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Thread: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Of the 15 highest rate strikeout guys, 11 have an OPS over .750.
    Of the 15 lowest rate strikeout guys, 4 have an OPS over .750.
    Yep. For 2013 batting title qualifiers, the top 50 (highest) K/AB-rate hitters have an aggregate OPS of .786. The bottom 50 (lowest) K/AB-rate hitters have an aggregate OPS of .748.

    A 40 point OPS gap between teams is worth @75 to 100 Runs per year to the advantage of the higher OPS offense.

    I know which group I'd rather take to battle.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    The "not liking where the game is going" part, I took that to be about people not being embarrassed about K'ing anymore.
    I took it to mean that three-true-outcomes baseball is boring compared to lots of contact and guys in motion and stolen bases and triples. Which it is. The game is far less interesting to watch in 2013 than it was in 1990.

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    The "stat boys" in Dusty lingo have come to be something like Boo Radley.


    You never really understand a person until you consider things from his point of view--until you climb inside of his skin and walk around in it.

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    The fact that Dusty singled out strikeouts exposes (again) his lack of understanding of how offense works. His inference is that strikeouts are worse than other outs on average, which has been proven beyond all shadow of doubt to be false. No sense in going over the data again since it has been done in dozens of other Redszone threads. Some people realize this, others don't know it yet, and others refuse to believe it. But its true.

    Dusty believes that hitters should change their approach to make more contact, which modern coaching has revealed to be a bad decision. A hitter should gear his approach to maximize his offensive production without worrying about what type of outs he makes. The goal is to avoid an out while getting as many bases as possible. How you make your outs doesn't matter, how many outs you make along with how much damage you do when you don't make an out is what separates good hitters from bad.

    A contact-oriented approach leads to weaker contact, which leads to fewer hits -- especially extra-base hits. To be a productive major league hitter you need to hit the ball HARD, not merely make contact. To hit the ball hard you need to swing hard, which causes you to swing and miss more often. The harder you hit the ball the more likely you are to get a hit, and the more likely that hit will be a gamechanging extra-base hit.

    You also need to take walks to be productive. To take walks you need to go deep in the count. Going deep in the count also makes it more likely you will strike out (you can't walk or strikeout on the first couple pitches). As long as your K/BB ratio is 2/1 or better your OBP (and hence your offensive productivity) will increase if you take enough pitches to get deep into counts. Exposing yourself to the strikeout can actually increase your OBP because of the walks that go along with seeing a lot of pitches. It is worth it for many players to take more strikeouts because of the walks that go along with them (there are certain infrequent situations where this is less true).

    If you make contact you can't walk. If you don't walk you can't have a stellar On-Base Percentage. If you don't have a stellar On-Base Percentage you can't be a star hitter.

    There will always be an aversion to strikeouts amongst casual fans. They believe strikeouts are the ultimate failure because you couldn't even hit the ball! Of course we know there are much worse outcomes than a strikeout -- grounding into double plays, elimination of lead runners, runners getting doubled-off on liners, and runners thrown out after tagging up for example are much, much more harmful than a strikeout.

    Teams have realized it is OK to have a higher percentage of the team's outs come in the form of the strikeout as long as that leads to more walks, hits and extra-base hits. For that reason they don't instruct their good hitters to maximize contact to avoid strikeouts. A poor hitter who can't hit the ball very hard might be well served by maximizing contact, but there aren't too many of those weaklings in the league anymore (Billy Hamilton, Tony Campana and the like).

    Many of the best hitters in the league strike out frequently, including Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo and Jay Bruce. The guys who are least likely to make an out tend to strike out more than the out machines. Counter intuitive but true.
    I don't disagree that some of the best hitters have high strikeout rates. But I guarantee you they don't like striking out. I also contend that a ball put in play will result in productivity more often than a strikeout.

    Even a weak ground ball is better than a strikeout sometimes - if it advances a runner. It might not be as productive as an XBH, but if it moves a runner, it's better than a strikeout.

