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Thread: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

  1. #121
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Shouldn't there be distinction made between winning and chances of winning? A single player usually doesn't have it in his power to determine decisively the outcome of a game. He does, however, have the ability to contribute heavily to his team's chances of winning games. My guess is that the latter would correlate pretty highly with the runs he creates and the ones he prevents.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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  3. #122
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    No, it's not the most talented player. It's the player that produced the most. There is a difference.
    Then that's not necessarily the first player people would take if they were starting a team. And what's the bar we're using for "produced the most"? I fear we're back to WAR.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Don't understand this comp. Troy was 7th in WAR in 2009 and 5th in the MVP voting. 7th in WAR in 2010 and 5th in the MVP voting again.
    It's not a comp. The point is that after 2009 and 2010 Tulo might have been the consensus first player people would pick if they were starting a team and he never got a single first place MVP vote. Voters simply don't use the criteria you're trying to apply here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    No one is saying that? I know plenty of people that would say that Utley was more valuable than Ryan Howard in 2006. And I know a LOT of people that would say Utley was more valuable than Rollins in 2007.
    I know plenty of people who would agree, but no one's all that upset about it. In the "Who got screwed by Howard and Rollins winning the MVP?" discussion, Utley rarely comes up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    We're getting to a point where we're talking about two different things. How things are executed by the media voting on this award vs. how some people (myself included) think that thought process is very flawed. There are reasons that these players (Larkin, Rollins, Howard) won the MVP... I just don't agree with them.
    So Larkin spent roughly seven seasons (alongside Bonds and Griffey Jr.) as the nominal player people would have picked to start a team and you don't think he deserved an MVP? I submit you need to think harder about your first pick test.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    You think there are people that would take Bryce Harper's 2013 over Mike Trout's? Or Manny Machado's?? You're going to have to explain that one to me.
    I think if there were people starting a team from scratch right now, that plenty would take Harper or Machado over Trout. Harper's LH power ceiling is unreal and Machado is like the second coming of A-Rod (hopefully without the chemistry set). But to be fair to your argument, I'm making a baseball counter argument to your fantasy test.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    The point is you can provide a ton of value to your team, and still have your team let you down. Last season, the Angels had more wins than the Tigers, but the Tigers made the playoffs. Circumstances were obviously completely out of Trout's hands. Did Trout provide less value to his team? No, he got extremely unlucky with what division he was in. Just because your team sucked it doesn't mean you didn't provide an extremely large amount of value. [
    Again, yes it does mean that. Value and performance are not synonyms.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I guess I just don't see how you can say there is a lot of talent in CF these days without saying the same for 3B. The whole point of WAR is pointing out that Trout is way better than a replacement CF'er than Cabrera is compared to a replacement 3Bman. By definition, it's harder to replace Trout's production than it is Cabreras.
    I suggest you take a closer look at who's playing CF and 3B these days. More teams are getting more performance out of CF. The hot corner's in a slump.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    You can complain about WAR all you want, but there is no better stat at comparing a player's value compared to a replacement player (what you implied by saying there is a lot of talent in CF these days, and that CF defense is easy to come by).
    I didn't imply anything. CF defense is easy to come by these days. Trout's a fine CF and he's not the first choice defensive CF on his own team. The Yankees play three CFs in their OF. The Giants didn't bat an eye in replacing Angel Pagan's defense when he got injured.

    As for WAR, arguing that it be the arbiter on these things is, IMO, as flawed as arguing that BA and RBI should be the determining factors.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    The irony in your statement is those that go out of their way to conclude that the BEST PLAYER shouldn't get the award are the ones that make it a thought experiment.
    No, context counts and should be understood when determining value. I don't know how it might have affected another team if it had Mike Trout. I know how it affected the Angels - not enough to make the team matter. I also know that Cabrera and Cano have played vital roles on contending teams. There is a difference between putting thought into actual events and conducting a thought experiment. You're doing the latter.

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    For me? It's simple. Who was the best player? That person is the most valuable player in baseball. Most irreplaceable. Best player to have on your team. That is the MVP.
    Again, refer to the name of the award. Though determining who the actual best player is isn't the simple, reductionist task that you're pretending it is.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  5. #123
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Shouldn't there be distinction made between winning and chances of winning? A single player usually doesn't have it in his power to determine decisively the outcome of a game. He does, however, have the ability to contribute heavily to his team's chances of winning games. My guess is that the latter would correlate pretty highly with the runs he creates and the ones he prevents.
    Sure, theoretically. If you want to award the TMVP, go for it. The counterpoint here is that a distinction should be made between things that did happen and things that didn't happen.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  6. #124
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Voters these days turn it into these things: Counting (offensive stats), team's performance, historical performance for that player, leadership, etc.
    The baseball writers have been giving this award for 83 years. They have been voting the exact same way all this time. It is their award; who can tell them how they should vote? I'm always amused when someone tells them they are doing it wrong or thinks they will suddenly change the way they do things. At some point, don't you have to accept that they are going to do it their way and just move on?

