Reds pitching: stuff championships are made of

[Brutus]

Although the playoffs are such a crapshoot, one thing is undeniable: run prevention is huge in making a run. Pitching and defense correlate to championships a lot higher than offense, although the Reds' offense, statistically, is in pretty good shape too.

This week served as a pretty good indication what the Reds could do against a quality opponent in a playoff series.

Combined, the Reds gave up just 16 runs in 71 innings against the Cardinals and Dodgers. That's almost exactly 2.0 runs per game extrapolated to nine innings. And what's more is they beat Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw in the same week.

And let's not forget Chapman who, a case could be made, just had the most dominant week a reliever could have in baseball:

5 IP
17 BF
11 K
1 H
1 BB
71 pitches
53 strikes (29 swing and miss)
60 fastballs (average 100.8 MPH)

With Latos and Bailey pitching as well as they are lately, Marshall and Cueto appearing to be close to returning for added help, and Chapman channeling his inner video game, cheat code fastball, the Reds' prospects look as good as any to make an October run.

[traderumor]

In GABP, the staff homer rate is 1.0

That is probably one of the most impressive stats for me.

[mdccclxix]

The pieces are all in place. I think the fans are starting to see the prize is out there to be taken. The charge is beginning!

[1940757690]

Although the playoffs are such a crapshoot, one thing is undeniable: run prevention is huge in making a run. Pitching and defense correlate to championships a lot higher than offense, although the Reds' offense, statistically, is in pretty good shape too.

This week served as a pretty good indication what the Reds could do against a quality opponent in a playoff series.

Combined, the Reds gave up just 16 runs in 71 innings against the Cardinals and Dodgers. That's almost exactly 2.0 runs per game extrapolated to nine innings. And what's more is they beat Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw in the same week.

And let's not forget Chapman who, a case could be made, just had the most dominant week a reliever could have in baseball:

5 IP
17 BF
11 K
1 H
1 BB
71 pitches
53 strikes (29 swing and miss)
60 fastballs (average 100.8 MPH)

With Latos and Bailey pitching as well as they are lately, Marshall and Cueto appearing to be close to returning for added help, and Chapman channeling his inner video game, cheat code fastball, the Reds' prospects look as good as any to make an October run.

Really interesting post. For me, the comparison to Washington is pretty natural since, on paper, Stan Kasten and Mike Rizzo also designed the Nats to be pitching and defense led and, last year, both teams won their divisions. Both the Nats and the Reds also had horrible (if differently flavored) LDS collapses. One could argue that the Nats' pitching staff (Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ty Detwiler, Clippard for setup, Soriano for closer) is in the same strata as the Reds.

The difference in 2013, where the Nats have been measurably worse, is defense (top 3 in the NL in errors with 3B and SS the most guilty culprits), the pen (mixed bag this year) and, most of all, really bad offense. The Nats and Reds both hit lightly much of the time. The difference is the Reds bring the necessary runs across the plate most of the time. The Reds' offense is more professional, more productive and, most important, more aligned; all huge issues in Washington.

[Brutus]

Really interesting post. For me, the comparison to Washington is pretty natural since, on paper, Stan Kasten and Mike Rizzo also designed the Nats to be pitching and defense led and, last year, both teams won their divisions. Both the Nats and the Reds also had horrible (if differently flavored) LDS collapses. One could argue that the Nats' pitching staff (Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ty Detwiler, Clippard for setup, Soriano for closer) is in the same strata as the Reds.

The difference in 2013, where the Nats have been measurably worse, is defense (top 3 in the NL in errors with 3B and SS the most guilty culprits), the pen (mixed bag this year) and, most of all, really bad offense. The Nats and Reds both hit lightly much of the time. The difference is the Reds bring the necessary runs across the plate most of the time. The offense is more professional and aligned; both huge issues in Washington.

