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Thread: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

  1. #106
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    No one plays in a vacuum. Every single player in MLB is putting up his respective numbers in a given context. Air lift him somewhere else and his performance will change, maybe for the better, maybe for the worse, maybe only a little, maybe a lot.
    I acknowledge that. My basis is this: In performing a retrospective review of performance for the season, if you were to "draft" any one player's performance for your team, who would you take with the number one pick? Who provided the most value BY HIMSELF. That person had the most valuable season in baseball. Therefore, I consider that player to be the Most Valuable Player.

    Beyond that, every team has different needs. For instance, Miggy Cabrera would have a bigger impact on the Yankees than Mike Trout. Trout would have a bigger impact on the Mets. And if I had to guess, Robinson Cano would provide more value to more teams than either of them just because of position scarcity.
    The award, in my opinion, is about who performed the best. Not the incremental value you have over who you would be playing over. If Miguel Cabrera put up this season with the Mets (and Mike Trout did not exist), I would consider him the most valuable player, even if it means that David Wright was rotting on the bench. There is a difference in being the most valuable player in baseball, and providing incremental value to your team.

    If your position is "all I need is WAR" that's your prerogative, but my perspective is that's an awfully narrow band when considering the topic of MVP.
    While that is close to my position, it's not necessarily the case. I don't just read the WAR stat and determine who I think is the most valuable player in baseball. It's a guideline. To my earlier point - let's imagine a retrospective draft. The season has been played, and you get to draft a team, and you can pick any player's season, who would you take? I think that selecting Mike Trout would give me the best chance to win baseball games. I would select him due to his exceptional bat (inferior to Cabrera's but exceptional), his outstanding defense (far superior to Cabrera), his outstanding baserunning (far superior to Cabrera), as well as position scarcity. I do not think Cabrera's superiority with the bat exceeds the value he loses to Trout in the other categories. I don't need the WAR stat to tell me that. There is a lot more to baseball than just being good with the bat (in Cabrera's defense, is beyond good, maybe even beyond "great"). I believe that Trout is the more valuable all around player because of the multiple facets of the game in which he excels.

    The fact that the Angels did not make the playoffs, does not make Trout any less valuable of a player. Yes his season went to "waste" because it didn't result in a playoff appearance for the Angels, but why punish him for his inept team? I believe he still provided the most value as an individual player than any other player in baseball this season.

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  3. #107
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Not to be repetative, but the award isn't named the BAAP (Best All-Around Player) award. It's named the Most Valuable Player Award, like it or not. I know The Sporting News gave out a Player of the Year award, and might still. That would fit the award you're looking for.
    Yet it still depends on how you want to define value. For me, MVP translates to "Most Outstanding Player". That is certainly not the case for everyone.

  4. #108
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Lol....did you use his RBI stat? Aren't RBI stats frowned upon on here?....for a lead off hitter? Lol How did he finish in runs? 1st (139).....triples? 1st (20)

    It's fine I get your elite statement and I agree with the OPS and in his park, position aside was clearly not elite....but bringing out his RBI stat? C'mon you're better than that.
    I am better than that, but the MVP voters aren't/weren't and that is exactly what we were discussing. What they looked at. And I promise you that they were looking at RBI.

  5. #109
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    I want to be very clear. Measuring value to a specific team in a specific year in no way is intended to say one guy is better than another or to project future stats.

    It's simply asking who was more valuable.

    Next season, would you rather a guy hit 20 solo home runs or 10 grand slams in 2 out situations? The guy with 20 home runs had a better performance, but I would say the (lucky) guy that hits 10 grand slams will be more valuable. Despite his circumstances being team dependent.

  6. #110
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I want to be very clear. Measuring value to a specific team in a specific year in no way is intended to say one guy is better than another or to project future stats.

    It's simply asking who was more valuable.

    Next season, would you rather a guy hit 20 solo home runs or 10 grand slams in 2 out situations? The guy with 20 home runs had a better performance, but I would say the (lucky) guy that hits 10 grand slams will be more valuable. Despite his circumstances being team dependent.
    I think that there is entirely too much data missing for me to determine who was more valuable.

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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Well-so far no one has hit 10 grand slams in a season-so that would really be something. The previous high is 6, done by Don Mattingly and Travis Hafner.

  8. #112
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think that there is entirely too much data missing for me to determine who was more valuable.
    I think you're missing the overall point and focusing on things from too narrow of a viewpoint.

    From a high level viewpoint, in MVP discussions, the team, and environment will always matter because you can never simulate what would have happened in a different set of circumstances.

    I think if you look at Mike Trout, the sum of his components is going to result in him really being the best player in baseball based on his performance this season.... I don't think there is much doubt about that. But when you have other players also doing a bunch of measurably valuable things, and doing them in situations that matter, I will always find it difficult not to assign some extra value to that (because we know it happened in important circumstances). I don't think you'll get a lot of argument that Rivera getting 3 straight out in a 1 run game in game 7 of the World Series is infinitely more "valuable" than doing the exact same in game 38 of the regular season.

