The Nats are Irrelevant

[1940757690]

Not sure I understand how the last two days made the Nats wholly unreliable.

Whatever.

Fair question, Kc. Permit me to answer it.

I don't think I said the last two days "made" the Nats wholly unreliable. Rather, think I said "...due to the Nats being wholly unreliable from game to game as the past two days showed."

That difference is key. The last two days were just a snapshot of the season-long problem. A great win was near-always followed by a horrible loss. Or two and two. Three and three. That's why if you look at the team's record on a monthly basis, you'll see they nailed nearly perfect .500 ball most every month. Besides the obvious of .500 not being good enough to win anything, it's "flip a coin" baseball. Or, the hallmark of a "wholly unreliable" team as they've been this season.

The last two days were just the latest example of it, certainly not the cause or proof of anything. Does that make more sense?

[1940757690]

The way we lost today's game and countless others this year; and with a lack of high character wins (yes, I know; the two Billy Hamilton games v. The Dodgers)....

Just don't think its our year and totally seems like the door is open for the Nats. It is very much a "feel" thing. Just like heading into game five against the Giants. They didnt even need to play the game because I've watched this game enough to just know.

Totally agree it is largely a "feel thing." A "feel thing" supported with data to be sure.

Couldn't disagree more about the substance of the feeling though. Haven't a clue whether it's "our year" in WS terms. But highly confident we'll play at least one postseason game.

[SporkLover]

The Nats represent NO threat to the Reds. They haven't and they won't. I've been posting that here for a few weeks but it keeps coming up so I figured, why not a thread on it?

I agree. The Reds/Pirates have to collapse 2011 ATL style in order for the Nats to earn a berth. Possible? Yes.... Likely? No. Has it happened before? Sure it has with the 2011 Cardinals being the most recent.

The Nats getting hot posture them well for playing spoiler though... 6 Reds-Bucs games and 3 Cards-Nats games can upend the current standings. I love sept baseball.

[redhat]

... seems like the door is open for the Nats.

The door is open. The Nats are only down four games in the loss column. They're not losing games we thought they would lose. Just swept a doubleheader from Atlanta. When a team gets this hot, team chemistry problems seem to disappear. It almost doesn't matter who they're playing, they still win.

All this doesn't mean you can't slam that door shut by playing better. My Cards will do their best to take them down next week. Your task is to win enough games to stay ahead of them.

[kaldaniels]

Again, if the Reds go 5-5. The Nats have to go 9-1 to tie.

That is not an open door.

[Norm Chortleton]

My Cards will do their best to take them down next week. Your task is to win enough games to stay ahead of them.

I'd rather you didn't. The Nats can't catch the Reds. But the Reds and/or Bucs can catch the Cards.

[redssince75]

The Nats feel pretty damn relevant to me. I hate having to "on the one hand/on the other hand" their series with the Cardinals. I would rather it be a no-brainer to root for them to sweep the Cards to help us out.

[Brutus]

Again, if the Reds go 5-5. The Nats have to go 9-1 to tie.

That is not an open door.

Yessir. ESPN lists the Nationals today with a 4.0% chance of making the playoffs. That's four times out of 100 they would catch the Reds/Pirates.

I'm not going to lose sleep over those four times out of 100 it might happen.

[Norm Chortleton]

Again, if the Reds go 5-5. The Nats have to go 9-1 to tie.

That is not an open door.

The door is closed. And the dozen deadbolts like you'd see on a NYC apt. door are in the process of being locked as well.

[redssince75]

Again, if the Reds go 5-5. The Nats have to go 9-1 to tie.

That is not an open door.

Against the Pirates, Mets, and Pirates (even with one thrown in against the Astros), 3-7 or even 2-8 wouldn't be an unheard of outlier for such a 10-game stretch. This ain't over folks.

[Brutus]

The door is open. The Nats are only down four games in the loss column. They're not losing games we thought they would lose. Just swept a doubleheader from Atlanta. When a team gets this hot, team chemistry problems seem to disappear. It almost doesn't matter who they're playing, they still win.

All this doesn't mean you can't slam that door shut by playing better. My Cards will do their best to take them down next week. Your task is to win enough games to stay ahead of them.

Playing better? The Reds are 10-6 in the month of September (.625). If they win six out of their last 10 games, the Nats would have to go 11-0 to catch the Reds.

The Reds don't need to play better. They just need to do what they're doing and they go to the playoffs.

[westofyou]

Chicken Little was wrong

[Larry Schuler]

It's fun to worry though.

[kaldaniels]

Against the Pirates, Mets, and Pirates (even with one thrown in against the Astros), 3-7 or even 2-8 wouldn't be an unheard of outlier for such a 10-game stretch. This ain't over folks.

Same could be said for the Nats. And when you throw everything together you still end up with the Reds only having a 5% chance of blowing this.

There is a 50 percent chance the Reds get eliminated in the Wild Card game.

This is one of those "it's safer to fly than drive" statistics that some people just can't wrap their heads around the statistical evidence. The Nats just seem scary. They are not.

[redssince75]

Same could be said for the Nats. And when you throw everything together you still end up with the Reds only having a 5% chance of blowing this.

There is a 50 percent chance the Reds get eliminated in the Wild Card game.

This is one of those "it's safer to fly than drive" statistics that some people just can't wrap their heads around the statistical evidence. The Nats just seem scary. They are not.

Well if you want to just play the games on paper, there was only a 12.5% chance the Giants would take 3 in a row from us last year (.5 x .5 x .5). Or even < 12.5% if you factor in "home field advantage". Yet it happened.

They don't play the games on paper. I'll wait for my chickens to hatch before counting them. And any other applicable cliches.