The emergence of Tony Cingrani

[TRF]

He's got to be in consideration for ROY. He's been nothing less than phenomenal, and he seems to be adjusting, developing his secondary pitches. He absolutely dominated the Dodgers.

2013 stats

GP	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	WHIP	BAA	ERA
17	12    77.2	53	26	25	10	30	90	4	1	1.07	.195	2.90

And as a teasing comparison...

Matt Harvey in 2012

GP	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	WHIP	BAA	ERA
10	10	59.1	42	19	18	5	26	70	3	5	1.15	.200    2.73

No I am not saying Cingrani is the next Matt Harvey, but he might be. Matt Harvey this year:

GP	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	WHIP	BAA	ERA
21	21	145.0	99	35	34	7	29	164	8	2	0.88	.192    2.11

The Mets' park is a pitcher's haven, but Harvey is so good that his benefit, if it exists is miniscule. He's good in any park. Cingrani's HR totals at home, compared to the road are even untill you see he's pitched twice as many innings on the road vs. at home.

But he's going to have a better rookie year than Harvey did, at least he's on pace for a better year. Plus he's doing this for a contending team and the pressure of pitching for a contender. It's very impressive. He's been the Reds best starter in the month of July, with Arroyo a close second. Any talk of trading him for Peavy should be completely dismissed. Add this year's stats, IP to his stats at Louisville:

GP	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	WHIP	BAA	ERA
6	6     31.1     14	4	4	1       11	49      3       0       0.80    .133    1.15

He's pitched just over 100 innings this year. ESPN has him projected for 6 more starts, Id say combined he finishes around 145 IP. (assuming Cueto comes back and Cingrani goes to the pen) That'd put him in line for about 170 IP next year.

I cannot imagine anyone expected this performance from him this season. regardless of how he was pressed into duty, he's responded better than anyone could reasonably expect, and is putting forth a better rookie campaign than CUeto, Bailey, Leake, Arroyo or Latos did.

[OnBaseMachine]

If Cingrani can develop consistent command of the slider like he had yesterday, he'll be an ace, IMO. His fastball is already a dominant pitch and he's basically succeeded all season with just the one pitch. Yesterday he flashed a dominant slider and we all saw what happened. I think he can be a Chris Sale type of starting pitcher. Unless the Reds put him in the bullpen or something.

[dougdirt]

Cingrani has been better than anyone could have, or even should have expected. He has had a few questionable games in there where he struggled to eve get 5 innings, but by and large he has been lights out.

As for the ROY thing, for as good as he has been, he isn't really in the conversation for me. Jose Fernandez and Shelby Miller are the top choices and Julio Teheran has put his name in the conversation too. Then of course there is Yasiel Puig. Right now, I think all four of those guys would get a nod over Cingrani, which tells you just how insane this rookie class has been in terms of production right out of the gate.

[RedlegJake]

Cingrani is good but for me its his mental attitude - that warrior fierce bulldog quality that I like. He doesn't buckle under pressure or blowup sometimes like Latos and Bailey sometimes do. He may groove a pitch or make a mistake, sure, but he doesn't let it screw him up - he just goes right back to attacking. Pitching is so much mental. Some guys have all the arm you can want but never get the mental toughness or the intelligence to adapt. Cingrani seems to have Leake's "pitchability" and Bailey's "arm" in one package. Some experience and consistency (and better efficiency) and this kid is going to be very, very good.

[TRF]

Miller and Fernandez, Yes. Teheran i'd put in the same conversation as Cingrani. Puig? Maybe if he finishes the year with the same rate stats he has now. He's certainly the most well known of the group.

If Cingrani had the IP, his numbers compare favorably with Miller and Fernandez.

[dougdirt]

Miller and Fernandez, Yes. Teheran i'd put in the same conversation as Cingrani. Puig? Maybe if he finishes the year with the same rate stats he has now. He's certainly the most well known of the group.

If Cingrani had the IP, his numbers compare favorably with Miller and Fernandez.

Teheran gets the edge because of the big innings advantage. Puig has been much more valuable this season than Cingrani has. I doubt he will tank so bad that Cingrani can catch him.

[BungleBengals]

Cingrani has been better than anyone could have, or even should have expected. He has had a few questionable games in there where he struggled to eve get 5 innings, but by and large he has been lights out.

