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Thread: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

  1. #61
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    I am not certain how you reached the conclusion that you did by using those numbers, but that is not correct. Votto strikes out at a higher rate than Cabrera with runners in scoring position. And that is for both considering and not considering intentional walks.

    Code:
    Player	PA/RISP	IBB	K	K%TOT	K%TOT-IBB
    Votto	163	14	28	17.2%	18.8%
    Cabrera	173	17	23	13.3%	14.7%
    I worded my conclusion incorrectly. I should have said a larger percent of Cabrera's strikeout total are with RISP than Votto's.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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  4. #62
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    And if I cared about what you think, that might mean something.

    Rem
    Cared enough to reply.

    Just can't get worked up about strikeouts for a guy with a +900 OPS
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  5. #63
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    What does it say that for all of Votto's disciplined, studied approach to hitting, he strikes out more than Phillips? Yet gets on base at a record pace. It probably says more about strikeouts and grounding out to the right side of the infield. Still, it's not entirely about a Ted Williams-like eye working a walk. Often he works a strikeout.
    Ted Williams wasn't facing sliders and a steady stream of short relievers throwing 98 mph.

    In any event, I found this interesting:
    Code:
    2013		O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%		O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%
    Phillips	37.8 %		69.8 %		52.8 %		64.6 %		88.0 %		79.1 %		47.1 %
    Votto		20.5 %		66.6 %		40.3 %		63.7 %		87.1 %		80.3 %		42.9 %
    Votto & Phillips are making contact at equal rates, but Phillips swings 30% more frequently, including nearly twice as often out of the zone. The result is many fewer walks, many fewer strikeout and many more balls in play, balls in play that are less likely to do damage than Votto's.

    It's never about working a walk or a strikeout. Those are merely outcomes that occur on the way toward trying to get a pitch he can drive.

    If Votto were to swing more in an attempt to be more like Phillips, he'd likely make contact less frequently and do less damage when he did connect. His walk rates would likely dip significantly. His strikeout rates may or may not come down, especially considering how few pitches in the zone he sees already.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-03-2013 at 06:04 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  7. #64
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Here's some more interesting Votto/BP comparison. How often does each guy get in to 2 strike or 3 ball counts and how do they perform?

    Code:
    2013	 		2 Strikes			3 Balls
    Phillips	46%	.274/.305/.387		15%	.309/.568/.418
    Votto	 	51%	.179/.311/.256		34%	.230/.620/.360
    Votto has worked himself to 2 strikes only 5% more often than Phillips has. But he's gotten to 3 balls 19% more often, more than twice as often. Perhaps the patience has worked in his favor.

    But wait....

    With 2 strikes, Phillips has still managed a somewhat respectable .305 OBP and .387 SLG. Votto by contrast falls to .311 & .256. His power has disappeared.

    And with 3 balls, Phllips has put up an impressive .568 OBP, if a less impressive .418 SLG. Votto, not unexpectedly, has put up a crazy .620 OBP, but slugged worse than BP, at .360.

    For whatever reason, save for walks, Votto simply hasn't performed terribly well once he's gotten deep into counts. And it so happens he's gotten in to deep counts a bit more often this year (not shown here). Obviously the walks are great. But the question remains, what has happened to his power? Mostly notably, what happened to all of those doubles?!

    Maybe it's just randomness, but I think some of the concern is that this is the beginning of a permanent dip on the front end of a very, very long contact, a la Todd Helton.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member tomnuetten's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    I´m very interested in statistics but with my english and the fact that I never played baseball in my life, it is hard to understand some...

    here are lots of stat nerds (I like it)... how important is it for you that players (f.ex. votto) make the pitchers work (more pitches) and how can you judge the importance with numbers...

  10. #66
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Quote Originally Posted by tomnuetten View Post
    he is not the issue? ::
    I'm Ron Burgundy..?

  11. #67
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    For whatever reason, save for walks, Votto simply hasn't performed terribly well once he's gotten deep into counts. And it so happens he's gotten in to deep counts a bit more often this year (not shown here). Obviously the walks are great. But the question remains, what has happened to his power? Mostly notably, what happened to all of those doubles?!

    Maybe it's just randomness, but I think some of the concern is that this is the beginning of a permanent dip on the front end of a very, very long contact, a la Todd Helton.
    Good post Rick. To me the question/concern is that Votto is being too selective. He is taking the OBP mantra a little too far and letting good driveable pitches pass because he is more worried about taking a walk down to 1b. I don't think this is a bad thing, but for a guy with Votto's ability and power I want him to capitalize on pitches in the zone and drive them. Not let them pass in order to work the count.

