Go BLUE!!!
Failed to mention; all of whom have a chance to make the majors and most are still prospects worthy of top 25-50:
Josh Smith, Excellent year
Bryson Smith, Good production
Josh Fellhauer
Steve Selsky
Parker Frazier
Ryan Wright
Daniel Renken
Juan Silverio
Sean Buckley
Marquez Smith
El'Hajj Muhammed
Zach Vincej
Beau Amaral
Alejandro Chacin
Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.
I think Josh Smith and Tim Crabbe both profile as potential front end of the bullpen guys. They both had very solid seasons and are likely to start 2014 in AAA. Not top 25 guys, but I think they're worth a mention as the likelihood of them contributing in the bigs in 1-3 years seems high. It just depends then if they pitch well enough to stick.
Well done Benihana
(Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
-RichRed
Parker Frazier and El Hajj Muhammed could be middle relievers that offer help down the road, too. Nothing like a supply of cheap effective arms to keep from having to overpaying middle inning guys.
You mean El Hajj is still 21 and throws hard and is top prospect material while Frazier is 25 and is close to now or never land? Still I like Parker. He is just going to get his chance next season and do well or bust. And I see mid relief roles in the end for both though El Hajj may have closer in him.
Last edited by RedlegJake; 09-04-2013 at 06:53 PM.
I am not a Redszone regular reader, but the original post here might be the most well-thought out, most comprehensive piece I have ever read on this site. Better than 90 percent of the prospect rankings you read from sources who are quoted as reliable. I do not agree with every comment, but I can't say there is one player that I strongly disagree with in terms of where you have him, and most of your comments are on the money.
Here is the way I would probably list them, as of this date:
1) Stephenson
2) Hamilton (boom or bust prospect)
3) Lorenzen
4) Winker
5) Ervin
6) Lively
7) Y. Rodriguez
8) Seth Mejias-Brean
9) Rogers
10) Arias
Hamilton is going to be the wildcard. As I have said many times, I am not sure if he will hit enough to get in the lineup, but if he does, he will be the most unique player in the game. Those who want to judge Hamilton on stats are wasting their time. There is no stat for positive energy created for your team and stress placed on the opposing team. Of course, he has to hit to play.
BuckeyeRedleg (09-06-2013),lollipopcurve (09-05-2013),mdccclxix (09-05-2013),OGB (09-08-2013),Old school 1983 (09-05-2013),OnBaseMachine (09-06-2013),REDREAD (09-10-2013)
Always a treat to get redsof72's perspective. I like seeing SMB in the top 10. I really like that kid (and am not too fond of the idea of moving him behind the plate).Here is the way I would probably list them, as of this date:
1) Stephenson
2) Hamilton (boom or bust prospect)
3) Lorenzen
4) Winker
5) Ervin
6) Lively
7) Y. Rodriguez
8) Seth Mejias-Brean
9) Rogers
10) Arias
Quick question, 72:
Guillon or Travieso?
I'm taking the Venezuelan, and it's not particularly close.
I would expect that I have SMB higher than some of the national people will have him, simply because he is not the kind of player that they get excited about. As far as the move to catcher...best defensive infielder in the system...not sure why they did not draft a single college catcher to address the shortage at the position. How much will the struggles of learning this position take away from his offensive game? They keep trying to move guys to catcher...Dailey, O'Shea, Soto for a time.
Travieso and Guillon are both interesting prospects. Guillon had one of the strangest years you would ever see. He could become anything from a quality major league starter to a guy that never gets out of A-ball. On his bad days, he is not even really a professional pitcher. Scouts who see him on those days can't believe the Reds think he is a prospect. On his good days, he is unhittable. Sometimes, he transfers from one to the other within the same outing. Very hard guy to project. He led the league in walks and strikeouts despite not being a power pitcher. On any given day, he is capable of either a no-hitter or walking five guys in the first inning and being out of the game.
Travieso is another hard guy to project and it is possible that at some point, he skyrockets up the list. But to put him there now would be doing it strictly based on reputation. Nothing stands out at this point. He supposedly threw quite a bit harder before the draft than he is throwing now. If he gets back to throwing 94-96, there is a lot to work with. Those who rate him as a top 10 prospect are betting that the things the scouts saw in high school will start to come out. Right now, it is kind of hard to see first round ability. But I am not nearly ready to write him off.
Guillon and Travieso both have time to get better.
