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Thread: Examining UZR

  1. #16
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    True. But still, UZR gives players with above average range, who play out of position, a higher rating than players with similar range, who play on position. That seems to be an issue.
    Does it really? What re some examples we can point to and dissect?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #17
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Have you any data to suggest these assumptions about positioning/arm are actually valid? Also, how much are you assuming each assumption impacts a player's UZR score?
    I was hoping someone smarter than me would do that.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    That's an excellent point, and probably why UZR doesn't consider positioning.

    However, it does give an advantage to those players who are positioned poorly, since they will have more balls hit out of their zone, and thus more chances to make an out of the zone play. And it penalizes players for being positioned correctly for each hitter, since they will see less balls hit out of their zone.

    So basically, if a fielder wants to get a better UZR, he should play out of position.

    I'm not sure how to fix it, but it does seem to be a problem.
    I assume that fielders are not rated on "gross" numbers, but based on a percentage? So, giving a poorly positioned fielder extra chances to succeed also gives him additional chances to fail, does it not?

    Wouldn't it be the same as saying that giving a batter more AB's increases his chances of getting more hits (and also more outs), but doesn't increase his chances of getting a higher BA.

  5. #19
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post

    1. This has been discussed before, but UZR doesnít take into account positioning. As we have all seen, fielders positioned properly in regards to where the hitter is likely to hit the ball, save plenty of hits and runs. But UZR ignores these.
    UZR isn't trying to value skill, it is trying to value production. If one team has better scouting reports, that just kind of sucks for the player.... but what if a player is getting poor scouting reports on the pitchers and his offense suffers compared to what it would be if he were getting better scouting reports on a different team? The same thing, but it isn't as easy to see, so we don't worry about it. Same thing here. Worry about the production, not the skill. It is the production that counts, not what the production could potentially be if better utilized.

  6. #20
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    UZR isn't trying to value skill, it is trying to value production. If one team has better scouting reports, that just kind of sucks for the player.... but what if a player is getting poor scouting reports on the pitchers and his offense suffers compared to what it would be if he were getting better scouting reports on a different team? The same thing, but it isn't as easy to see, so we don't worry about it. Same thing here. Worry about the production, not the skill. It is the production that counts, not what the production could potentially be if better utilized.
    But the fielder with poor positioning, who gets to the same balls that the fielder with good positioning, gets a better UZR rating. They are providing the same production, but one has a higher rating because of the way UZR is calculated.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  7. #21
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    But the fielder with poor positioning, who gets to the same balls that the fielder with good positioning, gets a better UZR rating. They are providing the same production, but one has a higher rating because of the way UZR is calculated.
    Wouldn't the player who is positioned poorly but gets to the same balls be the better fielder?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #22
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Wouldn't the player who is positioned poorly but gets to the same balls be the better fielder?
    Not necessarily. The better positioned fielder could have the same or better range, but it's never tested, because he's always in the right place and doesn't have to go far to get the balls hit to him. The poorly positioned fielder still has plus range, but he gets more credit for it because he's poorly positioned.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #23
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    But the fielder with poor positioning, who gets to the same balls that the fielder with good positioning, gets a better UZR rating. They are providing the same production, but one has a higher rating because of the way UZR is calculated.
    How could anyone measure how well or poorly a fielder is positioned? You'd have to know exactly where the fielder was expected to be for each pitch, and exactly how far away from that spot he was when the ball was hit. Plus you'd have to consider other situational factors -- was there a runner attempting to steal? Was there supposed to be a pick-off play?

    There are way too many factors involved to make that
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  10. #24
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Not necessarily. The better positioned fielder could have the same or better range, but it's never tested, because he's always in the right place and doesn't have to go far to get the balls hit to him. The poorly positioned fielder still has plus range, but he gets more credit for it because he's poorly positioned.
    But the poorer positioned player would legitimately have more defensive value.

    Nonetheless, I have seen no evidence that the extreme scenario you are describing is a widespread or endemic problem.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #25
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    But the fielder with poor positioning, who gets to the same balls that the fielder with good positioning, gets a better UZR rating. They are providing the same production, but one has a higher rating because of the way UZR is calculated.
    If they are getting to the same balls, they would have the same UZR rating. UZR doesn't care where you start, it cares about where the ball was fielded.

  12. #26
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Not necessarily. The better positioned fielder could have the same or better range, but it's never tested, because he's always in the right place and doesn't have to go far to get the balls hit to him. The poorly positioned fielder still has plus range, but he gets more credit for it because he's poorly positioned.
    Maybe I'm missing something here, but isn't that why we call them fielders and not rangers? No snark intended -- I guess I just don't see the point of having a ton of range if you don't also use it correctly. My guess is that while positioning may affect this or that play, the better overall fielder is going to triumph over the simple "ranger" over the long haul.

    Really dig this thread, BTW.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  13. #27
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If they are getting to the same balls, they would have the same UZR rating. UZR doesn't care where you start, it cares about where the ball was fielded.
    Then how does it determine balls that are outside a fielder's zone? Honestly curious.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  14. #28
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If they are getting to the same balls, they would have the same UZR rating. UZR doesn't care where you start, it cares about where the ball was fielded.
    Two ground balls are hit with the exact same speed, 15 feet inside the 3B line.

    Player A is playing on the line in late innings to prevent a double.
    Player B is playing normal depth and positioning and only has to move one step to his left to easily field the ball.

    1. Does UZR penalize Player A if he doesn't make the miracle play?
    2. If Player A does make the miracle play and gets an out at first, does UZR treat that play the same as Player B's routine play?

  15. #29
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    Two ground balls are hit with the exact same speed, 15 feet inside the 3B line.

    Player A is playing on the line in late innings to prevent a double.
    Player B is playing normal depth and positioning and only has to move one step to his left to easily field the ball.

    1. Does UZR penalize Player A if he doesn't make the miracle play?
    2. If Player A does make the miracle play and gets an out at first, does UZR treat that play the same as Player B's routine play?
    Yes to both. And they should be treated the same way. They were both a result of the same event.

    If the manager forces you to bunt a guy over, you get penalized for it versus if he lets you swing away and you get a hit.

    Fairly or unfairly, that is how it works with ALL stats. It isn't just fielding stats. Take a starting pitcher for example, with his spot in the rotation he may have to face much better lineups all year than someone else facing the exact same team (maybe his teammate after him always seems to get to pitch on getaway day, so he gets to face fewer regulars throughout the season). We don't break it down like that though with pitchers.

    Only with defense do we decide that it needs to be perfect or it doesn't work at all.

  16. #30
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Isn't UZR somewhat similar to valuing hitters by RBI, as an example?


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