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Thread: Examining UZR

  1. #76
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    UZR is designed to reflect production, not skill.
    Why do you keep saying this?

    UZR is designed to measure the impact a player has on preventing runs. In the case of an extreme shift, it's not the player that is preventing runs, it's the positioning. The player shouldn't get credit for making an out of zone play if it was made within a space he'd be expected to make the play given his position on the field.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #77
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Why do you keep saying this?

    UZR is designed to measure the impact a player has on preventing runs. In the case of an extreme shift, it's not the player that is preventing runs, it's the positioning. The player shouldn't get credit for making an out of zone play if it was made within a space he'd be expected to make the play given his position on the field.
    You're tying yourself into linguistic knots.

    It doesn't matter if it's because of positioning or a player's range or athletic skill, a hit was prevented by the fielder. Period.

    UZR, when used in WAR, is supposed to tells us how many runs that player saved his team. It doesn't matter if the runs were saved by skill or dumb luck, they were saved by that player. Any stat that doesn't include every run that a player saved his team defensively, regardless of how he saved them, is an inaccurate stat. It doesn't tells us accurately how many runs a player saved for his team.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  4. #78
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    You're tying yourself into linguistic knots.

    It doesn't matter if it's because of positioning or a player's range or athletic skill, a hit was prevented by the fielder. Period.
    It absolutely matters because positioning effects the quality of chances-a famous criticism of UZR.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    UZR, when used in WAR, is supposed to tells us how many runs that player saved his team. It doesn't matter if the runs were saved by skill or dumb luck, they were saved by that player.
    No but it does matter if player X would've saved it relative to player Y. If player X is positioned via an extreme shift and player Y is positioned traditionally, the comparison is not valid for the play in question. To not adjust for that would be introducing arror into the framework for what UZR is actually trying to measure.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Any stat that doesn't include every run that a player saved his team defensively, regardless of how he saved them, is an inaccurate stat. It doesn't tells us accurately how many runs a player saved for his team.
    Correcting for extreme shifts would make a range-dependent stat that calculates value relative to performance of peers on similar chances more accurate and therefore more useful.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It absolutely matters because positioning effects the quality of chances-a famous criticism of UZR.



    No but it does matter if player X would've saved it relative to player Y. If player X is positioned via an extreme shift and player Y is positioned traditionally, the comparison is not valid for the play in question. To not adjust for that would be introducing arror into the framework for what UZR is actually trying to measure.



    Correcting for extreme shifts would make a range-dependent stat that calculates value relative to performance of peers on similar chances more accurate and therefore more useful.
    UZR isn't a range dependent stat. It's not calculating how much range a player has. It's a counting stat. It counts how many runs a player saved his team while playing defense. Period. It shouldn't matter how that player saves them, especially if it is used as later of WAR.

    A players "range" should include how well he positions himself, if that positioning leads to an extra out the same way a players speed does.

    For example, if player X has a bigger glove than player Y, and that allows him to make an out of zone catch that player Y can't, player X still gets credit for that out of zone catch. If UZR was measuring range as a skill, it would have to account for things like a players glove size. But it's not measuring range as a skill. It's measuring how many runs a player saves on defense, no matter how that player saves them. If it doesn't do that, if it's only measuring skill as compared to other players, then it has no business being part of WAR.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    UZR isn't a range dependent stat. It's not calculating how much range a player has. It's a counting stat. It counts how many runs a player saved his team while playing defense. Period. It shouldn't matter how that player saves them, especially if it is used as later of WAR.
    It counts how many runs a player saved relative to the player's peers as defined by those who have responsibility for covering the same zones.

    Clearly extreme shifts negate this relationship.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    A players "range" should include how well he positions himself, if that positioning leads to an extra out the same way a players speed does.
    Extreme defensive shifts completely alter the concept of zone and redefine the concept of defensive responsibility. A shifted third baseman shouldn't get special credit for a routine ground ball over second base any more than he should be dinged for a routine line drive hit at his normal position while he's shifted. It's introducing error.

    UZR by definition calculates run values relative to positional peers.

    It's measuring how many runs a player saves on defense, no matter how that player saves them. If it doesn't do that, if it's only measuring skill as compared to other players, then it has no business being part of WAR.[/QUOTE]

    UZR by definition calculates run values relative to positional peers.

    WAR calculates offensive run values relative to major league average. The bat is normalized to marginal values based upon playing time and UZR is normalized to "mlb average" via positional shifts.

    That is simply how it's done. Arguing that UZR isn't a range-based stat ignores the nuts and bolts of it.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It counts how many runs a player saved relative to the player's peers as defined by those who have responsibility for covering the same zones.

    Clearly extreme shifts negate this relationship.



    Extreme defensive shifts completely alter the concept of zone and redefine the concept of defensive responsibility. A shifted third baseman shouldn't get special credit for a routine ground ball over second base any more than he should be dinged for a routine line drive hit at his normal position while he's shifted. It's introducing error.

    UZR by definition calculates run values relative to positional peers.

    It's measuring how many runs a player saves on defense, no matter how that player saves them. If it doesn't do that, if it's only measuring skill as compared to other players, then it has no business being part of WAR.
    UZR by definition calculates run values relative to positional peers.

    WAR calculates offensive run values relative to major league average. The bat is normalized to marginal values based upon playing time and UZR is normalized to "mlb average" via positional shifts.

    That is simply how it's done. Arguing that UZR isn't a range-based stat ignores the nuts and bolts of it.[/QUOTE]

    Positioning is part of a players range. A player that is better positioned is a better fielder than one that is not. A player who is better positioned saves more runs on defense than a player who is not.

    A batter who beats the shift, and hits a routine grounder to SS that becomes a hit because the SS was playing on the firstbase side if second, gets credit for that hit. Why shouldn't the fielder get dinged for not making that routine play?

    Conversely, a batter who hits what would have been a hit up the middle, but is now an out because the SS was playing him up the middle, does not get credit for a hit, even though he did what an average player would need to do to get a hit. Why shouldn't the fielder get credit for an out of zone play since an average fielder, positioned normally, would not have made that play?

    If UZR is measuring range as a skill relative to other fielders, it has no business in WAR, which measures production relative to other players. WAR doesn't measure how well a player hits a ball on offense. It measures how many runs a player on offense produces for his team, no matter how he produces them. It should do the same on defense.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #82
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    Re: Examining UZR

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    A batter who beats the shift, and hits a routine grounder to SS that becomes a hit because the SS was playing on the firstbase side if second, gets credit for that hit. Why shouldn't the fielder get dinged for not making that routine play?
    Because Brooks Robinson couldn't be positioned behind second and catch a soft liner pulled to third. Or to put it another way, a rightfielder shouldn't get dinged for a ball hit in the left center gap.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If UZR is measuring range as a skill relative to other fielders, it has no business in WAR, which measures production relative to other players. WAR doesn't measure how well a player hits a ball on offense. It measures how many runs a player on offense produces for his team, no matter how he produces them. It should do the same on defense.
    That arguement just isn't compelling and truthfully, it is at odds with how UZR is constructed.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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