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Thread: Mike Leake appreciation thread

  1. #16
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    Anything that's accomplished against the Astros is pretty much irrelevant, but Leake has had a great season.

    I hate to compare, but he reminds me of a young Greg Maddux. If he got the calls Maddux did in the '90s, he'd win the Cy Young.

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  3. #17

    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jhiller21 View Post
    Anything that's accomplished against the Astros is pretty much irrelevant, but Leake has had a great season.

    I hate to compare, but he reminds me of a young Greg Maddux. If he got the calls Maddux did in the '90s, he'd win the Cy Young.
    The same thought has crossed my mind, But I didn't have the nerve to say it.
    HUBBA A man who knows everything,just can't remember it all at one time.

  4. #18
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    Fangraphs has Leake with a 1.8 WAR, ranked #58 in the majors.

    His K-rate is down slightly, his W-rate is up slightly, and his GB/FB rate is also down slightly.

    His improvement is based strictly on a better BABIP, much better HR/FB rate and better LOB%. And lots of run support.

    He appears to be be, more or less, the same pitcher as previous years, only the results are better. If he can keep his HR/FB rate under control (as he has this year), there's hope his improvement might actually continue.

  5. #19
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    I keep looking at Leake's numbers and I can't see why he is having the success he is enjoying this year vs. his other years. All of his numbers look in line with what he's done in the past, except the result stats (BABIP, HR/FB Rate etc..) yet this year he's getting better results!

    Don't get me wrong I'm not knocking the guy, I'm glad he is having the success he is having. I just can't point to any one thing and say "That's it, that's what he changed to explain the better results!"
    "I have noticed even people who claim everything is predestined, and that we can do nothing to change it, look before they cross the road." Stephen Hawking

  6. #20
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    I'm not really worried about Leake's WAR, as it is basically the same thing as FIP or xFIP, which underestimates the skill of guys like Leake and Arroyo.

    Leake is already slightly over 190 IP, with a 3.21 ERA.
    He's made great strides. It was fun seeing him carve up the Dodgers recently.
    I would like to see him improve his Quality Start percentage next year though, as it is only at 53% with 16 QS. (In contrast, Arroyo is at 73% with 22 QS).

    The guy has had a nice year. He really helped keep us in contention at the beginning of the year. I hope he stays in Cincy a long time.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  7. #21
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveman Techie View Post
    I just can't point to any one thing and say "That's it, that's what he changed to explain the better results!"
    The one thing that always stuck out like a sore thumb on his stat line was the HR/9, which was a product of an elevated HR/FB rate, which was largely isolated to pitching at GABP. (And I don't have stats to back it up but I had the perception that an unusually high percentage of the GABP gopher balls were of the ill-timed men-on-base variety.) If he changed his approach at home -- accepting more walks as the cost of not giving into the hitter in certain situations, changing the pitch mix, etc. -- then hopefully the improvement can be sustained. He's a smart guy and Price is a smart pitching coach, so I'm not dismissing the possibility.
    Not all who wander are lost

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  9. #22
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Totally agree. Who would have thought he would have the 2nd lowest ERA among starters (not counting Cueto and Cingrani). In fact, the whole starting staff is amazing with Latos at 3.14, Leake at 3.21, Bailey at 3.40, Arroyo at 3.56, not to mention part timers Cingrani at 2.92 and Cueto at 3.02. Those are 1960's numbers!

    Not to be a party pooper, but Reynolds goes tomorrow.
    Warning: With apologies to the esteemed RZ chieftains for this wholly unsupported view:

    I think Reynolds is going to surprise us tonight. He's going to do well and Charles will be able put his broom to good use. I'm also pulling for the amazin' padres to put the sweep kaibosh on the Bucs putting us just a half game out from WC Spot#1. I gotta feelin'
    Reds & Nats, 2013 LCS. Take2 (9/13) Reds but no Nats

  10. #23
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    The easy choice for our 6th starter going into the season, added to the rotation after Chappy was designated as closer again.

    5th in the NL in wins
    14th in the NL in ERA

    Most impressive to me....after a late season 'meltdown', he has rebounded to go 20 scoreless innings in his last 3 starts.

    Upped his WAR from .6 last year to 6.4 this year.


    Nice haircut Mike, and thanks for a spectacular year!
    Along with this well-deserved pat on the back, is it time to give Dusty credit for how he managed the Leake/Chapman situation before the season? Leake is the guy Chapman would have bumped from the rotation. Does anyone believe the Reds would have received better results from Chapman in the rotation paired with whoever might have been the closer? That would be a tough argument to win.

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    mth123 (09-18-2013), Mutaman (09-18-2013), REDREAD (09-18-2013)

  12. #24
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    Does anyone believe the Reds would have received better results from Chapman in the rotation paired with whoever might have been the closer? That would be a tough argument to win.
    This is the song I've been singing for a while now. Even if you assume that Chapman could transition successfully to the rotation, are you sure that he outperforms Leake AND that whoever closes does as well as Chapman has AND that (let's assume Hoover was the closer instead of Chapman most of the season) whoever pitched Hoover's set-up innings did as well as he did? That is, as you suggest, awfully tough to see happening.

  13. #25
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    I have to pat myself on the back that I have been on board the Leake train since we drafted him, I followed him in college and was always impressed and had high expectations. Glad to see him doing well, but hope he continues to have doubters, as he always seems to respond to it well.
    UNC Tar Heels 2009 National Champions 5 time NCAA Champs
    57, 82, 93, 05, 09
    Go Heels!!!!!

  14. #26
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    He's coming off a horrendous August, that continued right into his first start in September. He's won 3 in a row against a good Dodger team, the Cubs and the Astros.

    He's supposed to beat he Cubs and Astros, you know, because everyone is supposed to beat them.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #27
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    He's coming off a horrendous August, that continued right into his first start in September. He's won 3 in a row against a good Dodger team, the Cubs and the Astros.

    He's supposed to beat he Cubs and Astros, you know, because everyone is supposed to beat them.
    Why can't you just bring yourself admit he's having a very good season and deserves appreciation for it? He beat the Dodgers, and yet instead of complimenting for that, you choose to point out he also beat the Cubs and Astros and had a disastrous August (even though the four months before that were terrific).
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  17. #28
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    He's coming off a horrendous August, that continued right into his first start in September. He's won 3 in a row against a good Dodger team, the Cubs and the Astros.

    He's supposed to beat he Cubs and Astros, you know, because everyone is supposed to beat them.
    There's a difference in merely beating them and totoally blanking them.

    He's pitching real well the last three times out: 2 ER over 21.1 IP.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  18. #29
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jhiller21 View Post
    Anything that's accomplished against the Astros is pretty much irrelevant, but Leake has had a great season.

    I hate to compare, but he reminds me of a young Greg Maddux. If he got the calls Maddux did in the '90s, he'd win the Cy Young.
    I had the nerve to say it from the get go.

  19. #30
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Mike Leake appreciation thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    He's coming off a horrendous August, that continued right into his first start in September. He's won 3 in a row against a good Dodger team, the Cubs and the Astros.

    He's supposed to beat he Cubs and Astros, you know, because everyone is supposed to beat them.
    True, he had a run from Aug 1 to Sept 1 where 5 of his 6 starts were stinkers.
    That pretty much killed his QS ratio. His other work this year has been good though.

    I'm looking through Homer's game logs. He had a rough stretch from June 15 - July 13th, where 4 of 6 of his games were not QS. Leake's rough patch was worse, but it happens.

    Both have had fine years.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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