World Series Odds to Win

[Ironman92]

Reds not in top 7

[klw]

#6 at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/od...ngs_sort=wspct

Rnk	Major Leagues        Exp Win Loss        Pct   Sim Win  Sim Loss  Div Pct      WC Pct  % Playoff    (Adj)Sorted   WS WinPct 			
1	Detroit Tigers           81	58	.609	  95.4	  66.6    99.6%	        0.3%	99.9%	        99.7%	     25.4%
2       Atlanta Braves           85	53	.562	  99.0	  63.0	  100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	        100.0%	     12.7%
3	Los Angeles Dodgers      83	55	.559	  96.3	  65.7	  100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	        100.0%	     12.0%
4	Boston Red Sox           83	57	.558	  95.1	  66.9	  93.7%	        5.6%	99.3%	        96.6%	     11.4%
5	Texas Rangers            80	58	.542	  92.8	  69.2	  60.6%	        36.4%	97.0%	        78.9%	      7.5%
6	Cincinnati Reds          78	61	.555	  90.9	  71.1	  17.7%	        81.1%	98.8%	        59.3%	      6.7%
7	Pittsburgh Pirates       81	57	.537	  93.6	  68.4	  54.1%	        45.8%	100.0%	        76.5%	      6.5%	
8	St. Louis Cardinals      79	59	.539	  92.2	  69.8	  28.2%	        71.4%	99.6%	        63.0%	      5.6%	
9	Oakland Athletics        79	59	.531	  92.3	  69.7	  39.4%	        56.2%	95.6%	        67.0%	      5.4%	
10	Tampa Bay Rays           76	61	.554	  89.7	  72.3	  5.5%	        69.2%	74.7%	        41.7%	      4.8%	
11	Cleveland Indians        73	65	.510	  86.3	  75.7	  0.3%	        11.8%	12.1%	         5.9%         0.4%

[adampad]

Seems about right really. If all things were equal, reds would be a 8-1 shot. But consider the likelyhood of them playing in the 1 game play off...that's probably a 50-50 game so that hurts your chances quite a bit.

If they do win the division or get past that first game...I really like the 1-2 punch of Latos and Bailey. Who knows...Cueto in the wings, Billy the Kid running wild in big situations, Bruce and Ludwick catch fire, anything could happen. It's been a strange season, even with the winning I've felt disappointed for most of the year.

Here are the current odds at a online gambling site:

Odds to win the 2013 World Series

Los Angeles Dodgers
10/3
Detroit Tigers
19/4
Atlanta Braves
13/2
Boston Red Sox
15/2
Texas Rangers
10/1
Pittsburgh Pirates
11/1
St. Louis Cardinals
11/1
Oakland Athletics
12/1
Cincinnati Reds
14/1
Tampa Bay Rays
14/1
New York Yankees
25/1
Baltimore Orioles
28/1
Cleveland Indians
50/1
Kansas City Royals
75/1
Washington Nationals
75/1
Arizona Diamondbacks
200/1

[Ironman92]

Good point on the 50/50 game.

[scott91575]

Good point on the 50/50 game.

be it a 1 game or a 99 game series, in the end all series are a 50/50 proposition. Only 1 out of 2 teams advances.

Now, you could say it leaves the possibility of a less talented team going further, but the Reds at this point are the least talented team by wins/losses.

In the end it's about the fact wild card teams have to play an extra series, not the fact it's 1 game.

[RedEye]

Now, you could say it leaves the possibility of a less talented team going further, but the Reds at this point are the least talented team by wins/losses.

I'm not sure whether W-L record has much to do with talent actually. Perhaps Pythag has a bit more to say about that?

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

Well done, Walt! Hope your notorious inactivity works. ... It won't though.

[RedFanAlways1966]

The "mystery team" to me is the Atlanta Braves. Hard to tell how good they are to when they play in the crappiest division in MLB.

[Todd Gack]

The "mystery team" to me is the Atlanta Braves. Hard to tell how good they are to when they play in the crappiest division in MLB.

Me too. Personally, I don't see it with them, but we'll see.

[UCBrownsfan]

In the end it's about the fact wild card teams have to play an extra series, not the fact it's 1 game.

Yes and no... 1 game does change the variability of baseball, especially from a probability stand point.

If one team wins 60% of the games between two teams it would win a:
1 game series 60% of the time
3 game series 65% of the time
5 game series 68% of the time
7 game series 71% of the time

This is just simplistic and doesn't really take in to account much of anything, especially pitching match ups, but in general the more games you play the more likely the better team advances.

But anyway simplistic probability would tell you that a team that is 60% likely to win a game would win 3 straight 7 game series 36% of the time, or 2 straight 1 game series 36% of the time. So you can see the extra series can have a similair impact to the lessened games.

Granted being likely to win 60% of your games against playoff teams would be about 110 regular season winner, but I think it still shows the affect of adding more games to a series.

[Ironman92]

be it a 1 game or a 99 game series, in the end all series are a 50/50 proposition. Only 1 out of 2 teams advances.

Now, you could say it leaves the possibility of a less talented team going further, but the Reds at this point are the least talented team by wins/losses.

In the end it's about the fact wild card teams have to play an extra series, not the fact it's 1 game.

Yeah but it's an extra round of 50/50

[RedEye]

So you're saying there's a chance?

YES!!! YES!!! YES!!!