lines up for Latos to pitch the WC game. I don't think Cueto will be healthy in time to be a factor but I'm not sure I get the Cueto lacks "cojones" argument.

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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    No one should assume that the manager can pitch his "ace" in the WC game, depending on what has happened leading up to it. If the Cards and Pirates (or the Reds) are fighting for the division, they'll go all in to win that.

    Latos is the choice to start the WC game, Baker set up the rotation that way coming out of the all star game.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    Woulda coulda shoulda trade deadline has come & gone. I was thinking about how the team might do in October.

    The Reds could still win the division but its more likely that we end up playing Pittsburgh or St Louis in the wild card game.

    If its the Cards then facing them & Wainwright in a one game must win isn't very appealing. Bailey & Latos are good but Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in baseball. I know the Reds lit him up last week but I read that he came off of a game where he threw 140 pitches (I'm not sure why). Assuming he is healthy then I wouldn't want to face him. A healthy Cueto could even the matchup but I am not counting on it. Plus it would be the Cards. Call me a pessimist but I don't like the Reds chances against them.

    The Pirates would throw Liriano or Burnett. Both are good but in the same class as guys like Bailey & Latos. Bailey has owned the Pirates in recent years. I'd give him the ball & I would like our chances here.
    In a 1 game playoff, the Astros are scary. Anything can happen.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Quote Originally Posted by jhiller21 View Post
    Personally I don't throw Cueto until he has a few starts under his belt. He's also not been great in past playoff games.

    Latos all the way. He has the "cojones" that Cueto seems to lack in big games.

    If it's down to one game, Mat is the guy I trust.
    Cueto has made two playoff starts in his career, one vs the Phillies in 2010 and last year vs the Giants. He allowed two runs (one earned in 5 IP vs a dangerous Phillies) offense in 2010, and struck out the only batter he faced in his start vs the Giants before exiting with an injury.

    So, Cueto has a 1.77 ERA in two career playoff starts (5.1 IP).
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Buckeye View Post
    It's a tough call. Ideally I'd prefer to have a veteran in there who might have better poise. But the only option for that is Arroyo and he doesn't have dominant enough stuff to be called on in a 1 game playoff situation. And I think Latos and Bailey are both a toss up. I do know it'd have to be Homer or Mat. Leake and Arroyo wouldn't even be options.
    Which means Dusty may very well go with Arroyo and his experience! I agree with what seems to be everyone elses opinion... Latos.

    I personally at this point use Cueto out of the pen (IF HEALTHY) If he's not just shut him down completely and let him come back fresh next year. Depending on how he feels you can use Cueto if you see someone doesn't have "it" on a given day for 2-3 innings and not wait until the wheels come off to yank them. Granted that means Dusty actually learned anything watching Latos last year in Game 5.
    Last edited by Slyder; 09-02-2013 at 11:50 AM.
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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Cueto has made two playoff starts in his career, one vs the Phillies in 2010 and last year vs the Giants. He allowed two runs (one earned in 5 IP vs a dangerous Phillies) offense in 2010, and struck out the only batter he faced in his start vs the Giants before exiting with an injury.

    So, Cueto has a 1.77 ERA in two career playoff starts (5.1 IP).
    Wow, well I was wrong. I guess I just remember losing.

  20. #15
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: How do the Reds match up in a 1 game Wild Card playoff game?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Cueto has made two playoff starts in his career, one vs the Phillies in 2010 and last year vs the Giants. He allowed two runs (one earned in 5 IP vs a dangerous Phillies) offense in 2010, and struck out the only batter he faced in his start vs the Giants before exiting with an injury.

    So, Cueto has a 1.77 ERA in two career playoff starts (5.1 IP).
    So he isn't averaging 3 innings per start? Cut him!


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