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Thread: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

  1. #211
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So you think hitting in GABP should be compared directly to hitting in Petco or Busch without any kind of adjustment? OPS+ simply makes that adjustment for us. Unless you just flat out don't believe there is a difference, in which case don't ever open an email about how you won the British lottery or how an African prince needs your help to recover lost funds.
    Of course there should be adjustments; I just disagree with how they make the adjustments. I'm pretty sure you posted a link to Park Factors in a thread some time back. In 2005 Yankee Stadium was 1.403, the No. 1 hitter's park. The next season it was 28th at .877. That's ridiculous. If you examine that stat over a period of years there are similar swings at most other parks.

    There are pitcher's parks that are always pitcher's parks. There are hitter's parks that are always hitter's parks. There are parks that are in the middle. They don't change from hitter's parks to pitcher's parks and go up and down the list from year to year depending on runs scored, etc.

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  3. #212
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    Of course there should be adjustments; I just disagree with how they make the adjustments. I'm pretty sure you posted a link to Park Factors in a thread some time back. In 2005 Yankee Stadium was 1.403, the No. 1 hitter's park. The next season it was 28th at .877. That's ridiculous. If you examine that stat over a period of years there are similar swings at most other parks.

    There are pitcher's parks that are always pitcher's parks. There are hitter's parks that are always hitter's parks. There are parks that are in the middle. They don't change from hitter's parks to pitcher's parks and go up and down the list from year to year depending on runs scored, etc.
    Actually, they can. Winds changing. Colder weather/warmer weather. More day games/more night games. Those things matter and they make differences.

  4. #213
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So you think hitting in GABP should be compared directly to hitting in Petco or Busch without any kind of adjustment? OPS+ simply makes that adjustment for us. Unless you just flat out don't believe there is a difference, in which case don't ever open an email about how you won the British lottery or how an African prince needs your help to recover lost funds.
    Depends. Too many variables. Do I get to Clayton Kershaw in GABP or Edinson Volquez in Petco?
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  5. #214
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    I think the extra base hits are going to be a big factor this year. Cabrera has had his doubles drop from 40 to 26, Trout has had his doubles increase from 26 to 39. Trout is actually ahead of Cabrera in extra base hits this year. I expect that might swing some votes from Cabrera to Trout this year.

    That and the RBI. I know I'm beginning to sound like a broken record on this, but Trout has increased his RBI from 83 to 92. i really think it's a big deal for a player to get his RBI over the 90+ level if they're going to win the MVP. A slight drop from last year in HR from 30 to 26 is a slight concern, but I still think the combination of those two factors will be a positive factor in Trout finishing ahead of Cabreara for the AL MVP this year.

  6. #215
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Actually, they can. Winds changing. Colder weather/warmer weather. More day games/more night games. Those things matter and they make differences.
    Not that much. There is no amount of wind and warm/cold weather that can turn Yankee Stadium from the top hitter's park one year to second-to-last the next year. The same thing has happened at Dodger Stadium as well. To what do you attribute that, the Santa Ana Winds or El Nino?

    How about the Trop? It went from 11th one year to 26th the next. Did they have the AC on 72 degrees one year and 60 the next? Did they change light bulbs or something?

  7. #216
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    2) Winning matters in this award. Always has. It's a fair debate to ask whether that should be the case, but it is. The Angels are where they are two years in a row with or without him. All these new metrics supposedly tout value and this concept of a replacement. The Angels would be in the same exact spot with his replacement.
    That's fine. And, yes, there is historical precedent. But the award criteria themselves make it very clear that "value" is "strength of offense and defense". The team-level, playoff piece is an addition not intrinsic to the spirit of the award itself.

    (1) actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense;
    (2) number of games played;
    (3) general character, disposition, loyalty and effort;
    (4) former winners are eligible; and
    (5) members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.
    3) Don't let the semantics bother you on that one. It wasn't intended to say he should get extra credit for being the 2012 member. Just acknowledging that it's the same debate, new year.
    I'll take you on word there. The wording made it sound like you were giving Cabrera the benefit of the doubt due to having "won" the debate last year. Obviously I see no reason to to do that. It's like citing MVP awards in a Hall of Fame, allowing past mistakes to drive future ones.

    You and I won't likely come to common ground if you say "Lastly, Mike Trout has been drastically better than Miguel Cabrera..." And we're not just talking about the old standbys AVG-HR-RBI. He's far ahead in those, he's roughly equivalent in runs scored, and he leads in OBP and SLG, and of course, OPS. The only thing you can point to that suggests a "drastic" edge for Trout is SB and defense, which remain difficult to quantify in terms of value or wins. And that's the component that those of us who don't worship at the altar of WAR have a big problem with.
    I wouldn't lump together SB and defense. We can quantify the value of baserunning very reliably. It's extremely straight-forward stuff. I think the defensive piece is actually a bit of a red herring. Sure, there's debate over the exact number of runs to credit each guy, but I don't think you'd find a single person make the case that Cabrera is more valuable or prevented more runs defensively than Trout. Let's not use any runs and just call it a tie-breaker in Trout's direction.

    I think the real point of disagreement is on offense. Here's how Fangraphs has them. This is runs vs. average:
    Code:
    	Batting	Base Running	Total
    Trout	60.0	 8.1		68.1
    Cabrera	68.1	-4.3		63.8
    Cabrera is 8 runs better than Trout as a hitter, but 12 runs worse as a base-runner.

