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Thread: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

  1. #61
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Yes, he's got a bunch more stolen bases...but were they valuable? Not that I can tell. He hasn't scored any more runs than Miggy, even with the thefts, hitting first, having more ab's, etc. I like the stolen base more than most, but I think this part is getting too much weight in the formula IMO. Especially when it doesn't lead to something. If we can calculate when the stolen base equates to a run and THEN figure it in...that would be an improvement imo.
    Runs scored is still a function of who is hitting behind you. The stat calculates an estimate of how many runs trout creates as a result of his stellar baser inning, and its not limited to just steals.


    Just using the eye test, I agree with you that Trout is the much better defender. So why is his defensive WAR negative? As for Miggy, he's below average over there, but he's not a butcher either IMO. Not to mention that it's not even his natural position. He moved to benefit the team and allow a place for Prince to play. And again, I think this part is factored too heavily in WAR. And this is coming from a defensive freak. :O)
    Not sure where you're seeing his defensive WAR as negative. Fan graphs has him at 5.7 runs above average. And I will disagree on Cabrera not being a butcher. He's awful at 3rd. Fan graphs has him at 16 runs below average.

    Thanks guys for the feedback. I was hoping that your decisions weren't just WAR, WAR and more WAR. I think it's a useful stat, but not good enough to define one player as better than another. I need more.
    I'll say what many often say on this board about WAR. Look at the components individually, and it paints a much better picture of how a player got to his particular WAR. The Trout Cabrera debate has been stated pretty simply by those that support Trout. Cabrera is a slightly better hitter. He is better, no doubt. It's close, but not THAT close. Trout is infinitely better on the bases. Infinitely better in the field. Also plays a more difficult position. Many of us believe that the entire package shows that Trout is more valuable.

    Cabrera the better hitter, Trout the more valuable player.

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  3. #62
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    ESPN's fielding stats. DWAR. And my comments about Miggy's defense are from watching him. Not stats. IMO he's a butcher as much as Choo is in center. In other words...he's not.
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  5. #63
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    ESPN's fielding stats. DWAR. And my comments about Miggy's defense are from watching him. Not stats. IMO he's a butcher as much as Choo is in center. In other words...he's not.
    I'll admit to not knowing anything about espn defensive stats. I've never seen them cited before.

    And Choo is pretty bad in center. Says my eyes, and the numbers.

    Truth is the defensive stats factor in every play. Your eyes, from a television screen, can't possibly factor in everything that the defensive numbers do. Especially because none of us sees every play.

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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    It's always been a award given to the hitter who had the best counting stats-BA, HR, RBI. Most of the time it's given to sluggers, unless there's a player who really stands out with a stellar BA. There have been occasions where a player has won due to speed and defense, but it isn't very frequent. The last player to win it who might have been a Trout comp was Jimmy Rollins. He did stand out with 20 triples that year. You'll also see pitchers occasionally win it if they have a really standout season. I won't really say much about WAR except I don't think its considered in the voting, and it may not be considered for some time to come.

  7. #65
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And I will continue to ask the same question over and over, how is it possible for someone to be the best player, but have someone else provide more value? You can't be the best, if someone else is better. The logic that is used is mind numbing.

    You are right that people have been doing it for a long time. That doesn't mean it should continue happening.
    You need to embrace a business approach to the question. In that world, someone's value is often directly correlated to the success as the business as a whole. The guy at Apple developing great products is valued more than the guy at Motorolla doing similar work.

    Trout's greatness last year didn't impact his organization one bit in the standings. And it hasn't again this year. There's no difference between him being out there and the next guy on the WAR ladder when it comes to the only results that matter. If and when he helps get the Angels in the playoffs (or when his numbers clearly surpass Cabrera) we have a much more interesting discussion.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  8. #66
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Just out of curiosity, what would Cabrera's WAR be if he was still playing 1B, at his career average playing 1B?
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  9. #67
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    You need to embrace a business approach to the question. In that world, someone's value is often directly correlated to the success as the business as a whole. The guy at Apple developing great products is valued more than the guy at Motorolla doing similar work.

    Trout's greatness last year didn't impact his organization one bit in the standings. And it hasn't again this year. There's no difference between him being out there and the next guy on the WAR ladder when it comes to the only results that matter. If and when he helps get the Angels in the playoffs (or when his numbers clearly surpass Cabrera) we have a much more interesting discussion.
    Exactly. The goal of playing Major League Baseball is to win the World Series. If you don't make the playoffs, you can't win the World Series. If your team doesn't make the playoffs, whatever you do has very limited value to the goal of playing the games.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  11. #68
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Based on pure hitting, Cabrera has a 196 OPS+ (my favorite offensive stat since it attempts to normalize your playing environments throughout the season) compared to Trout having a 183 OPS+.

    Cabrera ranks first, Trout ranks 2nd. The gap here is decently sized.

    Bat goes to Cabrera.

    Based on pure base running, Trout has 32 steals (7 CS) and Miguel Cabrera has 3 steals (0 CS). Let's also add in that Trout is very, very, very, very likely to be adding a significant amount of value in just base running when he doesn't steal given his elite speed, while Cabrera is probably a bit of a negative base runner given his complete lack of speed.

    Fangraphs says the difference between the two guys in "base running" is 10 runs, or roughly one win. That passes my sniff test. The gap here is huge, even if you don't want to rely on the FG values, I don't think anyone would actually argue that there isn't a huge gap in production between the two players here.

    Base running goes to Trout.

    Based on pure fielding, we have Mike Trout as an above-average defender in both left field and in center field. You can attach numbers to it if you choose, or you can just say he is darn good in the outfield. Miguel Cabrera on the other hand is a well below average fielder at his position. Again, you can attach numbers if you want to, or you can just say he isn't good.

