"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I assume that fielders are not rated on "gross" numbers, but based on a percentage? So, giving a poorly positioned fielder extra chances to succeed also gives him additional chances to fail, does it not?
Wouldn't it be the same as saying that giving a batter more AB's increases his chances of getting more hits (and also more outs), but doesn't increase his chances of getting a higher BA.
UZR isn't trying to value skill, it is trying to value production. If one team has better scouting reports, that just kind of sucks for the player.... but what if a player is getting poor scouting reports on the pitchers and his offense suffers compared to what it would be if he were getting better scouting reports on a different team? The same thing, but it isn't as easy to see, so we don't worry about it. Same thing here. Worry about the production, not the skill. It is the production that counts, not what the production could potentially be if better utilized.
Hoping to change my username to 75769023
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Not necessarily. The better positioned fielder could have the same or better range, but it's never tested, because he's always in the right place and doesn't have to go far to get the balls hit to him. The poorly positioned fielder still has plus range, but he gets more credit for it because he's poorly positioned.
Hoping to change my username to 75769023
How could anyone measure how well or poorly a fielder is positioned? You'd have to know exactly where the fielder was expected to be for each pitch, and exactly how far away from that spot he was when the ball was hit. Plus you'd have to consider other situational factors -- was there a runner attempting to steal? Was there supposed to be a pick-off play?
There are way too many factors involved to make that
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Maybe I'm missing something here, but isn't that why we call them fielders and not rangers? No snark intended -- I guess I just don't see the point of having a ton of range if you don't also use it correctly. My guess is that while positioning may affect this or that play, the better overall fielder is going to triumph over the simple "ranger" over the long haul.
Really dig this thread, BTW.
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
Two ground balls are hit with the exact same speed, 15 feet inside the 3B line.
Player A is playing on the line in late innings to prevent a double.
Player B is playing normal depth and positioning and only has to move one step to his left to easily field the ball.
1. Does UZR penalize Player A if he doesn't make the miracle play?
2. If Player A does make the miracle play and gets an out at first, does UZR treat that play the same as Player B's routine play?
Yes to both. And they should be treated the same way. They were both a result of the same event.
If the manager forces you to bunt a guy over, you get penalized for it versus if he lets you swing away and you get a hit.
Fairly or unfairly, that is how it works with ALL stats. It isn't just fielding stats. Take a starting pitcher for example, with his spot in the rotation he may have to face much better lineups all year than someone else facing the exact same team (maybe his teammate after him always seems to get to pitch on getaway day, so he gets to face fewer regulars throughout the season). We don't break it down like that though with pitchers.
Only with defense do we decide that it needs to be perfect or it doesn't work at all.
Isn't UZR somewhat similar to valuing hitters by RBI, as an example?
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