Reds pitching: stuff championships are made of

[Brutus]

Although the playoffs are such a crapshoot, one thing is undeniable: run prevention is huge in making a run. Pitching and defense correlate to championships a lot higher than offense, although the Reds' offense, statistically, is in pretty good shape too.

This week served as a pretty good indication what the Reds could do against a quality opponent in a playoff series.

Combined, the Reds gave up just 16 runs in 71 innings against the Cardinals and Dodgers. That's almost exactly 2.0 runs per game extrapolated to nine innings. And what's more is they beat Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw in the same week.

And let's not forget Chapman who, a case could be made, just had the most dominant week a reliever could have in baseball:

5 IP
17 BF
11 K
1 H
1 BB
71 pitches
53 strikes (29 swing and miss)
60 fastballs (average 100.8 MPH)

With Latos and Bailey pitching as well as they are lately, Marshall and Cueto appearing to be close to returning for added help, and Chapman channeling his inner video game, cheat code fastball, the Reds' prospects look as good as any to make an October run.

[traderumor]

In GABP, the staff homer rate is 1.0

That is probably one of the most impressive stats for me.

[mdccclxix]

The pieces are all in place. I think the fans are starting to see the prize is out there to be taken. The charge is beginning!

[Todd Gack]

The pieces are all in place. I think the fans are starting to see the prize is out there to be taken. The charge is beginning!

God I hope so.

[JKam]

The Reds pitching is in much better shape than the Pirates and Cardinals.

The Pirates pitching staff has had a great year so far, but the bullpen has been overworked, and some guys are falling back to earth. Plus when the playoffs come around, their inexperience might be a problem.

The Cards have been putting a patchwork pitching staff together all season. It is amazing that they have so many quality arms, but they have problems. Wainwright is the only given on the staff and he's been knocked around pretty good lately (mostly by the Reds). Lynn has been faltering and so has Shelby Miller. On top of it all Miller and Wacha are quickly approaching their inning limits. If they each make 3-4 more starts in the regular season and a couple more in the playoffs, they will be in uncharted territory in terms of inning counts. Anytime Westbrook makes a start is a good thing for the Pirates and Reds.

The reds have two aces, Latos and Bailey, with experience. It looks like they can bring in a third ace, Cueto, for long relief whenever they need it. Cingrani has been great, but even if he's not starting, he can bolster the bullpen and there are two more quality starters in Arroyo and Leake that can take the ball. Reds are a little weak in the bullpen, but with possibly Cueto and Marshall coming back soon, it could be very solid. Chapman has been tearing up hitters since he had the one week rest.

Pitching, defense and timely hitting win championships. Timely hitting seems to determine whether the Reds will go far. It helps that the Reds can manufacture a run with Billy Hamilton around now.

[SporkLover]

The Reds pitching is in much better shape than the Pirates and Cardinals.

The Pirates pitching staff has had a great year so far, but the bullpen has been overworked, and some guys are falling back to earth. Plus when the playoffs come around, their inexperience might be a problem.

The Cards have been putting a patchwork pitching staff together all season. It is amazing that they have so many quality arms, but they have problems. Wainwright is the only given on the staff and he's been knocked around pretty good lately (mostly by the Reds). Lynn has been faltering and so has Shelby Miller. On top of it all Miller and Wacha are quickly approaching their inning limits. If they each make 3-4 more starts in the regular season and a couple more in the playoffs, they will be in uncharted territory in terms of inning counts. Anytime Westbrook makes a start is a good thing for the Pirates and Reds.

The reds have two aces, Latos and Bailey, with experience. It looks like they can bring in a third ace, Cueto, for long relief whenever they need it. Cingrani has been great, but even if he's not starting, he can bolster the bullpen and there are two more quality starters in Arroyo and Leake that can take the ball. Reds are a little weak in the bullpen, but with possibly Cueto and Marshall coming back soon, it could be very solid. Chapman has been tearing up hitters since he had the one week rest.