    There is a huge gap here and if you wanted to use numbers you can, but I don't think anyone would argue that Trout has a huge advantage in pure defensive abilities over Cabrera when compared to their positional counterparts on defense.

    Fielding goes to Trout.

    Then the last thing I would add is the positional scarcity. I am sure some won't put much into this, but I do. It is a lot tougher to find guys to play center than it is to play third. That also gets Trout a boost in his value.

    Positional adjustment goes to Trout.

    The argument comes down to just how much weight you place directly on the bat versus the entire package of a player. In this specific case, I am of the belief that Mike Trout's non-bat production makes up more than enough to overcome the decent advantage that Miguel Cabrera has with the bat-production.
    I like this....but the positional scarcity I don't really see.

    To just keeping it real simple.

    Using OPS+ and giving Miggy an advantage but Trout pretty well evens it out with his defense and base running and the Tigers making the playoffs is my tie breaker. If the Angels made it....I'd probably keep crunching numbers and have Trout winning.

    So basically....I only like the postseason thing as a tie breaker or a slight additional advantage.

  12. #69
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Exactly. The goal of playing Major League Baseball is to win the World Series. If you don't make the playoffs, you can't win the World Series. If your team doesn't make the playoffs, whatever you do has very limited value to the goal of playing the games.
    You do realize you are giving a player credit for what his teammates do and what the other teams in his division do rather than what the player himself does, right?

    That is where I just can't figure out how to wrap my head around it. The award in the most valuable player. It isn't the most valuable player who also had teammates good enough to win more games than the other teams in his division won or at least more games than other second place teams in the league so they could get a wild card award.

    Last year was a perfect example of that. Trout and the Angels won more games than the Tigers did, but the Tigers made the playoffs and the Angels didn't. Somehow, winning more games wasn't as valuable because Cabrera played in an easier division and made the playoffs.

    End of the day, it is simple for me. Judge the player himself. Don't judge him, his team and the other teams in the division he plays in. He has no control over those things. He can only control what he does when he steps to the plate, when he gets on the bases and when the ball is hit in his general direction. He doesn't pick his teammates. He doesn't always get to pick his team or division.

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  14. #70
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You do realize you are giving a player credit for what his teammates do and what the other teams in his division do rather than what the player himself does, right?

    That is where I just can't figure out how to wrap my head around it. The award in the most valuable player. It isn't the most valuable player who also had teammates good enough to win more games than the other teams in his division won or at least more games than other second place teams in the league so they could get a wild card award.

    Last year was a perfect example of that. Trout and the Angels won more games than the Tigers did, but the Tigers made the playoffs and the Angels didn't. Somehow, winning more games wasn't as valuable because Cabrera played in an easier division and made the playoffs.

    End of the day, it is simple for me. Judge the player himself. Don't judge him, his team and the other teams in the division he plays in. He has no control over those things. He can only control what he does when he steps to the plate, when he gets on the bases and when the ball is hit in his general direction. He doesn't pick his teammates. He doesn't always get to pick his team or division.
    I absolutely realize that.

    No one ever said life was fair... at least no one ever said it to me.
    Last edited by 757690; 09-11-2013 at 12:15 AM.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  16. #71
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Even Ken Rosenthal, who was a Trout supporter last year and maybe even this, recognizes that numbers put up in a pennant race are more valuable than those put up in games that mean absolutely nothing.

    From today's blog:

    Here we go again. Just like last season, the Angels’ Mike Trout is the best player, the Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera the best hitter. Except this time, there are two differences.

    First, the Angels are out of contention, as opposed to a year ago, when they won 89 games. And second, Trout — at least to this point — is finishing stronger, in part due to Cabrera’s lingering physical issues.

    I was a Trout guy last year, but generally I prefer my MVP to contribute to a winning effort. Yes, the criteria states that the winner “need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.” But playing for a contender involves a different kind of pressure. And the Angels were cooked by June.

    That said, I clearly see the other side — why should voters penalize Trout for owner Arte Moreno’s misguided decision-making? I’m also starting to wonder: If Trout again finishes second, what exactly will he need to do to win the award?

    Cabrera is the favorite because of his remarkable offensive performance and the Tigers’ first-place standing. But I’m finding it more and more difficult to mount a case against Trout.

  17. #72
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    The above posts hit on a theory I have mentioned before.

    What value (to your team) does anything have if your team loses?

    If Jay Bruce hits 4 home runs and the Reds lose, how valuable are they to the club? (A clubs goal is to win games)

  18. #73
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    The above posts hit on a theory I have mentioned before.

    What value (to your team) does anything have if your team loses?

    If Jay Bruce hits 4 home runs and the Reds lose, how valuable are they to the club? (A clubs goal is to win games)
    You rise a good point. Maybe we should only be counting stats that were accrued during games the team won.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  19. #74
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    You rise a good point. Maybe we should only be counting stats that were accrued during games the team won.
    Well, that's kind of the premise behind WPA.
    Chris Davis is the current leader in the AL and Goldschmidt in the NL.

    (Of course, that's just hitting).

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0
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  20. #75
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Well, that's kind of the premise behind WPA.
    Chris Davis is the current leader in the AL and Goldschmidt in the NL.

    (Of course, that's just hitting).

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0
    However doesn't WPA accrue during losses?

    This theory may be totally off the mark.

    But how many times in a game thread, have we heard "and the Reds wasted another great pitching performance by ______".

    If Latos pitches 9 shutout innings but Ondrusek blows the game in the 10th...what value did Latos performance truly have other than eating 9 innings. It was nice, but it was for naught ----> so was it valuable?

    Now again, this is only discussing value to the team. As far as say the Cy Young is concerned, those stats should help his case.

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