After brutal extra innings loss to Cards, Reds find themselves at 78-62 with 22 games to play now 3.5 behind Pirates and 2.5 behind Cards. Reds lost one game over last ten to Pirates, stayed the same distance from Cards. Reds went 4-6 in that stretch and now are 43-25 in home games and 35-37 in road games.
Reds lead Nats by 6.5 in race for second wild card; lead DBacks by 7. In loss column, Reds are six up on both Nats and DBacks. Reds with +96 run differential, third highest in NL, up from +91 last time. According to ESPN, Reds expected won-loss (based on RS/RA) is 82-58, so Reds are four games worse than they should be. Based on this same ESPN stat, Cards are five games worse than they should be based on run differential analysis; Pirates are four games better than they should be.
Reds with 13 home games left, 9 on the road. Included are six with Pirates, home and home. Tonight is the Reds last Thursday game of the regular season, three off days on next three Thursdays. This coming weekend, Dodgers at Reds, Cards at Pirates, Nats at Miami, DBacks at San Francisco.
Rosters expanded, Billy Hamilton and others brought up, Billy with two big MLB steals leading to runs. Cingrani due to come off DL and pitch tonight. Marshall, Cueto, Broxton still DL'd. Zach Duke up before 9/1 deadline for post-season rosters, Christiani was sent down and returned afterwards.
Offense - Reds have scored third most runs in NL, at 610. Cards at 660, Rockies at 619. Braves 606. Reds team OPS is .722, fifth best in NL. Reds BA is .250, OBP .327, SLG .395. Below league average in BA; well above in OBP; above average in SLG. Reds with 136 homers, fifth in NL, 1877 total bases, seventh in NL. Reds wOBA is fifth in NL at .316.
Focusing on park adjusted and league adjusted stats, the Reds are at 96 in wRC+, which is the adjusted stat based on wOBA. Reds are tied with Giants for 5th-6th place in NL in that stat. Looking at OPS+, league and park adjusted stat based on OPS, Reds are at 95 which is eighth in the NL. Dodgers, Cards, Giants, and Pirates are at or above 100 in OPS+. League average in OPS+ is 94, so Reds slightly above.
Reds are sixth in the NL in homers at home ballpark with 72, although Reds with fewer home games so far than most teams. Reds SLG at home is .404, tied for 6th-7th. Reds home BA is .251, tenth in the NL and below league average. Away from home Reds are tied for sixth-seventh in homers at 64; have a SLG of .386 ninth in NL; and a BA of .250 which is just above league average.
Reds' bunting big topic in media, they lead league by a mile with 76 sacrifices. Reds with 40 sac flies, trail only Dodgers at 45. Reds steals percentage at 58 percent tied for the league's worst.
Votto slumping now at .301/.424/.489/.914. Over the last 30 days Votto at .223/.372/.398/.770. In same 30 day period, Choo .894 OPS, Heisey .846, Hanigan .821, Phillips .804. Cozart .688, Frazier .678, Hannahan .625, Mesoraco .476 OPS with 13 hits in 61 at bats, one double, no triples or homers.
In last 14 days, Choo .976 OPS, Heisey .957, Hanigan .911, Cozart .905, Ludwick .873, Phillips .865, Bruce .842, Votto .695, Frazier .585, Mesoraco .379.
Reds catchers with OPS of .644, next to worst in NL. League average is .699. Reds first basemen second highest OPS at .893. Reds second basemen seventh highest OPS in NL at .721. Reds shortstops at .631, tenth best in league. Reds third basemen .694, eleventh in league. Left field, Reds at .692 thirteenth in NL. Center, Reds .860 second best. Right field, Reds .818 fifth best.
Pitching - Reds pitchers have allowed 514 runs, fourth fewest in NL. ERA is 3.42, fourth best in NL. Braves, Pirates and Dodgers are at or better than 3.23. Reds starters at 3.37, second best to L.A. 3.09. Reds relievers are now 3.53, ninth best in the NL and worse than league average of 3.51. Reds relief ERA is slightly worse than last time.
Reds team WHIP is best in the NL at 1.17. Reds also lead NL (not even close) at K/BB rate of 8.06. ESPN uses DIP%, defense independent pitching, and Reds are third best at 109.00. Reds FIP is fifth best at 3.66 and xFIP is second best (to LA) at 3.61. Reds pitching WAR is 15.1, third best in NL to Rockies and Braves. Yes, Rockies (17.1). Reds ERA+ is 115, second best in NL to Atlanta, this is a park adjusted and league adjusted stat.
Reds have allowed third most homers in NL at 141. At home, Reds have allowed second most homers at 81. Reds starters have allowed 92 homers, fourth-fifth most in NL. Reds relievers have allowed 49 homers, tied for second-third in NL.
Just focusing on ERA, YTD, Cingrani best on team (assuming meaningful number of appearances) with 2.71, Chapman 2.77, Lecure 2.89, Hoover 2.93, Latos 2.98. On the bottom end, Ondrusek 4.47, Broxton 4.11 only two pitchers worse than 4.00. Partch, Villarreal, Freeman worse but very few outings.
Latos now 14-5, 2.98, 184 IP, 169 hits allowed, 1.19 WHIP, 172 Ks, 50 BBs.
Bailey 10-10, 3.42, 184 innings, 163 hits, 1.11 WHIP, 181 Ks, 42 BBs.
Past 30 days, Leake with 6.28 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Simon 4.50 in that time frame. Latos 4-2 with a 1.79 in that 30 day period.
Arroyo has allowed 22 homers, tied for fourth-fifth most in NL. Leake 19 homers allowed, Bailey 17, Cingrani 12, Latos 11. Among relievers, Simon 8, Chapman 7, Ondrusek 7, Hoover and Partch 6, Parra 5, Brox 4. Best WHIP on team is Chapman at 1.05. Cingrani 1.06. Cueto was at 1.07 when hurt, Hoover 1.10. Partch at 1.42 and Ondrusek 1.35, those two with higher WHIPs.
Fielding - Reds with 67 errors, third fewest in NL. Reds UZR rating is sixth best in NL at 15.7. Focusing on Choo, his UZR rating is -15.1 based on a poor range rating of -13.6.
Yet Baseball Reference carries a Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average based on number of plays made which combines various other measures. Choo rates at 26, the highest of any NL outfielder, with Bruce at 20, third highest and leads all RFers. Heisey rates first among LFers. Hanigan fifth among catchers, Phillips fourth among second basemen, Frazier tied for fifth among third basemen. Leake third in range factor for pitchers.
Anyone with more understanding of these defensive stats could explain the apparent difference in UZR and the Total Zone stats which appear so different on Choo.