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Thread: So Hamilton is electric

  1. #151
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Anyone have any info or know where to get the following:

    Win expectancy of runner on 2nd w 1/out vs runner on 2nd w/out in a tie game, down 1 run, up 1 run?

    Trying to wrap around some sort of value Hamilton adds as a pinch runner.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  3. #152
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofStLouis View Post
    I agree with the premise that you usually ride your starters as long as possible, and that teams will use 12 or 13 pitchers, the rest position players. You need a long man (usually the 5th starter), at least 1 extra catcher, a utility IFer and a loogy.

    Assuming that the Reds wouldn't use Hamilton as the only extra OFer (I was told he's never played left or right), who that was on the team on August 31 doesn't make the cut ?
    For my money, you use your best weapons. I'd have Hamilton on the roster and I'd also go with 12 pitchers assuming Marshall and Cueto are healthy. The guys I don't want on the roster are the interchangeable parts who probably wouldn't get in a game anyway. Jack Hannahan would be my choice as the guy to sit the series out. Heisey and Paul would be pinch hitters. Izturis is the extra infielder who could play any spot in the event a guy is needed to play defense. Mesoraco/Hanigan would occupy a spot as the extra catcher and Hamilton would be on the bench as an offensive weapon for late in the game. Hannahan can't really hit anyway and offers little more as a PH than Hamilton would if he's pressed into it. Over a long season, a guy like Hannahan and his ability to play 3B as a spot player who hits lefty is useful to rest the starter against a tough RH pitcher, but he won't see action in the play-offs unless it's a disaster. Hamilton is much more likely to have an impact on the outcome of a game than Hannahan would. A Heisey, Paul, Izturis, Hanigan and Hamilton bench with 8 starters and 12 pitchers would be my roster.

    As for my staff Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani, Cueto, Chapman, Marshall, Hoover, Lecure, Parra and Duke would be the guys. If one of Marshall or Cueto couldn't go I'd add Simon. If neither could go, I'd add Simon and drop to 11 and use Hannahan on the bench. After that, if there is another injury, I'd probably go to Curtis Partch as another arm.

    It would take a multi-player injury/plane crash before I'd add Ondrusek, Soto, H-Rod or any of the others.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-10-2013 at 05:34 AM.
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  5. #153
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    For my money, you use your best weapons. I'd have Hamilton on the roster and I'd also go with 12 pitchers assuming Marshall and Cueto are healthy. The guys I don't want on the roster are the interchangeable parts who probably wouldn't get in a game anyway. Jack Hannahan would be my choice as the guy to sit the series out. Heisey and Paul would be pinch hitters. Izturis is the extra infielder who could play any spot in the event a guy is needed to play defense. Mesoraco/Hanigan would occupy a spot as the extra catcher and Hamilton would be on the bench as an offensive weapon for late in the game. Hannahan can't really hit anyway and offers little more as a PH than Hamilton would if he's pressed into it. Over a long season, a guy like Hannahan and his ability to play 3B as a spot player who hits lefty is useful to rest the starter against a tough RH pitcher, but he won't see action in the play-offs unless it's a disaster. Hamilton is much more likely to have an impact on the outcome of a game than Hannahan would. A Heisey, Paul, Izturis, Hanigan and Hamilton bench with 8 starters and 12 pitchers would be my roster.

    As for my staff Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani, Cueto, Chapman, Marshall, Hoover, Lecure, Parra and Duke would be the guys. If one of Marshall or Cueto couldn't go I'd add Simon. If neither could go, I'd add Simon and drop to 11 and use Hannahan on the bench. After that, if there is another injury, I'd probably go to Curtis Partch as another arm.

    It would take a multi-player injury/plane crash before I'd add Ondrusek, Soto, H-Rod or any of the others.
    That's pretty much how I'd do it too. I started going into the roster decisions when Mo Egger was going on and on in the pregame show last night about not needing Hamilton on the postseason roster. Someone called in to ask who Mo is taking instead of Hamilton, and he danced around the question without answering it.

    I went back and looked at the 1990 team. Billy Bates had a total of 1 plate appearance in the NLCS and WS. He had a career total of 58 plate appearances over a couple seasons. Mo kept going on and on about Hamilton having no experience at the plate against MLB pitchers...but Billy Bates didn't either.
    Last edited by OesterPoster; 09-10-2013 at 12:15 PM.

  6. #154
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofStLouis View Post
    I agree with the premise that you usually ride your starters as long as possible, and that teams will use 12 or 13 pitchers, the rest position players.
    I can't remember the last time a team carried 13 pitchers in a postseason series. Maybe it's happened in the AL. Recent World Series rosters show a pretty even split between teams carrying 11 or 12 pitchers. More innings are high leverage and relievers get more breaks due to the travel days, so managers ride their best horses harder and don't get to the back of the bullpen as much.

    But mostly, we're pretty sure the Reds will carry 11 pitchers because that's what they usually do.
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  7. #155
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    I can't remember the last time a team carried 13 pitchers in a postseason series. Maybe it's happened in the AL. Recent World Series rosters show a pretty even split between teams carrying 11 or 12 pitchers. More innings are high leverage and relievers get more breaks due to the travel days, so managers ride their best horses harder and don't get to the back of the bullpen as much.