Pitching, defense and timely hitting win championships. Timely hitting seems to determine whether the Reds will go far. It helps that the Reds can manufacture a run with Billy Hamilton around now.

The crazy thing is that going back to July the Bucs and Cards pitching looked soooo dominant. Reds were solid, just didn't look as good. Bucs rotation has the same problems the Cards had.... Starting rotation running into rough patch and losing steam. The Cards more so than the Bucs had depth and a strong bullpen to fall back on. The Reds staff was just even keeled the whole way..... If anything the Bullpen was shaky at times, but the starters seemed to always to be able to turnover a good game to the BP making their job a bit easier. The progression of the season has certainly been something! I can't really remember a season like it, with three division rivals slugging it out so closely through the entire season.

[1940757690]

Although the playoffs are such a crapshoot, one thing is undeniable: run prevention is huge in making a run. Pitching and defense correlate to championships a lot higher than offense, although the Reds' offense, statistically, is in pretty good shape too.

This week served as a pretty good indication what the Reds could do against a quality opponent in a playoff series.

Combined, the Reds gave up just 16 runs in 71 innings against the Cardinals and Dodgers. That's almost exactly 2.0 runs per game extrapolated to nine innings. And what's more is they beat Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw in the same week.

And let's not forget Chapman who, a case could be made, just had the most dominant week a reliever could have in baseball:

5 IP
17 BF
11 K
1 H
1 BB
71 pitches
53 strikes (29 swing and miss)
60 fastballs (average 100.8 MPH)

With Latos and Bailey pitching as well as they are lately, Marshall and Cueto appearing to be close to returning for added help, and Chapman channeling his inner video game, cheat code fastball, the Reds' prospects look as good as any to make an October run.

Really interesting post. For me, the comparison to Washington is pretty natural since, on paper, Stan Kasten and Mike Rizzo also designed the Nats to be pitching and defense led and, last year, both teams won their divisions. Both the Nats and the Reds also had horrible (if differently flavored) LDS collapses. One could argue that the Nats' pitching staff (Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ty Detwiler, Clippard for setup, Soriano for closer) is in the same strata as the Reds.

The difference in 2013, where the Nats have been measurably worse, is defense (top 3 in the NL in errors with 3B and SS the most guilty culprits), the pen (mixed bag this year) and, most of all, really bad offense. The Nats and Reds both hit lightly much of the time. The difference is the Reds bring the necessary runs across the plate most of the time. The Reds' offense is more professional, more productive and, most important, more aligned; all huge issues in Washington.

[Brutus]

Really interesting post. For me, the comparison to Washington is pretty natural since, on paper, Stan Kasten and Mike Rizzo also designed the Nats to be pitching and defense led and, last year, both teams won their divisions. Both the Nats and the Reds also had horrible (if differently flavored) LDS collapses. One could argue that the Nats' pitching staff (Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ty Detwiler, Clippard for setup, Soriano for closer) is in the same strata as the Reds.

The difference in 2013, where the Nats have been measurably worse, is defense (top 3 in the NL in errors with 3B and SS the most guilty culprits), the pen (mixed bag this year) and, most of all, really bad offense. The Nats and Reds both hit lightly much of the time. The difference is the Reds bring the necessary runs across the plate most of the time. The offense is more professional and aligned; both huge issues in Washington.

Well, the Reds have scored 52 runs more than the Nationals, so their offenses aren't too terribly comparable, either. For that matter, the Reds' offense is second in the NL in runs scored. So to whatever extent the Reds have hit light this year, so have 13 other teams in the league to a greater extent.

[1940757690]

Well, the Reds have scored 52 runs more than the Nationals, so their offenses aren't too terribly comparable, either. For that matter, the Reds' offense is second in the NL in runs scored. So to whatever extent the Reds have hit light this year, so have 13 other teams in the league to a greater extent.