Well, the Reds have scored 52 runs more than the Nationals, so their offenses aren't too terribly comparable, either. For that matter, the Reds' offense is second in the NL in runs scored. So to whatever extent the Reds have hit light this year, so have 13 other teams in the league to a greater extent.

[1940757690]

Well, the Reds have scored 52 runs more than the Nationals, so their offenses aren't too terribly comparable, either. For that matter, the Reds' offense is second in the NL in runs scored. So to whatever extent the Reds have hit light this year, so have 13 other teams in the league to a greater extent.

Yep. Like I wrote, the Nat's offense has been "really bad" this year. Goes beyond the run differential. Situational hitting in Washington has been positively awful as has the performance versus lefties. On paper, the teams were more similar than different in Spring Training. In actuality now that that season is almost over, the differences in defense and offense couldn't have been much more vast.

[PuffyPig]

The Reds defense deserves a big share of the credit in run prevention.

The team's DER (Defensive Efficiency Rating) is .724, which means it is allowing a .276 BAPIP this year, good for best in the majors.

The Reds pitchers are striking out lots of players, and when they do hit it into play, the defense is turning more balls into outs than any other team. It's a good recipe for run prevention.

[IslandRed]

The team's DER (Defensive Efficiency Rating) is .724, which means it is allowing a .276 BAPIP this year, good for best in the majors.

I would not have thought that was possible with Choo in center field, as he was an obvious trade-defense-for-offense compromise and that's something the Reds don't like to do anymore. But Choo's been adequate, and being flanked by good defenders helped, so the outfield hasn't been a disaster like I'd feared. And the infield is really strong, Frazier's been better than I expected.

[RedEye]

I can't believe how different the current edition of this team is than every previous one I have rooted for. I never thought I'd see a Reds team with this much pitching talent or depth. Truly a credit to the organization, top to bottom. And, as Brutus points out, the hitters ain't half bad either.

[RedEye]

Too lazy to look this up right now, but what is the assessment of Choo's D right now? I was terrified he was going to be a real liability, but as Island points out, that doesn't seem to have been the case so far.

[dougdirt]

Don't walk guys. Strike guys out. Success.

The Reds starting staff, aside from Cingrani, are all showing very good or great walk rates. That is huge. Latos, Bailey and Cingrani are showing very good to elite strikeout rates.

The bullpen is pretty good too.

I hate the idea of being in a 1-game playoff though. One bad game ruins all of that. Let's just get the division and avoid the chance that it could work out that way.

[dougdirt]

Too lazy to look this up right now, but what is the assessment of Choo's D right now? I was terrified he was going to be a real liability, but as Island points out, that doesn't seem to have been the case so far.

He is better than he was to begin the year, but he still isn't good out there. He simply isn't fast enough. But, at least he is taking good routes now.

[IslandRed]

He is better than he was to begin the year, but he still isn't good out there. He simply isn't fast enough. But, at least he is taking good routes now.

Right, it wouldn't be pretty to watch if the Reds played their home games in a cavernous park or if he didn't have pretty good support to the left and right. But under the circumstances, it's worked as well as it could have.

[dubc47834]

My question would be, what happens come the playoffs with the rotation and then those that don't make it? Do we go 3 man or 4 man rotation? With the days off I think we could go 3 man rotation, man that would be stacked!!! Latos and Bailey, then who. Gonna be some interesting decisions in the next couple weeks that need to be made. Great time to be a Reds fan!!!

[bucksfan2]

My question would be, what happens come the playoffs with the rotation and then those that don't make it? Do we go 3 man or 4 man rotation? With the days off I think we could go 3 man rotation, man that would be stacked!!! Latos and Bailey, then who. Gonna be some interesting decisions in the next couple weeks that need to be made. Great time to be a Reds fan!!!

They will go with a 4 man rotation if they make it to the best of 5 format. Dusty has done that in the past 2 series. If I were a betting man I think he slots it Latos, Arroyo, and then Bailey. I would go with Cingrani but I think Dusty will go with Leake.