    It sucks for Trout that his team stinks, but in reality, the results of MLB this year would be essentially unchanged without Mike Trout existing. At some point you need to look at what Miguel Cabrera or a Robinson Cano has done, in the race that they have been in, and appreciate due to the circumstances that this baseball season would be dramatically different (and worse for their team) without those players' specific contributions.

    Leverage matters in a player's ability to provide real value to the bottom line, and it always will, regardless of what one player's individual performance in a vacuum dictates.

    With that said, I'd still give a ton of consideration for giving the award to Trout because I think he has been that much better than everyone else, and I still think individual performance still needs to be the staple for the award. There's only so much you can punish a guy for his teammates. I think in a lot of seasons he would win it.

    But at the end of the day, I'd go with Miggy, because he's also having a superlative season (even if not to the same degree), and his contributions at the end of the day has had a meaningful impact on the season. I know from previous discussions with you that you will never agree with that, but at the end of the day, this is how the real world works. The MVP has always been to award high quality, and meaninful performances, and at the end of the day, a great performance in a meaningful situation matters more than an elite performance in a non-meaningful situation.
    Last edited by Patrick Bateman; 09-12-2013 at 03:13 PM.

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  10. #113
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think that there is entirely too much data missing for me to determine who was more valuable.
    With the metrics we have available today, I don't think it is a stretch to think we should be able extract data on an individual player that shows 1) what positive things he did in a teams wins and 2) what negative things he did in losses. (Things that increased odds of winning/losing)

    3 errors in a game that your team wins? Didnt have much negative value to your team other than raising pitch counts.

    3 errors in a loss? May have cost your team a good chance at winning. Probably has more negative value, depending on game circumstances.

  11. #114
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    As long as the word "valuable" is in the award. I agree that there has to be team-result component. The higher the team finishes, the more value there is, i.e. there is more value in taking a team from 3rd to 1st than from 5th to 3rd.

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  13. #115
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    With the metrics we have available today, I don't think it is a stretch to think we should be able extract data on an individual player that shows 1) what positive things he did in a teams wins and 2) what negative things he did in losses. (Things that increased odds of winning/losing)

    3 errors in a game that your team wins? Didnt have much negative value to your team other than raising pitch counts.

    3 errors in a loss? May have cost your team a good chance at winning. Probably has more negative value, depending on game circumstances.
    So on the flip side, you would take away 3 home runs that a guy hit in a game his team lost?

  14. #116
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    With the metrics we have available today, I don't think it is a stretch to think we should be able extract data on an individual player that shows 1) what positive things he did in a teams wins and 2) what negative things he did in losses. (Things that increased odds of winning/losing)

    3 errors in a game that your team wins? Didnt have much negative value to your team other than raising pitch counts.
    In that game, sure. What about the next game or two where your bullpen is beat down because your starter went just 5 innings because of those errors? We can play this kind of game all day long.

    All production, or failure, counts.

  15. #117
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I acknowledge that. My basis is this: In performing a retrospective review of performance for the season, if you were to "draft" any one player's performance for your team, who would you take with the number one pick? Who provided the most value BY HIMSELF. That person had the most valuable season in baseball. Therefore, I consider that player to be the Most Valuable Player.
    That's the most talented player, not the most valuable player. For instance, Troy Tulowitzki arguably was that player for a few years, but never once was he a serious MVP candidate. Chase Utley was the best player on the Phillies when they had their recent run and he might have been that mythical #1 overall pick for a couple of seasons, but no one's shedding a tear that he never won an MVP or saying it's unfair to Utley that two lesser talented teammates did win the MVP. Barry Larkin spent the early 90s as that player (or at least on the short list of guys who could be that guy), but he only had three seasons where he could make a substantial MVP case.