As for the ROY thing, for as good as he has been, he isn't really in the conversation for me. Jose Fernandez and Shelby Miller are the top choices and Julio Teheran has put his name in the conversation too. Then of course there is Yasiel Puig. Right now, I think all four of those guys would get a nod over Cingrani, which tells you just how insane this rookie class has been in terms of production right out of the gate.

Doug, you are right the rookie clas is insane this year. I would think Cingrani gets the nod over Fernandez just because voters like playoff teams. Puig certainly has been the spark for the Dodgers, but I think his numbers will drop especially after we exploited him during the series (even with the walk-off, he still struck out 3 times in 2 games). Also, Puig was called up a bit late too so that might count against him.

Miller has been solid for the Cards, just as Cingrani has been for us. If you look at their numbers, they are very close in every category, or would be (assuming Cingrani had the same amount of starts as Miller with similar production he has now). Teheran is right there too with their numbers. I think any one of these three could be there. I think Cingrani's being called up a little later and put in BP hurt him, but his SO's are far ahead of the other two. However, his WAR is not as high as theirs.

[TRF]

Teheran doesn't have Cingrani's K ability. His IP is just because he was in the rotation all year. He doesn't have a single stat better than Cingrani. I'd rather have Teheran than Leake, but I wouldn't take him over Cingrani.

Fernandez? yes, in a heartbeat, but I think Cingrani might be just as good. You are right in that this has been a crazy good year for rookies in the NL.

[dougdirt]

Doug, you are right the rookie clas is insane this year. I would think Cingrani gets the nod over Fernandez just because voters like playoff teams. Puig certainly has been the spark for the Dodgers, but I think his numbers will drop especially after we exploited him during the series (even with the walk-off, he still struck out 3 times in 2 games). Also, Puig was called up a bit late too so that might count against him.

Miller has been solid for the Cards, just as Cingrani has been for us. If you look at their numbers, they are very close in every category, or would be (assuming Cingrani had the same amount of starts as Miller with similar production he has now). Teheran is right there too with their numbers. I think any one of these three could be there. I think Cingrani's being called up a little later and put in BP hurt him, but his SO's are far ahead of the other two. However, his WAR is not as high as theirs.

This isn't the MVP. Voters vote for the guys with the best stats and that leaves Cingrani far from the top because he lacks the innings of the big three starters I listed.

[dougdirt]

Teheran doesn't have Cingrani's K ability. His IP is just because he was in the rotation all year. He doesn't have a single stat better than Cingrani. I'd rather have Teheran than Leake, but I wouldn't take him over Cingrani.

Fernandez? yes, in a heartbeat, but I think Cingrani might be just as good. You are right in that this has been a crazy good year for rookies in the NL.

His walk rate is about half that of Cingrani, his K/BB is much better and he has thrown 62% more innings than Cingrani.

Cingrani has been as good on a rate basis as most of those guys. But they all have big advantages in innings and that really makes a difference towards value.

[RedEye]

I've also been impressed with Cingrani's ability to turn on a dime and go from the rotation to the bullpen and back. Not just anyone could do that so easily.

[TRF]

ROY consideration aside, what I wanted to focus on is how favorably he compares to Matt Harvey. Same dominat K ability as Harvey in his rookie year, more innings pitched. The Reds have been able to keep his innings down as to not overtax him at the MLB level. It's been remarkable how good he's been.

[dougdirt]

ROY consideration aside, what I wanted to focus on is how favorably he compares to Matt Harvey. Same dominat K ability as Harvey in his rookie year, more innings pitched. The Reds have been able to keep his innings down as to not overtax him at the MLB level. It's been remarkable how good he's been.

If Cingrani can consistently find the strikezone, he is going to be very, very good.

[BungleBengals]

If Cingrani can consistently find the strikezone, he is going to be very, very good.

Agreed. Although I think the biggest knock against him at this point is his efficiency. Every few starts, he has a high PC going into 4th or 5th inning. Also, he is quick between pitches and I believe one team exploited that by taking time between pitches (can't remember who though).

I think if he is consistent with current productivity, the end of the year numbers will be hard to differentiate from the other guys if their numbers are consistent as well.

Also, thinking more about ROY. I think Cingrani and Teheran might get more consideration considering their teams' offensive production. Miller has the Cardinals who have arguably the best offense in MLB which doesn't make him as valuable as the Reds and Braves need their rookie SP.

[Brutus]

If Cingrani can consistently find the strikezone, he is going to be very, very good.

Especially with his offspeed stuff. That seems to be what he most has problems controlling and probably the reason he relies on his fastball so much.