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Thread: The Nats are Irrelevant

  1. #46
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: The Nats are Irrelevant

    Quote Originally Posted by redssince75 View Post
    Well if you want to just play the games on paper, there was only a 12.5% chance the Giants would take 3 in a row from us last year (.5 x .5 x .5). Or even < 12.5% if you factor in "home field advantage". Yet it happened.

    They don't play the games on paper. I'll wait for my chickens to hatch before counting them. And any other applicable cliches.
    That's not how percentages work.

    That the Giants came back and won three games with a 12.5% chance doesn't make the percentages wrong. What it means is that only 12 times out of 100 will it happen. That just happened to be one of the 12.

    In this case, yes, four times out of 100 the Nationals would come back. But 96 times, they won't.

    If you had to put money down, which side would you put it on?
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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  3. #47
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: The Nats are Irrelevant

    Quote Originally Posted by redssince75 View Post
    Well if you want to just play the games on paper, there was only a 12.5% chance the Giants would take 3 in a row from us last year (.5 x .5 x .5). Or even < 12.5% if you factor in "home field advantage". Yet it happened.

    They don't play the games on paper. I'll wait for my chickens to hatch before counting them. And any other applicable cliches.
    Fair enough.

    I'm looking at a dozen eggs.

    12 chickens for sale!

  4. Likes:

    Brutus (09-18-2013)

  5. #48
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    Re: The Nats are Irrelevant

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    That's not how percentages work.

    That the Giants came back and won three games with a 12.5% chance doesn't make the percentages wrong. What it means is that only 12 times out of 100 will it happen. That just happened to be one of the 12.

    In this case, yes, four times out of 100 the Nationals would come back. But 96 times, they won't.

    If you had to put money down, which side would you put it on?
    As an objective bettor, money goes on the Reds. As a Reds fan, I'm biting my freaking nails, due to Murphy's Law.

  6. #49
    Member NebraskaRed's Avatar
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    Re: The Nats are Irrelevant

    I am 5% worried.

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    Brutus (09-18-2013),M2 (09-18-2013)


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