    But mostly, we're pretty sure the Reds will carry 11 pitchers because that's what they usually do.
    The last time I remember 13 pitchers in the postseason was when Don Baylor was managing the Rockies. I can't even remember the year, but it was really odd, as most clubs only carried 11 pitchers then.
    He was pretty soundly criticized for it, although I can't remember if the short bench came back to bite him or not.

    Another thing to think about.. Is Zach Duke the real thing? Because he might be worth carrying, just as an extra lefty to throw at the Cards. I'm not being pessemistic, but let's assume Marshall is not healthy for the postseason.. Do you consider adding Duke?
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  8. #156
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    If everyone's not aware of it yet, there are days off after the last day of the regular season, after the WC game, after the first 2 games of the DS, and after the 2nd 2 games of the DS. And I'm pretty sure you get to reset the roster after the WC game. Of course, a tie-breaker game or a rainout could mess up the schedule, but even 11 pitchers seems almost excessive, as long as one of them is the 5th starter and he's a good pitcher.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  9. #157
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofStLouis View Post
    I agree with the premise that you usually ride your starters as long as possible, and that teams will use 12 or 13 pitchers, the rest position players. You need a long man (usually the 5th starter), at least 1 extra catcher, a utility IFer and a loogy.

    Assuming that the Reds wouldn't use Hamilton as the only extra OFer (I was told he's never played left or right), who that was on the team on August 31 doesn't make the cut ?
    My roster goes like this:

    Starters: Votto, BP, Cozart, Frazier, Hanigan, Ludwick, Choo, Bruce (8)
    SP: Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, choice of Cingrani or Leake (4)
    Bench: Mez, Heisey, Paul, Izturis, Hannahan (5)
    Relievers: Chapman, Hoover, LeCure, Parra, Simon, Cingrani or Leake, one of Duke/Marshall/Cueto (7)

    That's 24. There is no way someone can convince me that the 25th player should be another reliever instead of Hamilton.

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  11. #158
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by OesterPoster View Post
    My roster goes like this:

    Starters: Votto, BP, Cozart, Frazier, Hanigan, Ludwick, Choo, Bruce (8)
    SP: Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, choice of Cingrani or Leake (4)
    Bench: Mez, Heisey, Paul, Izturis, Hannahan (5)
    Relievers: Chapman, Hoover, LeCure, Parra, Simon, Cingrani or Leake, one of Duke/Marshall/Cueto (7)

    That's 24. There is no way someone can convince me that the 25th player should be another reliever instead of Hamilton.
    It's a hard choice for me if one of Cueto/Marshall is healthy.

    The Cards struggle with LH pitching so much, that Duke coming in to get one key out might have as much impact as Billy H pinch running (which could also be huge). Not sure how much the extra LH arm helps us against other teams though.

    I do want both Cingrani and Leake on the postseason roster though, I think that was a good lesson from last year.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  13. #159
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    The last time I remember 13 pitchers in the postseason was when Don Baylor was managing the Rockies. I can't even remember the year, but it was really odd, as most clubs only carried 11 pitchers then.
    He was pretty soundly criticized for it, although I can't remember if the short bench came back to bite him or not.

    Another thing to think about.. Is Zach Duke the real thing? Because he might be worth carrying, just as an extra lefty to throw at the Cards. I'm not being pessemistic, but let's assume Marshall is not healthy for the postseason.. Do you consider adding Duke?
    Your Duke question makes me very nervous. Duke has been amazing since he came over. And, that couldn't be more different from his shakiness in DC that preceded it. Really tough to guess what he'd do in a postseason.
    Reds & Nats, 2013 LCS. Take2 (9/13) Reds but no Nats

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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Heard that same thing about Willy Taveras. He didn't get on first enough for it to matter though.
    The infamous "In scoring position percentage". Good times.
    A summer watching a bad Reds' team, is still a pretty good summer.

  15. #161
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by 1940757690 View Post
    Your Duke question makes me very nervous. Duke has been amazing since he came over. And, that couldn't be more different from his shakiness in DC that preceded it. Really tough to guess what he'd do in a postseason.
    Perhaps what Price did for Parra he also did for Duke.
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  17. #162
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by OesterPoster View Post
    My roster goes like this:

    Starters: Votto, BP, Cozart, Frazier, Hanigan, Ludwick, Choo, Bruce (8)
    SP: Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, choice of Cingrani or Leake (4)
    Bench: Mez, Heisey, Paul, Izturis, Hannahan (5)
    Relievers: Chapman, Hoover, LeCure, Parra, Simon, Cingrani or Leake, one of Duke/Marshall/Cueto (7)

    That's 24. There is no way someone can convince me that the 25th player should be another reliever instead of Hamilton.
    What if Marshall and Cueto both prove to be healthy by October 1st?
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  18. #163
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    What if Marshall and Cueto both prove to be healthy by October 1st?
    I don't know. What if you need Marshall to pitch on back-to-back days? Could he even do it? I don't know if Cueto in the bullpen is all that helpful, since he's never done it.

  19. #164
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    Re: So Hamilton is electric

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    It's a hard choice for me if one of Cueto/Marshall is healthy.

    The Cards struggle with LH pitching so much, that Duke coming in to get one key out might have as much impact as Billy H pinch running (which could also be huge). Not sure how much the extra LH arm helps us against other teams though.

    I do want both Cingrani and Leake on the postseason roster though, I think that was a good lesson from last year.
    The Pirates are a team that would justify a 2nd lefty, besides Chapman, but 2 loogys are SOP in the playoffs.
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