Yep. Like I wrote, the Nat's offense has been "really bad" this year. Goes beyond the run differential. Situational hitting in Washington has been positively awful as has the performance versus lefties. On paper, the teams were more similar than different in Spring Training. In actuality now that that season is almost over, the differences in defense and offense couldn't have been much more vast.

[PuffyPig]

The Reds defense deserves a big share of the credit in run prevention.

The team's DER (Defensive Efficiency Rating) is .724, which means it is allowing a .276 BAPIP this year, good for best in the majors.

The Reds pitchers are striking out lots of players, and when they do hit it into play, the defense is turning more balls into outs than any other team. It's a good recipe for run prevention.

[IslandRed]

The team's DER (Defensive Efficiency Rating) is .724, which means it is allowing a .276 BAPIP this year, good for best in the majors.

I would not have thought that was possible with Choo in center field, as he was an obvious trade-defense-for-offense compromise and that's something the Reds don't like to do anymore. But Choo's been adequate, and being flanked by good defenders helped, so the outfield hasn't been a disaster like I'd feared. And the infield is really strong, Frazier's been better than I expected.

[RedEye]

I can't believe how different the current edition of this team is than every previous one I have rooted for. I never thought I'd see a Reds team with this much pitching talent or depth. Truly a credit to the organization, top to bottom. And, as Brutus points out, the hitters ain't half bad either.

[Brutus]

I can't believe how different the current edition of this team is than every previous one I have rooted for. I never thought I'd see a Reds team with this much pitching talent or depth. Truly a credit to the organization, top to bottom. And, as Brutus points out, the hitters ain't half bad either.

To be honest, if someone had told me at the beginning of the year that the Reds would:

- not get Masset back at all
- lose Broxton to a season-ending injury after previous injuries through the year
- lose Marshall for basically the entire regular season
- have Chapman struggle to keep an ERA under 3.00
- get barely a half-dozen starts out of Cueto
- consequently rely on Manny Parra to be an asset in the bullpen

...I'd have been absolutely terrified of whether the Reds could stay afloat. Not that I wouldn't expect the rest of the starting rotation to be fine, but the bullpen would especially scare me. Just amazing how effective they've been, especially in the pen, despite the injuries and inconsistency of Chapman.

[Kc61]

Other than the top names, the pitching heroes IMO are Cingrani, Hoover, and Parra. All three really stepped up when the chips were down. The bullen struggled for awhile, but Hoover and Parra came on strong and picked it up.

IMO, the defensive hero is Choo. He has a bad range rating on UZR and so that measure is low. But I've seen at least one other measure that gives him very high marks for his outfield play. I noted it in my 140 game recap.

This is a great example of Jocketty thinking out of the box. Not sure most teams would have put Choo in CF. Yet while he isn't that fast he has played a very solid CF.

In terms of offense, I don't think the Reds need to be worldbeaters. They have to continue to find ways to score against top level pitching, as they did this past week.

[traderumor]

Other than the top names, the pitching heroes IMO are Cingrani, Hoover, and Parra. All three really stepped up when the chips were down. The bullen struggled for awhile, but Hoover and Parra came on strong and picked it up.

IMO, the defensive hero is Choo. He has a bad range rating on UZR and so that measure is low. But I've seen at least one other measure that gives him very high marks for his outfield play. I noted it in my 140 game recap.

This is a great example of Jocketty thinking out of the box. Not sure most teams would have put Choo in CF. Yet while he isn't that fast he has played a very solid CF.

In terms of offense, I don't think the Reds need to be worldbeaters. They have to continue to find ways to score against top level pitching, as they did this past week.

The thing is, one would be hard pressed to point to solid examples where Choo's D has been a game changer. It seems like the Reds have done with D here (Offensive output > drag on D) the same as they have successfully done with D > drag on O with Cozart, and like Chilli and Cheese fries at Skyline, its the perfect combination. Ok, maybe not perfect, but at least its fielding a very good baseball team.