    And I suspect Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, two guys who are going to get close to 0 MVP votes, would get a fair number of takers at #1.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    The award, in my opinion, is about who performed the best. Not the incremental value you have over who you would be playing over. If Miguel Cabrera put up this season with the Mets (and Mike Trout did not exist), I would consider him the most valuable player, even if it means that David Wright was rotting on the bench. There is a difference in being the most valuable player in baseball, and providing incremental value to your team.
    Problem there is all performance is contextual. And the value you provide to your team is a frontline concern for something called the Most VALUABLE Player award.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I think that selecting Mike Trout would give me the best chance to win baseball games. I would select him due to his exceptional bat (inferior to Cabrera's but exceptional), his outstanding defense (far superior to Cabrera), his outstanding baserunning (far superior to Cabrera), as well as position scarcity.
    That's what I'd do in a fantasy draft, though Cabrera plays a position with more scarcity. There's a lot of talent in CF these days, and CF defense is easy to come by. If I ran a baseball team, my preference of Trout vs. Cabrera (not that I could get either one) would depend on my team circumstances. Stylistically I prefer Trout's game, but that doesn't mean he's necessarily the better player.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    The fact that the Angels did not make the playoffs, does not make Trout any less valuable of a player.
    Sure it does. The fact that the Angels have been irrelevant this season means Trout's performance hasn't had much impact on the league. He's great to watch, but his numbers (especially during his torrid post All-Star run) are largely self-serving. Whether he theoretically would have been more valuable in other circumstances makes for interesting navel gazing, but it ignores the rather pertinent detail that the award is based on actual circumstances. The MVP shouldn't be a thought experiment.
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  16. #118
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    So on the flip side, you would take away 3 home runs that a guy hit in a game his team lost?
    Yes. In this theory.

    All for naught, in terms of team wins. We can debate the indirect effects of them, but they were mostly for naught.

  17. #119
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    I know one thing re: MVP -- it would be boring as hell if we ever just chuck all the stats into a computer and have it spit out a winner. This discussion is part of what makes it a great debate.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

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  19. #120
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    That's the most talented player, not the most valuable player.
    No, it's not the most talented player. It's the player that produced the most. There is a difference.

    And again, please go back to my statement that everyone defines "Most Valuable Player" differently.

    For instance, Troy Tulowitzki arguably was that player for a few years, but never once was he a serious MVP candidate.
    Don't understand this comp. Troy was 7th in WAR in 2009 and 5th in the MVP voting. 7th in WAR in 2010 and 5th in the MVP voting again.

    Chase Utley was the best player on the Phillies when they had their recent run and he might have been that mythical #1 overall pick for a couple of seasons, but no one's shedding a tear that he never won an MVP or saying it's unfair to Utley that two lesser talented teammates did win the MVP.
    No one is saying that? I know plenty of people that would say that Utley was more valuable than Ryan Howard in 2006. And I know a LOT of people that would say Utley was more valuable than Rollins in 2007.

    Barry Larkin spent the early 90s as that player (or at least on the short list of guys who could be that guy), but he only had three seasons where he could make a substantial MVP case.
    We're getting to a point where we're talking about two different things. How things are executed by the media voting on this award vs. how some people (myself included) think that thought process is very flawed. There are reasons that these players (Larkin, Rollins, Howard) won the MVP... I just don't agree with them.

    And I suspect Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, two guys who are going to get close to 0 MVP votes, would get a fair number of takers at #1.
    You think there are people that would take Bryce Harper's 2013 over Mike Trout's? Or Manny Machado's?? You're going to have to explain that one to me.

    Problem there is all performance is contextual. And the value you provide to your team is a frontline concern for something called the Most VALUABLE Player award.
    The point is you can provide a ton of value to your team, and still have your team let you down. Last season, the Angels had more wins than the Tigers, but the Tigers made the playoffs. Circumstances were obviously completely out of Trout's hands. Did Trout provide less value to his team? No, he got extremely unlucky with what division he was in. Just because your team sucked it doesn't mean you didn't provide an extremely large amount of value.

    That's what I'd do in a fantasy draft, though Cabrera plays a position with more scarcity. There's a lot of talent in CF these days, and CF defense is easy to come by. If I ran a baseball team, my preference of Trout vs. Cabrera (not that I could get either one) would depend on my team circumstances. Stylistically I prefer Trout's game, but that doesn't mean he's necessarily the better player.
    I guess I just don't see how you can say there is a lot of talent in CF these days without saying the same for 3B. The whole point of WAR is pointing out that Trout is way better than a replacement CF'er than Cabrera is compared to a replacement 3Bman. By definition, it's harder to replace Trout's production than it is Cabreras. You can complain about WAR all you want, but there is no better stat at comparing a player's value compared to a replacement player (what you implied by saying there is a lot of talent in CF these days, and that CF defense is easy to come by).

    Sure it does. The fact that the Angels have been irrelevant this season means Trout's performance hasn't had much impact on the league. He's great to watch, but his numbers (especially during his torrid post All-Star run) are largely self-serving. Whether he theoretically would have been more valuable in other circumstances makes for interesting navel gazing, but it ignores the rather pertinent detail that the award is based on actual circumstances. The MVP shouldn't be a thought experiment.
    The irony in your statement is those that go out of their way to conclude that the BEST PLAYER shouldn't get the award are the ones that make it a thought experiment.

    For me? It's simple. Who was the best player? That person is the most valuable player in baseball. Most irreplaceable. Best player to have on your team. That is the MVP.

    Voters these days turn it into these things: Counting (offensive stats), team's performance, historical performance for that player, leadership, etc.


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