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Good post Rick. To me the question/concern is that Votto is being too selective. He is taking the OBP mantra a little too far and letting good driveable pitches pass because he is more worried about taking a walk down to 1b. I don't think this is a bad thing, but for a guy with Votto's ability and power I want him to capitalize on pitches in the zone and drive them. Not let them pass in order to work the count.
    I think Joey's idea is that any pitch, strike or not, that is not in his HIS hittable zone is verboten unless you have two strikes. In other words, lay off strikes, too, if they are strikes that aren't your own meat and potatoes. He knows they are strikes - he just feels he can't put good wood on them and lets them pass if he has less than two strikes. Only a hitter with incredible discipline and eye can do this successfully. I'm not going to be the one who says he does it too much. He has forgotten more about hitting than I've ever known.

  13. #69
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Call me an optimist, but I simply don't believe Votto's power is going or is gone.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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  15. #70
    Joey Votto Fangirl HeatherC1212's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Call me an optimist, but I simply don't believe Votto's power is going or is gone.
    I don't either. He hit one fly ball last night that just absolutely DIED in the cool air but would have been long gone on a hot August night.

    I have a question though as someone who hasn't played much baseball/softball in her life. Joey tends to choke up on the bat more often when he gets to two strike counts now....isn't that going to zap his power numbers in that circumstance? That could explain why that stat seems out of place. Just wondering...
    "I tried to play golf, but I found out I wasn't very good." -Joey Votto on his offseason hobby search

    An MLB.com reporter asked what one thing Votto couldn’t do. “I can’t skate or play hockey,” Votto said. “Well, I can skate ... but I can’t stop.”

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    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Bonds choked up all the time, but, a different hitter. Votto has been choking up without 2 strikes a lot this season, which he hadn't done in the past. Not sure why. Probably a "comfort" thing. One thing I have noticed is that he seems to be taking more "funky" looking swings this season, almost like he is fighting pitches off all the time. Kind of "twitchy, or "jerky" looking. I'm not seeing that smooth hard Votto swing as much, and I watch almost every game. Doesn't look as comfortable in the box as he used to look. Maybe that's just me, but I don't think so. My son brought the same thing up last week and we hadn't talked about it at all.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
    Fame is man given: be thankful.
    Conceit is self given: be careful.

    John Wooden

  18. #72
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Good post Rick. To me the question/concern is that Votto is being too selective. He is taking the OBP mantra a little too far and letting good driveable pitches pass because he is more worried about taking a walk down to 1b. I don't think this is a bad thing, but for a guy with Votto's ability and power I want him to capitalize on pitches in the zone and drive them. Not let them pass in order to work the count.
    Despite your assertions, we simply do not know this to be true. I assert that Joey Votto would rather drive a pitch than take a walk. He is never looking to walk; he is merely more willing to walk/risk the strikeout than to make it a habit of swinging at pitches he doesn't think he can drive. If he is letting what we deem as "good, driveable" pitches go by, it is not because he wants to walk. Rather it because he simply is not ready or not able to reliably drive that pitch. In other words, while we think it was a "good, driveable" pitch, it was not a "good, driveable" pitch in his eyes.

    Asking him to expand his definition of what a "good, driveable" pitch is suggests we know his swing and abilities to judge pitches better than he does. I would emphasize the readiness piece here. One of the distinctive characteristics of the Votto/Bonds/Williams approach is proactively readying themselves to hit certain pitches in certain situations instead of simply reacting to a generic definition of a "good, driveable pitch."

    Consider using a broader definition of "good, driveable" pitch would require Votto to be more reactive and less anticipatory. This would likely result in more at bats ending in contact, but with worse quality contact on average. And because it would also include more swing & misses, it would likely have a bigger negative effect on his walk rate than the positive effect it would have on his strikeout rate. Of course, the latter point is somewhat a function of the player's hand-eye coordination, though also of their unique swing. Or described different, if Votto had the physical ability to make good contact on a broader definition of "good, driveable" pitches, he'd probably be doing that.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-04-2013 at 01:06 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  19. #73
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Votto pretty much always chokes up and has so for last 3 seasons at least. Does not matter the count. He will sometimes choke up a little more with 2 strikes but not always.

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  21. #74
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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Here's some more interesting Votto/BP comparison. How often does each guy get in to 2 strike or 3 ball counts and how do they perform?

    Code:
    2013	 		2 Strikes			3 Balls
    Phillips	46%	.274/.305/.387		15%	.309/.568/.418
    Votto	 	51%	.179/.311/.256		34%	.230/.620/.360
    Votto has worked himself to 2 strikes only 5% more often than Phillips has. But he's gotten to 3 balls 19% more often, more than twice as often. Perhaps the patience has worked in his favor.

    But wait....

    With 2 strikes, Phillips has still managed a somewhat respectable .305 OBP and .387 SLG. Votto by contrast falls to .311 & .256. His power has disappeared.

    .
    NL this season is slugging .259 with 2 strikes. Phillips is the outlier here not Votto.

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    Re: Votto is not the issue. (Buster Olney Explains)

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    What I don't get is when a guy isn't performing up to someone's standards they always use the guy having the amazing season as the sole baseline
    That amazing season is probably what earned him a $225 million contract. I think if he didn't have the fourth biggest contract in baseball history, this discussion wouldn't be happening.


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