Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 31 to 34 of 34

Thread: Buster Olney: A Bunt addiction burns The Reds

  1. #31
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,565

    Re: Buster Olney: A Bunt addiction burns The Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Because it's a strategy that works about as well as not bunting?
    The chances of a double play at this level are too big a risk to chance having the winning run erased.

    Getting him into scoring position means he'll likely score on a base hit or advance to third with an opportunity to score on an error/passed ball/wild pitch or some other crazy play. The odds of just scoring at least one run increase with a runner at second and one out than they do leaving the runner at first with one out or, especially, having no one on base with two outs. Put it this way: the odds of a double play or an out that does not advance the runner greatly exceed those of a hit.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #32
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    7,968

    Re: Buster Olney: A Bunt addiction burns The Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    The chances of a double play at this level are too big a risk to chance having the winning run erased.

    Getting him into scoring position means he'll likely score on a base hit or advance to third with an opportunity to score on an error/passed ball/wild pitch or some other crazy play. The odds of just scoring at least one run increase with a runner at second and one out than they do leaving the runner at first with one out or, especially, having no one on base with two outs. Put it this way: the odds of a double play or an out that does not advance the runner greatly exceed those of a hit.
    That's not what the stats say though, at least from what I've seen. A runner at first with no outs and a runner at second with one out have almost the exact same odds of scoring, I think. But maybe you are looking at something I haven't seen...

  4. #33
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,565

    Re: Buster Olney: A Bunt addiction burns The Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    That's not what the stats say though, at least from what I've seen. A runner at first with no outs and a runner at second with one out have almost the exact same odds of scoring, I think. But maybe you are looking at something I haven't seen...
    Yes, a runner at first with no outs and a runner at second with one out is almost exactly the same odds. (44% and 42% respectively). That's not the point, though.

    If you try to hit away you have a >70% of losing at least 15% on your run probability (as a runner at first and one out only has a 26% chance of scoring and no runners on with two outs after a double play bring the odds down to 8%). If you take the sac bunt, you won't gain odds, but you keep them the same and get a runner into scoring position.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #34
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    34,378

    Re: Buster Olney: A Bunt addiction burns The Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I agree the Reds bunt too much with their position players, but it falls well short of addiction. The bigger sin is the Reds bunt too much for a team that's not particularly adept at bunting.
    But if they don't practice during games, they'll never improve.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

  6. Likes:

    BRM13 (09-06-2013), M2 (09-05-2013), RedEye (09-05-2013), RedsBaron (09-06-2013)


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25