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Thread: World Series Odds to Win

  1. #1
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    World Series Odds to Win

    Reds not in top 7


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  3. #2
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: World Series Odds to Win

    #6 at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/od...ngs_sort=wspct

    Code:
    Rnk	Major Leagues        Exp Win Loss        Pct   Sim Win  Sim Loss  Div Pct      WC Pct  % Playoff    (Adj)Sorted   WS WinPct 			
    1	Detroit Tigers           81	58	.609	  95.4	  66.6    99.6%	        0.3%	99.9%	        99.7%	     25.4%
    2       Atlanta Braves           85	53	.562	  99.0	  63.0	  100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	        100.0%	     12.7%
    3	Los Angeles Dodgers      83	55	.559	  96.3	  65.7	  100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	        100.0%	     12.0%
    4	Boston Red Sox           83	57	.558	  95.1	  66.9	  93.7%	        5.6%	99.3%	        96.6%	     11.4%
    5	Texas Rangers            80	58	.542	  92.8	  69.2	  60.6%	        36.4%	97.0%	        78.9%	      7.5%
    6	Cincinnati Reds          78	61	.555	  90.9	  71.1	  17.7%	        81.1%	98.8%	        59.3%	      6.7%
    7	Pittsburgh Pirates       81	57	.537	  93.6	  68.4	  54.1%	        45.8%	100.0%	        76.5%	      6.5%	
    8	St. Louis Cardinals      79	59	.539	  92.2	  69.8	  28.2%	        71.4%	99.6%	        63.0%	      5.6%	
    9	Oakland Athletics        79	59	.531	  92.3	  69.7	  39.4%	        56.2%	95.6%	        67.0%	      5.4%	
    10	Tampa Bay Rays           76	61	.554	  89.7	  72.3	  5.5%	        69.2%	74.7%	        41.7%	      4.8%	
    11	Cleveland Indians        73	65	.510	  86.3	  75.7	  0.3%	        11.8%	12.1%	         5.9%         0.4%
    Last edited by klw; 09-04-2013 at 06:34 PM.

  4. #3
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    Re: World Series Odds to Win

    Seems about right really. If all things were equal, reds would be a 8-1 shot. But consider the likelyhood of them playing in the 1 game play off...that's probably a 50-50 game so that hurts your chances quite a bit.

    If they do win the division or get past that first game...I really like the 1-2 punch of Latos and Bailey. Who knows...Cueto in the wings, Billy the Kid running wild in big situations, Bruce and Ludwick catch fire, anything could happen. It's been a strange season, even with the winning I've felt disappointed for most of the year.

    Here are the current odds at a online gambling site:

    Odds to win the 2013 World Series

    Los Angeles Dodgers
    10/3
    Detroit Tigers
    19/4
    Atlanta Braves
    13/2
    Boston Red Sox
    15/2
    Texas Rangers
    10/1
    Pittsburgh Pirates
    11/1
    St. Louis Cardinals
    11/1
    Oakland Athletics
    12/1
    Cincinnati Reds
    14/1
    Tampa Bay Rays
    14/1
    New York Yankees
    25/1
    Baltimore Orioles
    28/1
    Cleveland Indians
    50/1
    Kansas City Royals
    75/1
    Washington Nationals
    75/1
    Arizona Diamondbacks
    200/1

  5. #4
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: World Series Odds to Win

    Good point on the 50/50 game.

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    Re: World Series Odds to Win

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Good point on the 50/50 game.
    be it a 1 game or a 99 game series, in the end all series are a 50/50 proposition. Only 1 out of 2 teams advances.

    Now, you could say it leaves the possibility of a less talented team going further, but the Reds at this point are the least talented team by wins/losses.

    In the end it's about the fact wild card teams have to play an extra series, not the fact it's 1 game.

  7. #6
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: World Series Odds to Win

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    Now, you could say it leaves the possibility of a less talented team going further, but the Reds at this point are the least talented team by wins/losses.
    I'm not sure whether W-L record has much to do with talent actually. Perhaps Pythag has a bit more to say about that?

  8. #7
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    Re: World Series Odds to Win

    Well done, Walt! Hope your notorious inactivity works. ... It won't though.

  9. #8
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: World Series Odds to Win

    The "mystery team" to me is the Atlanta Braves. Hard to tell how good they are to when they play in the crappiest division in MLB.
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  10. #9
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    Re: World Series Odds to Win

    Quote Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966 View Post
    The "mystery team" to me is the Atlanta Braves. Hard to tell how good they are to when they play in the crappiest division in MLB.
    Me too. Personally, I don't see it with them, but we'll see.

  11. #10
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    Re: World Series Odds to Win

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    In the end it's about the fact wild card teams have to play an extra series, not the fact it's 1 game.
    Yes and no... 1 game does change the variability of baseball, especially from a probability stand point.

    If one team wins 60% of the games between two teams it would win a:
    1 game series 60% of the time
    3 game series 65% of the time
    5 game series 68% of the time
    7 game series 71% of the time

    This is just simplistic and doesn't really take in to account much of anything, especially pitching match ups, but in general the more games you play the more likely the better team advances.

    But anyway simplistic probability would tell you that a team that is 60% likely to win a game would win 3 straight 7 game series 36% of the time, or 2 straight 1 game series 36% of the time. So you can see the extra series can have a similair impact to the lessened games.

    Granted being likely to win 60% of your games against playoff teams would be about 110 regular season winner, but I think it still shows the affect of adding more games to a series.

  12. #11
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: World Series Odds to Win

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    be it a 1 game or a 99 game series, in the end all series are a 50/50 proposition. Only 1 out of 2 teams advances.

    Now, you could say it leaves the possibility of a less talented team going further, but the Reds at this point are the least talented team by wins/losses.

    In the end it's about the fact wild card teams have to play an extra series, not the fact it's 1 game.
    Yeah but it's an extra round of 50/50

  13. #12
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: World Series Odds to Win

    So you're saying there's a chance?

    YES!!! YES!!! YES!!!
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


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