    Perhaps the point to argue is how a hitter changes his approach based on the situation. The situation could be as simple as the count. Or maybe it's how many outs there are and which bases are occupied. Maybe that's part of Dusty's beef. Okay - swing for power early in the count, but when you get two strikes on you, maybe shorten up a half inch and try to put it in play.

    Whatever happened to "choke and poke" with two strikes?
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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Yep. For 2013 batting title qualifiers, the top 50 (highest) K/AB-rate hitters have an aggregate OPS of .786. The bottom 50 (lowest) K/AB-rate hitters have an aggregate OPS of .748.

    A 40 point OPS gap between teams is worth @75 to 100 Runs per year to the advantage of the higher OPS offense.

    I know which group I'd rather take to battle.
    Could you break that down into slash lines please? I am wondering if the low strikeout guys have higher batting averages while the higher strikeout guys have higher OBPs and SLGs.

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Of the 15 highest rate strikeout guys, 11 have an OPS over .750.
    Of the 15 lowest rate strikeout guys, 4 have an OPS over .750.
    The fact of the matter is that the best hitters are the ones that don't strike out as often. They're the ones that have better bat control, are more likely to make contact and put it in play more often. They're simply the guys that are better at seeing the ball and hitting it. They're the guys that will have a positive outcome far more often than ones that strike out 100+ times in a season. They're better at their craft than guys swinging and missing on 10-20 percent of strikes.

    Now, that being said, guys that are awful hitters but can hit 40 homers a season and consequently get walked a fair amount out of fear of the 3-run homer, have more overall value because those home runs will create a lot of runs.

    So in the macro, those high-strikeout guys that hit for power are valuable because they're going to create a lot of runs. But in the micro, the fact is the guys like Marco Scutaro have a ton of value because they're professional hitters that will put the ball in play and add a lot of hidden bases over the course of the season due to more hits and also more runners advancing. They're the guys that are more likely to create runs in tight situations with the game on the line.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by Cant Touch This View Post
    I don't disagree that some of the best hitters have high strikeout rates. But I guarantee you they don't like striking out. I also contend that a ball put in play will result in productivity more often than a strikeout.

    Even a weak ground ball is better than a strikeout sometimes - if it advances a runner. It might not be as productive as an XBH, but if it moves a runner, it's better than a strikeout.

    Perhaps the point to argue is how a hitter changes his approach based on the situation. The situation could be as simple as the count. Or maybe it's how many outs there are and which bases are occupied. Maybe that's part of Dusty's beef. Okay - swing for power early in the count, but when you get two strikes on you, maybe shorten up a half inch and try to put it in play.

    Whatever happened to "choke and poke" with two strikes?
    I agree that a contact out can occasionally advance a runner and be a "productive out", which is a good thing. But that benefit is canceled out by the bad things that can happen when you make a contact out. These are the things people forget about when they preach the benefits of productive outs. Things like grounding into double plays, fielder's choice plays that eliminate a lead runner, liners that result in a runner being doubled-off, and fly balls that result in a runner tagging up and getting thrown out are all vastly more harmful than a strikeout would have been in that situation. When you factor in all the things (good and bad) that can happen by making a contact out it just so happens that contact outs on average are no more or no less harmful than strikeouts. This has been proven by adding up all the results of real major league games over each season. Over the course of any season or seasons of your choice, contact outs are not better than strikeouts.
    .
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 09-14-2013 at 06:55 PM.

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    The fact of the matter is that the best hitters are the ones that don't strike out as often. They're the ones that have better bat control, are more likely to make contact and put it in play more often. They're simply the guys that are better at seeing the ball and hitting it. They're the guys that will have a positive outcome far more often than ones that strike out 100+ times in a season. They're better at their craft than guys swinging and missing on 10-20 percent of strikes.

    Now, that being said, guys that are awful hitters but can hit 40 homers a season and consequently get walked a fair amount out of fear of the 3-run homer, have more overall value because those home runs will create a lot of runs.