There are about 10 guys that could be considered for the 8-10 spots on the Reds list, in my opinion. You could even throw a Josh Smith in there and have some credible folks that would not have any big problem with that, even though that will not happen.
lollipopcurve (09-07-2013)
Well done Benihana. I love this thread.
I'm a bit higher on SMB for many of the reasons redsof72 mentioned. Not as high on Garrett and worry a bit on Travieso not missing more bats.
Your insight is much appreciated. I do think Guillon is more of a power pitcher than you suggest, and he has the makings of 3 solid pitches -- fastball, curve, change. Plus he's an excellent athlete (some thought he'd be a hitter in pro ball). Of course, he'll need to show he can maintain consistency over a full season, but I think he showed resilience and the ability to bounce back this year in spades, given his horrendous start. The grand inconsistency displayed between first half and second half could reappear in 2014, but it's also true that in the second half he was consistently good.Travieso and Guillon are both interesting prospects. Guillon had one of the strangest years you would ever see. He could become anything from a quality major league starter to a guy that never gets out of A-ball. On his bad days, he is not even really a professional pitcher. Scouts who see him on those days can't believe the Reds think he is a prospect. On his good days, he is unhittable. Sometimes, he transfers from one to the other within the same outing. Very hard guy to project. He led the league in walks and strikeouts despite not being a power pitcher. On any given day, he is capable of either a no-hitter or walking five guys in the first inning and being out of the game.
Travieso is another hard guy to project and it is possible that at some point, he skyrockets up the list. But to put him there now would be doing it strictly based on reputation. Nothing stands out at this point. He supposedly threw quite a bit harder before the draft than he is throwing now. If he gets back to throwing 94-96, there is a lot to work with. Those who rate him as a top 10 prospect are betting that the things the scouts saw in high school will start to come out. Right now, it is kind of hard to see first round ability. But I am not nearly ready to write him off.
Travieso -- just got to see him flash some top-shelf stuff and I'll be more on board. As you say, plenty of time.
Definition of power pitcher is up to one's own interpretation. I called Mike Leake a finesse pitcher on Redszone before he made his major league debut and people on here told me I was crazy. I would still say that now, so if you disagree, I guess we have a difference on usage of the term.
I would not consider Guillon to be a power pitcher for one reason: his fastball is below average. If he throws 10 fastballs, at least 7 will be either 88 or 89. He will pop one at 92 or 93. But mostly, he is a high-80's guy. He does have a wider variation than most and I read different places that he is a low-90s guy, but mostly, he is a high 80's guy.
Guillon developed an outstanding curve over the second half of the season. The Reds, as an organization, clearly favor the curve or slider over the change-up as a second pitch, as Mark Riggins has said on the record. Guillon has an excellent change-up but they feel he uses it too much at times and gets into trouble. The Reds really like the way Guillon developed the breaking ball. It is not often that a pitcher can add a pitch and get this kind of quality out of something that he was not even really throwing a year earlier.
I never saw him pitch, but perhaps that diligent development of the curveball might account, in large part, for his control problems early in the year and the later improvement in that area. It might also explain, somewhat, how, even in the eyes of scouts, he could look so terrible some days--when the nascent curve is bouncing in the dirt and hanging at the letters--and so sharp on others, when the breaking ball is breaking backs.
OGB (09-08-2013)
Very interesting, 72 -- thanks for the insight. I thought Guillon threw harder. Maybe he can down the road, but I will modify my thoughts about his being able to overpower guys. High 80s doesn't do it.Definition of power pitcher is up to one's own interpretation. I called Mike Leake a finesse pitcher on Redszone before he made his major league debut and people on here told me I was crazy. I would still say that now, so if you disagree, I guess we have a difference on usage of the term.
I would not consider Guillon to be a power pitcher for one reason: his fastball is below average. If he throws 10 fastballs, at least 7 will be either 88 or 89. He will pop one at 92 or 93. But mostly, he is a high-80's guy. He does have a wider variation than most and I read different places that he is a low-90s guy, but mostly, he is a high 80's guy.
Guillon developed an outstanding curve over the second half of the season. The Reds, as an organization, clearly favor the curve or slider over the change-up as a second pitch, as Mark Riggins has said on the record. Guillon has an excellent change-up but they feel he uses it too much at times and gets into trouble. The Reds really like the way Guillon developed the breaking ball. It is not often that a pitcher can add a pitch and get this kind of quality out of something that he was not even really throwing a year earlier.
Still, I really liked the repertoire he showed.
A little disappointed to hear the Reds like breaking stuff more than changeups. I'm sure they're not dogmatic about it, but still I don't understand the rationale.
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |