Please get rid of your obsession over WAR.
WAR seems to underrate great defensive catchers (NL MVP candidate Yadier Molina's WAR is 5.0), as even the stat guys will admit. The problem with WAR and catchers apparently is the range factor, which leads to an under-grading of some catchers. But is it possible the range factor leads to an over-grading of some center fielders, as well? WAR requires personal judgments, and may need some refining. Check out the WAR of Carlos Gomez (6.7, fifth best in baseball) and Gerardo Parra (5.1, tied for 20th best). Now it's possible they are indeed the fifth- and 20th-best players in baseball this year. But I doubt it. According to these figures, Parra is tied with Adrian Beltre and ahead of a plethora of other stars despite his mundane .725 OPS, and Gomez (.832 OPS) is ahead of everyone but Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Cabrera and Robinson Cano -- and he's barely behind Cabrera and Cano at that.Even within the center-field ranks, WAR looks pretty suspect. Shin-Soo Choo, who has helped make the Reds go with his second-in-the-NL .425 on-base percentage, has a 3.7 WAR. One spot ahead of Choo is Mets rookie Juan Lagares, at 3.8.
Now Lagares is pretty terrific defensively in center field while Choo is merely adequate (though with a great arm). But Lagares' OPS is exactly 200 points lower than Choo's (.696 to .896) and Lagares has come to the plate almost 300 times less, which matters since WAR is a cumulative stat. Lagares has just 324 at-bats and 15 walks, Choo 516 at-bats and 97 walks.
So with barely more than half the plate appearances, Lagares has managed to contribute more than Choo. At least if you believe WAR, he has.
Cabrera's the easy choice in AL.
I think NL may be determined this month. Too hard to call right now.
Rounding third and heading for home...
AL - Cabrera
NL - Y. Molina
Please don't throw stones.
If I was picking, Trout in the AL, McCutchen in the NL.
Who I think will win, Cabrera in the AL and McCutchen in the NL.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
I've said it many times on here. If they want to change it to best player, they should rename it Most Outstanding Player like NCAA basketball did. Until then, I think the overwhelming majority of the voters will continue to interpret "valuable" as being linked to team success.
Just curious. For those of you who are picking Mike Trout over Miguel Cabrera....what are your reasons? Could you guys show me what factors are pushing you to Trout over Miggy? Is it just WAR?
Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!
"Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."
Yes, he has more 2b & 3b. But what about RC? Runs scored? Total bases? Not to mention that his counting stats have been boosted by more plate appearaces. I'm not trying to belittle Trout, but outside of one stat (WAR) I simply don't see them as being even REMOTELY close.
Last year I could see it because the difference in things like RC and runs scored and the huge difference in defensive WAR. Those things just aren't true this year. The things that supposedly give Trout the edge...are neck and neck. So for me it goes back to the slash lines and counting stats. And those are hugely in Cabrera's favor.
.353/.446/.667/1.113 43 hr / 133 rbi / 331 tb / 96 r / 69 xbh / 86 k
.338/.437/.572/1.009 23 hr / 84 rbi / 303 tb / 96 r / 69 xbh / 115 k
I just see some of the enhanced stats as flawed. The biggest edge WAR gives Trout is on the basepaths. Yet he hasn't scored more runs even in more plate appearances? So how effective are those SB's? So maybe he's created more runs by his prowess on the basepaths? Nope. Edge to Miggy. He's scored more runs per game, he's knocked in more runs by a wide margin....how are the RC numbers even close? How about the defense. We all know that Cabrera is a poor 3bman, DWAR has him at -1.4. But guess what, Trout is at a -0.9 too. Sorry, I'm just not seeing it or buying it. Flawed stats.
Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 09-10-2013 at 10:04 AM.
Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!
*Carlos Gomez(127 wRC+) over Joey Votto(155), Shin-Soo Choo(153), Matt Carpenter(144), Paul Goldschmidt(148)
*Andrelton Simmons(88) over Jason Kipnis(130), David Ortiz(151), Freddie Freeman(138), Carlos Santana(131), Jay Bruce(120)
*Ian Desmond(123) over Shin-Soo Choo(153), Paul Goldschmidt(148), Buster Posey(144), Yadier Molina(135)
*Manny Machado(108) over Joey Votto(155), Shin-Soo Choo(153), Matt Carpenter(144), Paul Goldschmidt(148), Robinson Cano(139)
*Russel Martin(109) over David Ortiz(151), Edwin Encarnacion(148), Freddie Freeman(138), Jay Bruce(120)
*Denard Span(100) over Allen Craig(134), Matt Holliday(133)
*Shane Victorino(120) over Shin-Soo Choo(153), Paul Goldschmidt(148), Buster Posey(144), Yadier Molina(135)
*Jacoby Ellsbury(111) over Shin-Soo Choo(153), Paul Goldschmidt(148), Buster Posey(144), Robinson Cano(139)
*Gerardo Parra(96) over Freddie Freeman(138), Jay Bruce(120)
The list is endless.
Just too much weight to the defense and baserunning.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.