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Thread: Examining UZR

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Then how does it determine balls that are outside a fielder's zone? Honestly curious.
    Each position has a zone of coverage that is where they are expected to make plays on a ball. Anything made outside of that zone is a play made outside of the zone.

    Everything you always wanted to know about UZR

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  3. #32
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Isn't UZR somewhat similar to valuing hitters by RBI, as an example?
    No. It may be like using RBI% as a value though. It takes chances divided by successes.

  4. #33
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes to both. And they should be treated the same way. They were both a result of the same event.

    If the manager forces you to bunt a guy over, you get penalized for it versus if he lets you swing away and you get a hit.

    Fairly or unfairly, that is how it works with ALL stats. It isn't just fielding stats. Take a starting pitcher for example, with his spot in the rotation he may have to face much better lineups all year than someone else facing the exact same team (maybe his teammate after him always seems to get to pitch on getaway day, so he gets to face fewer regulars throughout the season). We don't break it down like that though with pitchers.

    Only with defense do we decide that it needs to be perfect or it doesn't work at all.
    But doesn't UZR make adjustments for base/out states where middle infielders are playing closer to 2b in double-play depth? Why would adjustments be made for them and not for the 3b in my example?

  5. #34
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    But doesn't UZR make adjustments for base/out states where middle infielders are playing closer to 2b in double-play depth? Why would adjustments be made for them and not for the 3b in my example?
    Adjustments are made for baserunners/outs, but not for positioning.

  6. #35
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Each position has a zone of coverage that is where they are expected to make plays on a ball. Anything made outside of that zone is a play made outside of the zone.

    Everything you always wanted to know about UZR
    Thanks.

    So it does account for positioning. So my first point is moot.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  7. #36
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Isn't UZR somewhat similar to valuing hitters by RBI, as an example?
    Uhhhh, no.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #37
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Nonetheless, I have seen no evidence that the extreme scenario you are describing is a widespread or endemic problem.
    I'm just presenting theoretical analysis of some problems that could occur because of the methodology of UZR. They may be so rare, they aren't worth discussing, but I'm not going to assume they are without seeing what the evidence says first. I think they are worth investigating by someone smarter and with more time than myself.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #38
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The adjustment is necessary, however, it seems like fielders playing some valuable positions, who have above average range, are getting rewarded doubly for their range, unfairly adding their fWAR value.
    There is a difference between being a SS as opposed to say, a RF, and being a particularly good SS relative to the average SS.

    Being an average SS gets you a 0 UZR, but being a SS at all gets you a boost over being a RF.

    Or put differently, the part of your range that enables you to be a SS in the first place is counted once. And the part of your range in comparison to other SS is counted. If you put Joey Votto at SS, he'd get credit for being a SS, but he'd be so bad at it that he'd give that bump back and more. Sort of like how Dunn grades out better defensively as a DH than as a fielder, despite getting significantly dinged for it.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #39
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    There is a difference between being a SS as opposed to say, a RF, and being a particularly good SS relative to the average SS.

    Being an average SS gets you a 0 UZR, but being a SS at all gets you a boost over being a RF.

    Or put differently, the part of your range that enables you to be a SS in the first place is counted once. And the part of your range in comparison to other SS is counted. If you put Joey Votto at SS, he'd get credit for being a SS, but he'd be so bad at it that he'd give that bump back and more. Sort of like how Dunn grades out better defensively as a DH than as a fielder, despite getting significantly dinged for it.
    I understand that.

    My issue is that an above average SS is going to get a higher UZR than a similarly above average 3B, even after the positional adjustment. This is because a SS gets significantly more chances to make out of the zone plays than a 3B. This is only true for above average fielders at certain positions, and it's because of the way the field is constructed.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #40
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I understand that.

    My issue is that an above average SS is going to get a higher UZR than a similarly above average 3B, even after the positional adjustment. This is because a SS gets significantly more chances to make out of the zone plays than a 3B. This is only true for above average fielders at certain positions, and it's because of the way the field is constructed.
    The shortstop also has a larger zone to cover than the 3B. Is that fair?

  12. #41
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The shortstop also has a larger zone to cover than the 3B. Is that fair?
    It should be. SS plays much deeper than 3B. And a 3B with good range will cut off balls before they get to the edge of the SS's zone.

  13. #42
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The shortstop also has a larger zone to cover than the 3B. Is that fair?
    And that should be taken into account with the positional adjustment. The issue is that it also is taken into account with how may balls he gets to out of his zone.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  14. #43
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    And that should be taken into account with the positional adjustment. The issue is that it also is taken into account with how may balls he gets to out of his zone.
    The position adjustment does not create a situation of double counting. All it does is normalize for talent distributions across the defensive spectrum.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #44
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The position adjustment does not create a situation of double counting. All it does is normalize for talent distributions across the defensive spectrum.
    The position adjustment doesn't create a situation of double counting. The extra plays a SS can make because his zone and out of zone is bigger than a 3B, does.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #45
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The position adjustment doesn't create a situation of double counting. The extra plays a SS can make because his zone and out of zone is bigger than a 3B, does.
    No it doesn't because SS are only compared to other SS.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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