  7. #125
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Sure, theoretically. If you want to award the TMVP, go for it. The counterpoint here is that a distinction should be made between things that did happen and things that didn't happen.
    It isn't just theoretical. Players contribute positive events to non-winning efforts all the time. This is still "valuable" and does actually happen. Not getting a win shouldn't invalidate what good players do.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  8. #126
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    The baseball writers have been giving this award for 83 years. They have been voting the exact same way all this time. It is their award; who can tell them how they should vote? I'm always amused when someone tells them they are doing it wrong or thinks they will suddenly change the way they do things. At some point, don't you have to accept that they are going to do it their way and just move on?
    I don't think this is true. There are tons of trends and changes in perspective throughout the history, I would imagine. Felix Hernandez would not have won a Cy Young with 13 wins if this were true.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  9. #127
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I don't think this is true. There are tons of trends and changes in perspective throughout the history, I would imagine. Felix Hernandez would not have won a Cy Young with 13 wins if this were true.
    The Cy Young is a different animal. There are tons of examples in the award's history of winners being from teams not in contention. Five of the last six years the award in at least one of the leagues has gone to such a player.

    That's because they are voting for the best pitcher as opposed to the most valuable position player on a contending team.

  10. #128
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I am better than that, but the MVP voters aren't/weren't and that is exactly what we were discussing. What they looked at. And I promise you that they were looking at RBI.
    Then why did they choose Rollins? Of course they looked at RBI....I imagine they looked at about everything that seemed pertinent in 2007. I imagine they took the top obvious people and found the most good things. OPS was not likely a factor back then (at least for the voters) and outs were likely ignored at that time as well. I'd guess his biggest negative was not hitting .300 lol

    Only 6 yeas ago but I'd bet on the Topps stats ruling with ESPN.com and MLB.com with a touch of baseball reference.....I'd guess the majority of those went through it like this:

    Wow...he played in every game!
    Wow...he lead NL with 139 runs!
    Over 200 hits! (212)
    38 doubles...nice
    20 triples....Wow!
    30 HR....big number for a SS
    RBI.....not big but pretty big for a lead off guy
    40+ SB....very good (only caught 6 a bonus)
    Defense in the GG conversation and a good shot at winning!
    Team in playoffs!

    I'd be shocked if they went much further into than that.

    Just for giggles what would be your top 3 that year?

  11. #129
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    The Cy Young is a different animal. There are tons of examples in the award's history of winners being from teams not in contention. Five of the last six years the award in at least one of the leagues has gone to such a player.

    That's because they are voting for the best pitcher as opposed to the most valuable position player on a contending team.
    Fair point. Perhaps Cy Young has this sort of distinction built into its history. But the MVP doesn't have to be from a contending team technically. Andre Dawson says hi. Though I grant that the voters do tend to veer that way.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  12. #130
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    The baseball writers have been giving this award for 83 years. They have been voting the exact same way all this time. It is their award; who can tell them how they should vote? I'm always amused when someone tells them they are doing it wrong or thinks they will suddenly change the way they do things. At some point, don't you have to accept that they are going to do it their way and just move on?
    Not exactly the same way the whole time, but the same way recently. They used to give more pitchers the MVP before the Cy Young came around, and early on more BA oriented hitters would win. They do tend to a profile that favors good rankings in the Triple Crown stats.

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    RedEye (09-12-2013)

  14. #131
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    I'm open minded. Convince me.

    Was Bill Buckner's error in Game 6 more or less or the same (negative) value to the Red Sox as opposed to an error he committed that summer during a Red Sox win? "To the Red Sox" is an important clause that needs to be addressed.

    /I know he was not to blame completely for the Sox choke

  15. #132
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Not exactly the same way the whole time, but the same way recently. They used to give more pitchers the MVP before the Cy Young came around, and early on more BA oriented hitters would win. They do tend to a profile that favors good rankings in the Triple Crown stats.
    They've been giving the Cy Young Award for 57 years. So if that is what you mean by "recently" then I agree.

    With very few exceptions:

    Before 1956 = best player on contending team
    After 1956 = best position player on contending team

    Every now and then a pitcher will have a season for the ages and win the MVP. Or there will be no clear-cut winner from a contender in a year where someone from a crappy team has a monster year. But those are clearly exceptions, not rules.
    Last edited by Norm Chortleton; 09-12-2013 at 09:28 PM.

  16. #133
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I'm open minded. Convince me.

    Was Bill Buckner's error in Game 6 more or less or the same (negative) value to the Red Sox as opposed to an error he committed that summer during a Red Sox win? "To the Red Sox" is an important clause that needs to be addressed.

    /I know he was not to blame completely for the Sox choke
    You lost me with this example. What does an error in the post-season have to do with a regular season award competition like the MVP?

  17. #134
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    Every now and then a pitcher will have a season for the ages and win the MVP. Or there will be no clear-cut winner from a contender in a year where someone from a crappy team has a monster year. But those are clearly exceptions, not rules.
    I agree that the "on a contending team" piece continues to be important and what often separates a horse in the race. It does seem possible that the trends toward different uses of statistical analysis could eventually lead to a different award winner within that category. For example, were it not for McCutchen, I think you could easily see Votto win the award hitting just over .300 with 22 HR and 75 RBI. His victory, in this case, would fly in the face of a lot of MVP award tradition, but I don't think it would be that controversial even to mainstream commentators these days.

  18. #135
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Who are your favorites for AL/NL MVP?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    You lost me with this example. What does an error in the post-season have to do with a regular season award competition like the MVP?
    It has to do with value, not the MVP. Are they equal in value to Boston?


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