    People generally will accept that the math behind the offensive numbers is solid -- unless you're an RBI type (I'm fine adjusting for exceptional situational performance, but not for having more productive teammates). Cabrera does get on base more (if you ignore reaching base on error -- even those ROE is highly correlated with speed) and does hit for more power. And that is reflected in his edge as a batter. There's no debate he does more the plate. Trout does play in a tougher park, which helps him a little bit.

    But at the end of the day, all you need to accept is the basic premise that Cabrera's edge as a hitter is not crazy huge. And that Trout's significant edge as a baserunner make offsets the gap between them at the plate. Add the defensive tie-breaker, and there's your MVP case for Trout.

    If you still want to factor in team wins/ playoffs, fine. I think it's silly to base a single player award on the quality of his teammates, but I know I won't convince you and many others of that. But really, I'd just be happy with an acceptance that even using conservative measures, Trout is at worst Cabrera's equal on the field. After that, we can debate the rest.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  9. #217
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    I don't know if I'd label myself an "RBI type," but I do still believe there's a certain degree of skill/mindset associated with driving runs in.

    I'll grant you they're almost equal... and I think it's only a matter of time before Trout has his MVP.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  10. #218
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    There's nothing an individual player can do ...
    And when that's the case he shouldn't be the MVP.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #219
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    1. McCutchen
    2. Goldschmidt
    3. Molina
    4. Carpenter
    5. Freeman
    6. Votto
    7. Kershaw
    8. Bruce
    9. Tulo
    10. Phillips

    1. Cabrera
    2. Trout
    3. Davis
    4. Ortiz

    My guess on how it ends up after voting

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  13. #220
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    I think McCutchen has almost wrapped it up in NL. The feel-good angle of the Pirates' story will give him a boost.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  14. #221
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Just some more rare stuff that Mike Trout is doing:

    Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout has become only the third major league player since 1900 with 190 hits, 100 walks and 30 stolen bases in the same season.

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  16. #222
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/...-award-winners

    AL MVP: 1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers; 2. Mike Trout, Angels; 3. Chris Davis, Orioles; 4. Josh Donaldson, Athletics; 5. Robinson Cano, Yankees; 6. Manny Machado, Orioles; 7. Adrian Beltre, Rangers; 8. David Ortiz, Red Sox; 9. Evan Longoria, Rays; 10. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox.
    NL MVP: 1. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates; 2. Matt Carpenter, Cardinals; 3. Yadier Molina, Cardinals; 4. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers; 5. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks; 6. Freddie Freeman, Braves; 7. Jay Bruce, Reds; 8. Shin-Soo Choo, Reds; 9. Andrelton Simmons, Braves; 10. Carlos Gomez, Brewers.
    *Bruce instead of Votto even if Bruce's OPS is barely over .800?

    *Molina missed as many as 26 games.

    *Andrelton Simmons(.248/.296/.396/.692)?

    *Freeman over Votto and Choo?
    Votto: .400wOBA, 156wRC+, 6.5WAR
    Choo: .393wOBA, 151wRC+, 5.2WAR
    Freeman: .387wOBA, 150wRC+, 4.8WAR

    And no, I didn't forget Joey Votto. His defense at first base inexplicably slipped this season and Reds people will tell you Bruce and Choo were every bit as valuable, if not moreso.
    I disagree with this.

  17. #223
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/...-award-winners





    *Bruce instead of Votto even if Bruce's OPS is barely over .800?

    *Molina missed as many as 26 games.

    *Andrelton Simmons(.248/.296/.396/.692)?

    *Freeman over Votto and Choo?
    Votto: .400wOBA, 156wRC+, 6.5WAR
    Choo: .393wOBA, 151wRC+, 5.2WAR
    Freeman: .387wOBA, 150wRC+, 4.8WAR


    I disagree with this.
    One writer's opinion. He may or may not vote for MVP.

    Doug, who were the other 2 players?

  18. #224
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    I remember someone mentioned top 5 OPS were likely the leading MVP candidates.

    AL:

    1. Cabrera-1.078
    2. Davis-1.004
    3. Trout- .988
    4.Ortiz- .959
    5. Encarcion-.904

    NL:

    1. Goldschmidt- .952
    2. Tulowitzki- .931
    3. Werth- .931
    4. Votto- .926
    5. Cuddyer- .919

    I think that's enough till they announce the winners.

  19. #225
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Joe Posnanski on MLB Award Voting. He tweeted out the link with this line: When I was growing up, there were 4 tenets for baseball award voting. I pretty firmly disagree with all 4.

    From the article:

    1. “Most valuable “means something other than “best.”
    2. The best pitchers win the most games.
    3. The best managers had lousy teams last year.
    4. Always remember this about good players on bad teams: “We could have finishes last without ya.”

    Point 1 I disagree with: “Most valuable” means something other than “best.”
    No, actually, I think “most valuable” and “best” are just about perfect baseball synonyms. The most valuable player is the best player. The best player is the most valuable one. Sure, I have read countless times about “valuable” being a magical word imbued with intangibles and leadership qualities and heart and grit and all sorts of other things that “best” simply does not cover. I believed them too. Heck, in my early days as a columnist, I probably even wrote some of those columns. I don’t buy it now.
    Go read the entire article. Joe is the best writer in baseball.

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