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View Poll Results: In the NL in 2013, what percent of hits are extra-base hits?

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  • Less than 20%

    10 21.28%
  • 20% to 25%

    9 19.15%
  • 25% to 29%

    7 14.89%
  • 30% to 34%

    17 36.17%
  • 35% to 39%

    4 8.51%
  • 40% or Greater

    0 0%
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Thread: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    One of the basic underpinnings of the bunting strategy is the manager's mental calculus regarding the likelihood of of the subsequent batters driving in the run from his current base.

    I have a theory. I think most managers over-estimate the relative likelihood of a single compared to an extra-base hit and thus over-value having a runner on 2B instead of 1B (and thus under-estimate the cost associated with giving up an out to increase the likelihood of him getting him there)

    So I'm curious what RedsZone's instincts are on this front. Without looking, what do you think the NL average is in terms of percentage of base hits that go for extra bases.

    (note: I looked at all NL players with 50+ RBI as a rough cut for guys expected to be "run producers" and the proportion of XBH is higher, as you'd expect, but not exceptionally so)
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    Reds have been woeful the past decade in 2b's vs the league, up that number and you don't lean on the HR as much,

  4. #3
    6 months of heartbreak Bob Borkowski's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post

    So I'm curious what RedsZone's instincts are on this front. Without looking, what do you think the NL average is in terms of percentage of base hits that go for extra bases.
    Bringing this to the top.

    I'd to find out what the 'instincts' are from more Zoners on this one.

    I have a feeling that my estimate might be a little low.

  5. #4
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    Meant to vote 30-34%.

  6. #5
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    One of the basic underpinnings of the bunting strategy is the manager's mental calculus regarding the likelihood of of the subsequent batters driving in the run from his current base.

    I have a theory. I think most managers over-estimate the relative likelihood of a single compared to an extra-base hit and thus over-value having a runner on 2B instead of 1B (and thus under-estimate the cost associated with giving up an out to increase the likelihood of him getting him there)

    So I'm curious what RedsZone's instincts are on this front. Without looking, what do you think the NL average is in terms of percentage of base hits that go for extra bases.

    (note: I looked at all NL players with 50+ RBI as a rough cut for guys expected to be "run producers" and the proportion of XBH is higher, as you'd expect, but not exceptionally so)
    I'll guess 36.4% of hits go for extra bases.

  7. #6
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    I wonder if it's even higher if you looked at hits vs relievers. If so, that might be relevant since we're usually talking about late game situations.

  8. #7
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    Rick to me this is a loaded question. First of all to me there are two types of extra base hits. One is a ball that is hit hard and makes its way to the wall. A hard hit ground ball or a gapper that in most cases will score a runner from 1st, especially if the ball isn't to LF. The second kind is luck, a bloop down the line that takes an odd bounce, a squibber down the line that eludes a 1b or 3b positioned off the bag.

    Two more big aspects to consider are ball park size as well as defensive positioning. It would be interesting to see if extra base hit numbers (sans HR's) are suppressed in the later innings of ball games. If you pull your corner infielders a step closer to the line and move the outfielders a couple of steps deeper your going to eliminate many extra base hits.

    As for a the number I would guess between 1/4 and 1/3 of all hits go for more than one base.

  9. #8
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    25.5% of hits in 1968 were EBH

    34% of hits in 1999 were EBH

  10. #9
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    If you google the question, this thread comes up third on the list of results.

    (I already voted before I started looking up the answer).
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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  12. #10
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    I'd say 30% to 35%.
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  13. #11
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    So the correct answer this year is 32%. That was higher than I would have estimated.

    The takeaway, for me, is that if you're placing a lot of value on the the guy being driven in with a hit, you shouldn't be assuming that 2B is more or less an automatic score on a hit while discounting the possibility of scoring from 1B. Maybe when managers talk about their decisions to sacrifice they're just simplifying for the purpose of conversation, but the reliability with which they do it suggests to me that they've internalized these likelihoods incorrectly.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #12
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    Just out of curiosity, what's the percentage of runners on 1B who score on a double? I'd look it up myself, but I'm not to sure where to find that info.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  15. #13
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    Which leave XBH only occurring 7.2% of at bats.

    On the flip side singles are still 68% of all hits. I think those numbers would not sway someone from their bunting tactics if that was their chosen method.

  16. #14
    Member powersackers's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498 View Post
    Just out of curiosity, what's the percentage of runners on 1B who score on a double? I'd look it up myself, but I'm not to sure where to find that info.
    Well the liklihood of scoring from first on a single is zero. From second is probably greater than 70%. Match that up with the xbh % liklihood and bunting still seems pretty logical.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  17. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Quick Poll: Extra Base Hit Frequency

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    Which leave XBH only occurring 7.2% of at bats.

    On the flip side singles are still 68% of all hits. I think those numbers would not sway someone from their bunting tactics if that was their chosen method.
    On the flip side, what percentage of at bats are singles? At least stick to apples:apples comparisons.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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