    So in the macro, those high-strikeout guys that hit for power are valuable because they're going to create a lot of runs. But in the micro, the fact is the guys like Marco Scutaro have a ton of value because they're professional hitters that will put the ball in play and add a lot of hidden bases over the course of the season due to more hits and also more runners advancing. They're the guys that are more likely to create runs in tight situations with the game on the line.
    SteelSD's numbers indicate the opposite is true. High strikeout guys outperform the low strikeout guys significantly.

    Putting the ball in play does not increase the chance of avoiding an out. Balls in play are just as likely to do harm in terms of eliminating runners as advancing them, but people ignore that reality.

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Putting the ball in play does not increase the chance of avoiding an out. Balls in play are just as likely to do harm in terms of eliminating runners as advancing them, but people ignore that reality.
    Not that I disagree, but it's still really hard for me to wrap my head around why pitcher K's are such a big deal then.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Dusty isn't happy, and he tells you why.

    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...er-Brewers-7-3

    "When you play ugly games at this level and you play them this late in the season and you're making the same mistakes, it makes you wonder about the baseball intellect of the team," Baker said. "It's something we've got to be working on all spring and continue to work on."

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    I agree that a contact out can occasionally advance a runner and be a "productive out", which is a good thing. But that benefit is canceled out by the bad things that can happen you make a contact out. These are the things people forget about when they preach the benefits of productive outs. Things like grounding into double plays, fielder's choice plays that eliminate a lead runner, liners that result in a runner being doubled-off, and fly balls that result in a runner tagging up and getting thrown out are all vastly more harmful than a strikeout would have been in that situation. When you factor in all the things (good and bad) that can happen by making a contact out it just so happens that contact outs on average are no more or no less harmful than strikeouts. This has been proven by adding up all the results of real major league games over each season. Over the course of any season or seasons of your choice, contact outs are not better than strikeouts.
    Absolutely and utterly untrue. It doesn't come anywhere near cancelling out.

    For starters, forceouts are immaterial because it's no different than a strikeout. But double plays don't come close to equaling the number of bases taken on hits and 'productive' outs.

    For instance: last year, the reds lost 100 baserunners because of double plays. However, the Reds also had 166 productive outs, reached on 63 errors and took an extra base 212 times on hits. That doesn't account for all the baserunners and hitters moving up the requisite bases on the hits themselves.

    The possibility of a double play doesn't come close to invalidating all the good that happens when the ball is put in play.
    Last edited by Brutus; 09-14-2013 at 07:03 PM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Not that I disagree, but it's still really hard for me to wrap my head around why pitcher K's are such a big deal then.
    Because it is one of the main things that the pitcher himself controls.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Thread about strike outs.
    SteelSD

    Good lord, it's 2004 again!

    I'm not in my 40's it was all a bad dream!

    I've got an awesome idea for a tv show and I think the dad from Malcom in the Middle would be perfect.
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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    SteelSD's numbers indicate the opposite is true. High strikeout guys outperform the low strikeout guys significantly.

    Putting the ball in play does not increase the chance of avoiding an out. Balls in play are just as likely to do harm in terms of eliminating runners as advancing them, but people ignore that reality.
    I'm talking about skill, not production.

    A guy that swings and misses only on 3% of all strikes but homers only 1.4 times in 100 plate appearances is a better hitter than the guy that swings and misses 12% of the time but homers 5.6 times. The OPS will say the guy who homers is a better player, and in terms of total runs created, that isn't untrue, but it doesn't make him a better hitter. It just means when he does hit the ball, he's stronger and can hit it a lot longer.

    There are a lot of .750 OPS guys that are far, far better hitters than guys that OPS .850 or .900. They don't create as many runs, and thus aren't necessarily as valuable because those 30-40 home runs hit in a season add up; but they're better hitters.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: "No matter what the stat boys say, you put the ball in play." - Dusty

    I'd rather have production then skill.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."


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