I'll take the Reds chances against anyone with Latos on the mound. So if we do end up in the one game playoff, I hope we're far enough back in the division we can line up Latos to start.
I like Bailey in a big game, but I think people are overplaying his dominance of Pittsburg. Most of that came in earlier years. They are a different team now, and tough for any pitcher to beat. I'd go Latos, then Bailey no matter the teams or the situations.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I guess I hope they face Wainwright.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
757690 (09-02-2013)
If we can get Latos to pitch the game, then Latos can match anyone on the Cards' staff, but he's not as good as everyone on the Pirates' staff, plus the Pirates have a much better bullpen.
As long as Al Leiter is not on the mound against them, I like the Reds chances.
Great at home; terrible in STL; coin flip in Pitt. In other words getting home field would greatly increase odds of advancing.
That's true right now, but I could see the Reds do some shuffling yet with all those off days in September. If they have a chance to win the division in the final homestand against Pittsburgh, Latos isn't currently scheduled to pitch (he's also on-pace to skip Pittsburgh in the away series too). Right now, he's on-pace for 9/7 and 9/13. I could foresee them bumping him from the start against Houston on 9/18 to give him a start against Pittsburgh on 9/20, then bump him from the Mets start on 9/25 to give him another against Pittsburgh on 9/27.
If you line it up that way, then you have Latos-Bailey-Arroyo in Pittsburgh 9/20 through 9/22, then you have the same three lined up against Pittsburgh at home on 9/27 through 9/29. The trouble with putting eggs in that division title basket, then you've got Latos on 3 days rest for the wildcard, or Leake, Cingrani, or Cueto.
I think the interesting question is if the Cards have secured the division and the Reds and Pirates have both secured wildcards going into the last series, do you burn your best arm on the last game of the season to secure home field for the one game playoff? (Assuming that game makes a difference in the matter) or do you say who cares about home filed, I want my best arm available?
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